Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhamenei # posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
Khamenei # posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
50-54 87%
55-59 87%
60+ 87%
<5 46%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 14, 2026
<5
46%
5-9
45%
10-14
45%
15-19
45%
20-24
45%
25-29
45%
30-34
45%
35-39
4%
40-44
3%
45-49
2%
50-54
87%
55-59
87%
60+
87%
50-54 87%
55-59 87%
60+ 87%
<5 46%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 14, 2026
<5
$0 KL.
46%
5-9
$0 KL.
45%
10-14
$0 KL.
45%
15-19
$0 KL.
45%
20-24
$0 KL.
45%
25-29
$0 KL.
45%
30-34
$0 KL.
45%
35-39
$35 KL.
4%
40-44
$32 KL.
3%
45-49
$32 KL.
2%
50-54
$82 KL.
87%
55-59
$82 KL.
87%
60+
$82 KL.
87%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Khối lượng
$344Ngày kết thúc
Jul 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$344Ngày kết thúc
Jul 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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