The strengthening El Niño, now projected with over 90% likelihood of reaching very strong levels by fall, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment on Seattle's September precipitation totals. NOAA's updated Climate Prediction Center outlook shifted toward above-normal rainfall for the Pacific Northwest, citing troughing and model consensus for enhanced early-month precipitation, though typical El Niño patterns favor drier conditions across the region overall. This creates genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely bunched implied probabilities, with historical September averages near 1.8 inches and recent dry August baselines adding to the range of possible outcomes. Upcoming subseasonal model runs and the first 7-10 days of observations will likely refine the market's assessment of total accumulation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPrecipitation in Seattle in September?
Precipitation in Seattle in September?
<1" 27%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 17%
2.5-3" 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
27%
1-1.5"
20%
1.5-2"
17%
2.5-3"
16%
2-2.5"
14%
3-4"
11%
>4"
7%
<1" 27%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 17%
2.5-3" 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
$215 KL.
27%
1-1.5"
$118 KL.
20%
1.5-2"
$112 KL.
17%
2.5-3"
$182 KL.
16%
2-2.5"
$130 KL.
14%
3-4"
$203 KL.
11%
>4"
$203 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The strengthening El Niño, now projected with over 90% likelihood of reaching very strong levels by fall, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment on Seattle's September precipitation totals. NOAA's updated Climate Prediction Center outlook shifted toward above-normal rainfall for the Pacific Northwest, citing troughing and model consensus for enhanced early-month precipitation, though typical El Niño patterns favor drier conditions across the region overall. This creates genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely bunched implied probabilities, with historical September averages near 1.8 inches and recent dry August baselines adding to the range of possible outcomes. Upcoming subseasonal model runs and the first 7-10 days of observations will likely refine the market's assessment of total accumulation.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,164Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The strengthening El Niño, now projected with over 90% likelihood of reaching very strong levels by fall, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment on Seattle's September precipitation totals. NOAA's updated Climate Prediction Center outlook shifted toward above-normal rainfall for the Pacific Northwest, citing troughing and model consensus for enhanced early-month precipitation, though typical El Niño patterns favor drier conditions across the region overall. This creates genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely bunched implied probabilities, with historical September averages near 1.8 inches and recent dry August baselines adding to the range of possible outcomes. Upcoming subseasonal model runs and the first 7-10 days of observations will likely refine the market's assessment of total accumulation.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$1,164Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The strengthening El Niño, now projected with over 90% likelihood of reaching very strong levels by fall, forms the main driver behind trader sentiment on Seattle's September precipitation totals. NOAA's updated Climate Prediction Center outlook shifted toward above-normal rainfall for the Pacific Northwest, citing troughing and model consensus for enhanced early-month precipitation, though typical El Niño patterns favor drier conditions across the region overall. This creates genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely bunched implied probabilities, with historical September averages near 1.8 inches and recent dry August baselines adding to the range of possible outcomes. Upcoming subseasonal model runs and the first 7-10 days of observations will likely refine the market's assessment of total accumulation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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