Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary with 48.5% of the vote against Rep. Haley Stevens' 47.5%, producing a margin under 1 percentage point once more than 95% of ballots were counted. The contest between the progressive challenger and the moderate establishment candidate featured heavy outside spending, competing endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and a late withdrawal by state Sen. Mallory McMorrow that consolidated the field into a head-to-head matchup. Certified tallies and Associated Press projections have since locked in the narrow result, leaving little room for material shifts absent a protracted recount or significant reporting error. Traders price the sub-5% outcome near certainty because historical primary margins in similar high-spending Michigan races have rarely reversed after such complete vote reporting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed <5% 99.4%
El-Sayed 15–20% <1%
El-Sayed 5–10% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
$216,897 KL.
$216,897 KL.
Aug 3, 2026
El-Sayed 25%+
<1%
El-Sayed 20–25%
<1%
El-Sayed 15–20%
1%
El-Sayed 10–15%
<1%
El-Sayed 5–10%
<1%
El-Sayed <5%
99%
El-Sayed <5% 99.4%
El-Sayed 15–20% <1%
El-Sayed 5–10% <1%
El-Sayed 25%+ <1%
$216,897 KL.
$216,897 KL.
Aug 3, 2026
El-Sayed 25%+
$13,319 KL.
<1%
El-Sayed 20–25%
$10,054 KL.
<1%
El-Sayed 15–20%
$27,246 KL.
1%
El-Sayed 10–15%
$52,932 KL.
<1%
El-Sayed 5–10%
$60,762 KL.
<1%
El-Sayed <5%
$21,508 KL.
99%
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary with 48.5% of the vote against Rep. Haley Stevens' 47.5%, producing a margin under 1 percentage point once more than 95% of ballots were counted. The contest between the progressive challenger and the moderate establishment candidate featured heavy outside spending, competing endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and a late withdrawal by state Sen. Mallory McMorrow that consolidated the field into a head-to-head matchup. Certified tallies and Associated Press projections have since locked in the narrow result, leaving little room for material shifts absent a protracted recount or significant reporting error. Traders price the sub-5% outcome near certainty because historical primary margins in similar high-spending Michigan races have rarely reversed after such complete vote reporting.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Thị trường mở: Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$216,897Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary with 48.5% of the vote against Rep. Haley Stevens' 47.5%, producing a margin under 1 percentage point once more than 95% of ballots were counted. The contest between the progressive challenger and the moderate establishment candidate featured heavy outside spending, competing endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and a late withdrawal by state Sen. Mallory McMorrow that consolidated the field into a head-to-head matchup. Certified tallies and Associated Press projections have since locked in the narrow result, leaving little room for material shifts absent a protracted recount or significant reporting error. Traders price the sub-5% outcome near certainty because historical primary margins in similar high-spending Michigan races have rarely reversed after such complete vote reporting.
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Khối lượng
$216,897Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abdul El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat in the August 4, 2026 primary with 48.5% of the vote against Rep. Haley Stevens' 47.5%, producing a margin under 1 percentage point once more than 95% of ballots were counted. The contest between the progressive challenger and the moderate establishment candidate featured heavy outside spending, competing endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and a late withdrawal by state Sen. Mallory McMorrow that consolidated the field into a head-to-head matchup. Certified tallies and Associated Press projections have since locked in the narrow result, leaving little room for material shifts absent a protracted recount or significant reporting error. Traders price the sub-5% outcome near certainty because historical primary margins in similar high-spending Michigan races have rarely reversed after such complete vote reporting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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