Putin’s position remains anchored by 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits, allowing him to serve until 2036, combined with his decisive 2024 re-election and tight control over security services, parliament, and regional elites. As of August 2026 he continues to chair high-level meetings, announce military programs, and address international forums, with no verified signals of resignation or incapacitation. The September 2026 State Duma elections are expected to reinforce United Russia’s majority and the existing power structure. While the Ukraine conflict generates external pressure and occasional domestic strains, historical precedent shows wartime leadership often consolidates rather than weakens authoritarian incumbents. Traders therefore assign low probability to removal by year-end absent an unforeseen health event or elite fracture.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPutin replaces head of Udmurtia Republic after surprise resignation
On July 29, Putin replaced the head of Udmurtia following an unexpected resignation, reflecting internal political instability but also Putin's continued control over regional appointments, which tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin replaces head of Udmurtia Republic following surprise resignation
August 31, 2026 dips to 1%1%
The sudden resignation of a regional leader and Putin’s swift replacement raised speculation about internal political instability and possible elite purges within Putin’s administration.
Putin replaces Udmurtia republic head after surprise resignation
Alexander Brechalov unexpectedly resigned as head of Udmurtia republic, prompting Putin to appoint a replacement. This was a regional political reshuffle with no connection to Putin's presidential status.
Putin replaces head of Udmurtia Republic after surprise resignation
June 30, 2027 dips to 15%1%
On July 29, Putin replaced the head of Udmurtia following an unexpected resignation, highlighting ongoing political reshuffling and potential instability within regional leadership under Putin's administration.
Putin cracks down on political opposition amid rising public anger
September 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
In response to growing public dissatisfaction and the fuel crisis, Putin intensified repression of opposition figures and parties, further consolidating his control but signaling regime fragility.
Russian opposition politician reports Kremlin pressure to stop anti-war campaign
On July 27, 2026, a Russian opposition politician stated that the Kremlin was pressuring him to cease his anti-war political campaign, indicating ongoing internal political repression but no direct threat to Putin's presidency. This maintained market skepticism about imminent leadership change.
Putin addresses State Duma amid ongoing Western sanctions and internal pressures
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%4%
On July 27, 2026, Vladimir Putin met with outgoing State Duma deputies, acknowledging ongoing Western sanctions and pressures on Russia. This public statement reinforced Putin's continued hold on power, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of his near-term exit.
Putin meets with State Duma deputies, emphasizes resilience amid sanctions and war
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%1%
Putin held a meeting with lawmakers, highlighting Russia's endurance under Western sanctions and ongoing war pressures. This event reinforced his continued control and was a signal against imminent resignation or removal, tempering market fears.
Putin cancels Navy Day parade amid fears of Ukrainian strikes
June 30, 2027 dips to 17%2%
Putin abruptly canceled Russia’s Navy Day parade due to concerns over Ukrainian attacks and expressed frustration in a meeting with naval commanders. This incident underscored the increasing military and political pressures facing Putin, affecting market sentiment about his presidency's stability.
Putin reaffirms commitment to war aims in speech to Russian Navy personnel
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%3%
In a public speech, Putin reiterated Russia's maximalist war aims and confidence in victory, signaling no intention to step down or negotiate peace, which reinforced market expectations of his continued presidency.
Putin cancels Navy Day parade amid fears of Ukrainian strikes, displays frustration
On July 26, 2026, Putin canceled Russia’s Navy Day parade due to concerns over Ukrainian drone attacks and expressed anger during a meeting with naval officers, signaling a public display of vulnerability and internal challenges.
Putin delivers speech reaffirming Russia's war aims and unity
August 31, 2026 dips to 1%1%
On July 26, Putin addressed military personnel, emphasizing national unity and commitment to war objectives despite hardships, reinforcing his grip on power and likely contributing to the market's low odds for his exit by August 31, 2026.
Putin ambushed during public appearance after months in bunker
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
On July 25, 2026, Putin’s rare public appearance ended in a televised meeting that went off-script, interpreted as a sign of vulnerability. This event contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability and future as president.
Putin ambushed during televised meeting after months out of public view
June 30, 2027 dips to 17%2%
Putin's rare public appearance ended in an unexpected confrontation, reflecting possible weakening of his authority and increasing political pressure within Russia.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev publicly criticizes Putin during Omsk meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
Tokayev's unexpected public criticism of Putin during a bilateral meeting exposed cracks in Putin's regional alliances and heightened market concerns about his political stability.
