Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from major global systems, indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C for Guangzhou on September 12 under stable northeast flow, partly cloudy conditions, and dew points near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 24.5°C for the date while reflecting the current absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as heavy rainfall or northerly surges. The 99% market-implied probability for 25°C captures traders' assessment of limited forecast spread and minimal upside or downside risk from ongoing observations. A late-day shift in steering patterns or localized measurement variance at official stations could still adjust the final recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the narrow ensemble range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 12?
25°C 99%
20°C 2.1%
21°C 1.9%
23°C 1.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99%
20°C 2.1%
21°C 1.9%
23°C 1.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
$63 KL.
1%
19°C
$45 KL.
1%
20°C
$15 KL.
2%
21°C
$33 KL.
2%
22°C
$87 KL.
2%
23°C
$93 KL.
2%
24°C
$72 KL.
1%
25°C
$166 KL.
99%
26°C
$15 KL.
<1%
27°C
$30 KL.
<1%
28°C or higher
$56 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from major global systems, indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C for Guangzhou on September 12 under stable northeast flow, partly cloudy conditions, and dew points near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 24.5°C for the date while reflecting the current absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as heavy rainfall or northerly surges. The 99% market-implied probability for 25°C captures traders' assessment of limited forecast spread and minimal upside or downside risk from ongoing observations. A late-day shift in steering patterns or localized measurement variance at official stations could still adjust the final recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the narrow ensemble range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$675Ngày kết thúc
Sep 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from major global systems, indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C for Guangzhou on September 12 under stable northeast flow, partly cloudy conditions, and dew points near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 24.5°C for the date while reflecting the current absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as heavy rainfall or northerly surges. The 99% market-implied probability for 25°C captures traders' assessment of limited forecast spread and minimal upside or downside risk from ongoing observations. A late-day shift in steering patterns or localized measurement variance at official stations could still adjust the final recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the narrow ensemble range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$675Ngày kết thúc
Sep 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from major global systems, indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C for Guangzhou on September 12 under stable northeast flow, partly cloudy conditions, and dew points near 20–22°C. This aligns closely with the climatological average low of 24.5°C for the date while reflecting the current absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as heavy rainfall or northerly surges. The 99% market-implied probability for 25°C captures traders' assessment of limited forecast spread and minimal upside or downside risk from ongoing observations. A late-day shift in steering patterns or localized measurement variance at official stations could still adjust the final recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the narrow ensemble range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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