Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the June 2 Democratic primary, with recent polling showing him ahead by 60 points against challenger Matt Dodson. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in Senate contests, last broken by a Republican in 2002, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in November. The Republican field remains limited, with write-in candidate Larry Marker and disqualifications leaving no competitive major-party alternative on the ballot. This setup has produced the current 95.6% implied probability for a Democrat. A primary upset or late Republican surge could still shift odds, though structural barriers and the state's electoral history make such outcomes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNew Mexico Senate Election Winner
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
$15,169 KL.
$15,169 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
96%
Republican
3%
$15,169 KL.
$15,169 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$8,099 KL.
96%
Republican
$7,070 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the June 2 Democratic primary, with recent polling showing him ahead by 60 points against challenger Matt Dodson. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in Senate contests, last broken by a Republican in 2002, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in November. The Republican field remains limited, with write-in candidate Larry Marker and disqualifications leaving no competitive major-party alternative on the ballot. This setup has produced the current 95.6% implied probability for a Democrat. A primary upset or late Republican surge could still shift odds, though structural barriers and the state's electoral history make such outcomes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$15,169Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the June 2 Democratic primary, with recent polling showing him ahead by 60 points against challenger Matt Dodson. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in Senate contests, last broken by a Republican in 2002, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in November. The Republican field remains limited, with write-in candidate Larry Marker and disqualifications leaving no competitive major-party alternative on the ballot. This setup has produced the current 95.6% implied probability for a Democrat. A primary upset or late Republican surge could still shift odds, though structural barriers and the state's electoral history make such outcomes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$15,169Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the June 2 Democratic primary, with recent polling showing him ahead by 60 points against challenger Matt Dodson. New Mexico's consistent Democratic lean in Senate contests, last broken by a Republican in 2002, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory in November. The Republican field remains limited, with write-in candidate Larry Marker and disqualifications leaving no competitive major-party alternative on the ballot. This setup has produced the current 95.6% implied probability for a Democrat. A primary upset or late Republican surge could still shift odds, though structural barriers and the state's electoral history make such outcomes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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