Google's continued delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally promised for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July—have shaped trader sentiment, with internal performance shortfalls cited in credible reporting as the core issue. The July 21 release of lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, alongside confirmation that the Pro model remains in partner testing with training now underway on Gemini 4, reinforces expectations of further slippage. No public release date or major August updates have emerged, sustaining the 53% market-implied probability of no launch by August 31 while compressing odds across specific dates. Traders are watching for any partner feedback signals or earnings commentary that could shift the timeline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by August 31 48.0%
August 31 10.1%
August 27 5.9%
August 10 5.7%
$222,739 KL.
$222,739 KL.
Aug 10, 2026
August 9
<1%
August 10
6%
August 11
1%
August 12
3%
August 13
2%
August 14
<1%
August 15
<1%
August 16
3%
August 17
5%
August 18
4%
August 19
4%
August 20
1%
August 21
1%
August 22
<1%
August 23
<1%
August 24
6%
August 25
3%
August 26
4%
August 27
6%
August 28
2%
August 29
1%
August 30
1%
August 31
10%
No release by August 31
48%
No release by August 31 48.0%
August 31 10.1%
August 27 5.9%
August 10 5.7%
$222,739 KL.
$222,739 KL.
Aug 10, 2026
August 9
$2,945 KL.
<1%
August 10
$65,131 KL.
6%
August 11
$9,097 KL.
1%
August 12
$10,313 KL.
3%
August 13
$7,065 KL.
2%
August 14
$3,447 KL.
<1%
August 15
$2,099 KL.
<1%
August 16
$2,219 KL.
3%
August 17
$2,571 KL.
5%
August 18
$3,406 KL.
4%
August 19
$2,729 KL.
4%
August 20
$2,263 KL.
1%
August 21
$1,841 KL.
1%
August 22
$1,703 KL.
<1%
August 23
$1,462 KL.
<1%
August 24
$3,659 KL.
6%
August 25
$4,271 KL.
3%
August 26
$3,319 KL.
4%
August 27
$7,647 KL.
6%
August 28
$3,159 KL.
2%
August 29
$4,321 KL.
1%
August 30
$1,842 KL.
1%
August 31
$4,800 KL.
10%
No release by August 31
$25,842 KL.
48%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's continued delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally promised for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July—have shaped trader sentiment, with internal performance shortfalls cited in credible reporting as the core issue. The July 21 release of lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, alongside confirmation that the Pro model remains in partner testing with training now underway on Gemini 4, reinforces expectations of further slippage. No public release date or major August updates have emerged, sustaining the 53% market-implied probability of no launch by August 31 while compressing odds across specific dates. Traders are watching for any partner feedback signals or earnings commentary that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$222,739Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's continued delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally promised for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July—have shaped trader sentiment, with internal performance shortfalls cited in credible reporting as the core issue. The July 21 release of lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, alongside confirmation that the Pro model remains in partner testing with training now underway on Gemini 4, reinforces expectations of further slippage. No public release date or major August updates have emerged, sustaining the 53% market-implied probability of no launch by August 31 while compressing odds across specific dates. Traders are watching for any partner feedback signals or earnings commentary that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$222,739Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's continued delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally promised for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July—have shaped trader sentiment, with internal performance shortfalls cited in credible reporting as the core issue. The July 21 release of lighter variants like Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite, alongside confirmation that the Pro model remains in partner testing with training now underway on Gemini 4, reinforces expectations of further slippage. No public release date or major August updates have emerged, sustaining the 53% market-implied probability of no launch by August 31 while compressing odds across specific dates. Traders are watching for any partner feedback signals or earnings commentary that could shift the timeline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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