Persistent deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations continues to drive the overwhelming trader consensus against a Putin-Zelenskyy handshake by June 30. Recent signals from Moscow indicate openness to a direct meeting only after experts finalize a comprehensive, long-term peace agreement, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas positions and rejecting further talks until that step occurs. A brief three-day ceasefire in mid-May around Victory Day produced no breakthrough on core issues such as security guarantees, territorial lines, or implementation mechanisms. With formal talks stalled since earlier rounds and no scheduled summit or deadline forcing rapid closure, the six-week window leaves insufficient time for the required diplomatic sequencing. Late breakthroughs in U.S.-mediated channels or unexpected concessions remain theoretically possible but face entrenched barriers that explain the current pricing.