Putin publicly ambushed by Kazakh President during televised meeting
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%3%
Putin faced a public rebuke from Kazakhstan’s president, exposing cracks in his regional influence and signaling political vulnerability, which contributed to market uncertainty about his presidency.
Kazakh President publicly criticizes Putin during televised meeting
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
On July 25, Kazakh President Tokayev publicly questioned the Kremlin's war narrative during a meeting with Putin, visibly unsettling the Russian leader and signaling regional elite dissent, which affected market perceptions of Putin's grip on power.
Putin ambushed during rare public appearance in Omsk
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%3%
Putin’s first domestic trip in months ended in a televised meeting that went off the rails, highlighting his vulnerability and fueling speculation about his weakening grip on power, which influenced market prices downward.
ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan removed from office after issuing Putin arrest warrant
On July 24, 2026, Karim Khan, ICC Chief Prosecutor who issued an arrest warrant for Putin, was stripped of his immunity and position, risking legal consequences. This development highlighted international legal pressures on Putin but did not directly affect his presidency status.
Putin's inner circle reportedly turns against him amid war losses
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Reports emerged that Putin's most trusted allies were secretly blaming him for Russia's war losses and distancing themselves, signaling elite dissatisfaction and increasing market speculation about his political stability.
Ukrainian President Zelensky claims Putin’s inner circle turning against him
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%3%
On July 23, 2026, Zelensky stated that figures close to Putin have reached out to Kyiv officials blaming Putin for the war and losses. This indicated elite fractures and increased market concerns about Putin's grip on power.
Putin’s inner circle reportedly turns against him amid war losses
August 31, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Reports emerged that Putin’s closest allies have privately blamed him for Russia’s war failures, reflecting deepening elite dissatisfaction and increasing political instability.
Russian State Duma passes bill expanding military recruitment
The Russian State Duma passed legislation expanding the number of Russians eligible for military service, reflecting ongoing military pressures and internal mobilization efforts. This legislative move underscored the Kremlin's attempts to maintain control amid war challenges, affecting market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Putin leads meeting on economic issues amid ongoing challenges
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%1%
Putin chaired a meeting on economic issues at the Kremlin, signaling continued active leadership despite internal pressures and public dissatisfaction, which helped stabilize market expectations about his presidency.
Putin leads economic meeting amid growing domestic challenges
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
On July 22, Putin chaired a meeting focused on economic issues, signaling efforts to manage the worsening economic situation caused by sanctions and the war. This event reflected ongoing attempts to maintain control despite mounting pressures.
Russia suspends government bond auctions amid financial strain
June 30, 2027 dips to 16%3%
On July 21, 2026, Russia's Finance Ministry halted federal bond auctions due to rising borrowing costs and weak investor demand, reflecting economic stress that could undermine Putin's regime stability. This financial pressure was a factor in market considerations of Putin's tenure.
Russia suspends government bond auctions amid rising borrowing costs
Russia's Finance Ministry suspended federal government bond auctions due to climbing borrowing costs and weak investor demand, complicating budget financing. This financial strain added to concerns about Putin's political and economic control, influencing market sentiment.
Rising public dissatisfaction and economic woes test Putin's grip on Russia
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Reports of fuel shortages, economic difficulties, and public unhappiness increased pressure on Putin's regime, reflected in market price declines for his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin faces growing public unhappiness amid economic woes and fuel shortages
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Reports highlighted increasing dissatisfaction with Putin among Russians due to economic difficulties and fuel shortages, signaling weakening public support. Despite this, no official moves toward resignation or removal occurred, keeping market probabilities low but volatile.
Anonymous trader places nearly $500K bet on Putin leaving presidency by end of 2026
An anonymous Polymarket trader made a large wager of approximately $490,000 that Putin would cease to be president by December 31, 2026, signaling increased market speculation and perceived risk of his exit despite no official resignation or removal. This bet briefly influenced market sentiment but did not result in immediate price changes.
Detention of Putin's longtime associate Ilya Traber signals elite turmoil
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
On July 20, 2026, reports emerged of the detention of Ilya Traber, a close Putin associate, by the FSB on suspicion of involvement in a contract killing, highlighting infighting and instability within Putin's inner circle, which affected market sentiment.
Putin reportedly confined to Kremlin amid assassination fears and paranoia
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
By July 20, 2026, reports indicated Putin was largely confined within the Kremlin due to rising assassination fears and paranoia. This suggested increased internal security concerns but did not indicate any official change in his presidency, contributing to market uncertainty but not a decisive shift.
