**Current numerical weather models project an overnight minimum near 26°C for Jinan on August 25, driven by persistent warm southerly flow, high humidity, and only partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.** Recent days have featured similar conditions with lows in the mid-20s °C amid a warmer-than-average August pattern across northern China. Light winds and urban heat effects in the city further support elevated minima, aligning with the 52.5% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing or localized showers could allow slight cooling toward 21–22°C, which accounts for the closely matched 47% odds on the 18–21°C outcomes, though probabilities for sub-18°C remain negligible given the absence of any approaching cold front or significant synoptic shift.