Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong hold on Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party amid no Republican candidates qualifying for the race. The U.S. Supreme Court's recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling declared the state's House maps an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, suspending the May 16 party primaries—including Carter's contest against sole Democratic challenger Renada Collins—and prompting a redraw process ahead of the November 3 general election. Carter's 2024 outright win with 60% and fundraising edge reinforce the wisdom-of-crowds assessment, though map revisions could introduce modest uncertainty reflected in Republicans' 10% odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLA-02 House Election Winner
LA-02 House Election Winner
$41,288 KL.
$41,288 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
10%
$41,288 KL.
$41,288 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,605 KL.
86%
Republican Party
$19,684 KL.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong hold on Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party amid no Republican candidates qualifying for the race. The U.S. Supreme Court's recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling declared the state's House maps an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, suspending the May 16 party primaries—including Carter's contest against sole Democratic challenger Renada Collins—and prompting a redraw process ahead of the November 3 general election. Carter's 2024 outright win with 60% and fundraising edge reinforce the wisdom-of-crowds assessment, though map revisions could introduce modest uncertainty reflected in Republicans' 10% odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$41,288Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong hold on Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party amid no Republican candidates qualifying for the race. The U.S. Supreme Court's recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling declared the state's House maps an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, suspending the May 16 party primaries—including Carter's contest against sole Democratic challenger Renada Collins—and prompting a redraw process ahead of the November 3 general election. Carter's 2024 outright win with 60% and fundraising edge reinforce the wisdom-of-crowds assessment, though map revisions could introduce modest uncertainty reflected in Republicans' 10% odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$41,288Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong hold on Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party amid no Republican candidates qualifying for the race. The U.S. Supreme Court's recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling declared the state's House maps an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, suspending the May 16 party primaries—including Carter's contest against sole Democratic challenger Renada Collins—and prompting a redraw process ahead of the November 3 general election. Carter's 2024 outright win with 60% and fundraising edge reinforce the wisdom-of-crowds assessment, though map revisions could introduce modest uncertainty reflected in Republicans' 10% odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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