**Forecast models indicate Wellington's overnight low on September 20 will likely settle between 6–8°C, driven by southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air and variable cloud cover modulating radiative cooling.** Springtime variability in the region, with frequent frontal passages and orographic effects from surrounding hills, creates narrow differences among these thresholds. Official measurements at stations like Wellington Airport reflect these conditions, where even modest shifts in wind speed or timing of clearing skies can alter the minimum by 1–2°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 6–9°C because ensemble guidance shows overlapping probabilities without a dominant signal, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for coastal mid-latitude sites. Updated model runs and real-time observations will refine resolution as the night progresses.