Recent UK local election setbacks and multiple ministerial resignations have elevated trader assessments of Starmer departing office before 2027, underscoring Labour Party strains following his 2024 victory. Colombia’s scheduled May 31 presidential vote and Petro’s constitutional ineligibility for reelection place him as the next most likely to exit by year-end, aligning with term limits rather than sudden removal. Lower probabilities for Díaz-Canel, Zelenskyy, and others reflect entrenched positions amid domestic or external pressures, while distant odds for Netanyahu, Erdoğan, and Xi capture limited near-term vulnerabilities based on institutional stability and historical patterns. These implied probabilities synthesize trader views on electoral cycles, approval trends, and procedural deadlines across varied political systems.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtStarmer - UK PM 48%
Petro - Colombia President 38%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.4%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1.9%
$364,080 KL.
$364,080 KL.
Starmer - UK PM
48%
Petro - Colombia President
38%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
9%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
None before 2027
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 48%
Petro - Colombia President 38%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.4%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1.9%
$364,080 KL.
$364,080 KL.
Starmer - UK PM
48%
Petro - Colombia President
38%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
9%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
None before 2027
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK local election setbacks and multiple ministerial resignations have elevated trader assessments of Starmer departing office before 2027, underscoring Labour Party strains following his 2024 victory. Colombia’s scheduled May 31 presidential vote and Petro’s constitutional ineligibility for reelection place him as the next most likely to exit by year-end, aligning with term limits rather than sudden removal. Lower probabilities for Díaz-Canel, Zelenskyy, and others reflect entrenched positions amid domestic or external pressures, while distant odds for Netanyahu, Erdoğan, and Xi capture limited near-term vulnerabilities based on institutional stability and historical patterns. These implied probabilities synthesize trader views on electoral cycles, approval trends, and procedural deadlines across varied political systems.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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