The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$23,338,700 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
10%
November 30
14%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
19%
June 30, 2027
32%
$23,338,700 KL.
August 15
$38,508 KL.
<1%
August 22
$22,227 KL.
1%
August 31
$1,115,921 KL.
3%
September 30
$422,102 KL.
7%
October 31
$7,505 KL.
10%
November 30
$8,810 KL.
14%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$3,961,609 KL.
19%
June 30, 2027
$215,642 KL.
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,338,700Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$23,338,700Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with a three-member interim council assuming duties before the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader on March 9. This managed transition amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic pressures has anchored trader consensus around continuity under the new supreme leader, resulting in low probabilities for near-term dates through late 2026. Markets assign modestly higher odds to mid-2027 outcomes due to persistent uncertainties around IRGC influence, economic strains, potential escalations with Israel or the U.S., and the Assembly of Experts' future role in any further leadership shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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