Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNew Mexico Senate Election Winner
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
$25,935 KL.
$25,935 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
97%
Republican
4%
$25,935 KL.
$25,935 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$16,676 KL.
97%
Republican
$9,258 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$25,935Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$25,935Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp