Melissa Bean's commanding position as the Democratic nominee in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, following her March primary victory in the open seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's Senate bid, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic control. The district's D+5 Cook PVI, evidenced by Kamala Harris's 53%-46% 2024 win and prior double-digit Democratic House margins, underscores its reliable blue lean in northwest Chicago suburbs like Schaumburg and Elgin. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others remain Solid or Safe Democratic, with no public general election polls showing movement. Jennifer Davis's Republican challenge faces structural hurdles amid fundraising gaps. Shifts could arise from scandals, a national midterm wave, or legal issues before November's general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-08 House Election Winner
IL-08 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,147 KL.
90%
Republican Party
$2,500 KL.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melissa Bean's commanding position as the Democratic nominee in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, following her March primary victory in the open seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's Senate bid, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic control. The district's D+5 Cook PVI, evidenced by Kamala Harris's 53%-46% 2024 win and prior double-digit Democratic House margins, underscores its reliable blue lean in northwest Chicago suburbs like Schaumburg and Elgin. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others remain Solid or Safe Democratic, with no public general election polls showing movement. Jennifer Davis's Republican challenge faces structural hurdles amid fundraising gaps. Shifts could arise from scandals, a national midterm wave, or legal issues before November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,647Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melissa Bean's commanding position as the Democratic nominee in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, following her March primary victory in the open seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's Senate bid, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic control. The district's D+5 Cook PVI, evidenced by Kamala Harris's 53%-46% 2024 win and prior double-digit Democratic House margins, underscores its reliable blue lean in northwest Chicago suburbs like Schaumburg and Elgin. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others remain Solid or Safe Democratic, with no public general election polls showing movement. Jennifer Davis's Republican challenge faces structural hurdles amid fundraising gaps. Shifts could arise from scandals, a national midterm wave, or legal issues before November's general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$4,647Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Melissa Bean's commanding position as the Democratic nominee in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, following her March primary victory in the open seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's Senate bid, drives trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability for Democratic control. The district's D+5 Cook PVI, evidenced by Kamala Harris's 53%-46% 2024 win and prior double-digit Democratic House margins, underscores its reliable blue lean in northwest Chicago suburbs like Schaumburg and Elgin. Ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others remain Solid or Safe Democratic, with no public general election polls showing movement. Jennifer Davis's Republican challenge faces structural hurdles amid fundraising gaps. Shifts could arise from scandals, a national midterm wave, or legal issues before November's general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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