Putin's government invests heavily in longevity research amid health concerns
July 31, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Reports on July 19 highlighted Putin's obsession with longevity, including state-funded projects on gene therapy and organ replacement, reflecting ongoing concerns about his health but no indication of imminent resignation or removal. This contributed to sustained low market odds for his exit by July 31, 2026.
Unverified reports of coup planning within Russia’s General Staff emerge
Rumors surfaced alleging some officers in Russia's General Staff were considering a coup due to fears of repression if the Ukraine war ends unfavorably. These unconfirmed reports increased uncertainty but lacked confirmation, limiting market impact.
Putin's government invests heavily in longevity research amid health rumors
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Reports surfaced about Putin's personal and governmental focus on anti-aging and longevity research, including gene therapy and organ replacement, suggesting efforts to extend his political tenure despite health concerns. This may have tempered market fears of his imminent exit.
Putin's government pushes ambitious longevity and immortality research
Putin's focus on longevity research, including gene therapy and anti-aging treatments, was widely reported, reflecting his personal health concerns and possibly affecting market perceptions of his political future.
Putin appears expressionless at Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony, sparking health speculation
Putin's unusually rigid facial expression during a public memorial event reignited global speculation about his health, contributing to market concerns about his ability to continue as president.
Putin pushes ambitious longevity and immortality research programs
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
Putin's government invested heavily in anti-aging and longevity research, signaling his intent to maintain power long-term despite health rumors, which tempered market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin meets North Korean Foreign Minister, thanks for support in Ukraine war
On July 19, 2026, Putin met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui at the Kremlin, expressing gratitude for Pyongyang's support in the Ukraine conflict. This high-level diplomatic engagement reinforced Putin's international alliances and political standing, contributing to market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin pushes ambitious longevity and immortality research projects
Putin's government announced large investments in anti-aging and longevity research, reflecting his personal focus on health and survival, which influenced market speculation about his political future.
Putin meets North Korean foreign minister, thanks for support in Ukraine war
On July 19, 2026, Putin held a high-level diplomatic meeting with North Korea's foreign minister, expressing gratitude for Pyongyang's support in the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement reinforced Putin's international standing and political control, supporting market expectations of his continued presidency.
Kremlin elite infighting intensifies with arrests of Putin's close associates
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
Reports emerged of a brutal wave of arrests within Putin's inner circle, including influential businessmen and officials once considered untouchable. This internal power struggle suggested growing paranoia and instability in the Kremlin but did not directly threaten Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty.
Putin critic convicted, barred from parliament campaign
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 17, 2026, a Kremlin critic was convicted and barred from running for parliament, signaling Kremlin efforts to suppress dissent and maintain regime stability. This likely contributed to a decline in market odds for Putin's removal by December 31, 2026.
Opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin detained and faces court hearing
Boris Nadezhdin, an anti-war politician and former presidential hopeful, was detained and scheduled for a court hearing, reflecting ongoing repression of political opposition. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's strong grip on power, limiting market expectations of his removal by December 31, 2026.
Moscow court orders Ilya Remeslo held in pretrial detention for two months
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
The Basmanny District Court in Moscow ordered Ilya Remeslo to remain in pretrial detention, reinforcing the government's crackdown on dissent and signaling no immediate political transition. This contributed to further decline in market odds for Putin's removal by September 30, 2026.
Pro-Kremlin activist who turned on Putin arrested in crackdown
On July 17, 2026, Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin blogger who publicly denounced Putin and the Ukraine war, was arrested on charges of spreading false information, signaling intensified repression of dissent and contributing to market uncertainty.
Anti-war Russian politician convicted, limiting opposition to Putin
July 31, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Boris Nadezhdin, a critic of Putin and the war, was convicted on charges that barred him from campaigning, signaling continued suppression of dissent and consolidation of Putin's power despite challenges.
Opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
September 30, 2026 dips to 2%2%
Boris Nadezhdin, a prominent anti-war critic of Putin, was convicted on charges that prevent him from running in the 2026 parliamentary elections, signaling intensified political repression ahead of the vote.
Pro-Kremlin blogger turned Putin critic Ilya Remeslo detained
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ilya Remeslo, a former loyalist blogger who publicly denounced Putin and called for his resignation, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the armed forces. This crackdown on dissent signaled increasing internal pressure on Putin's regime, influencing market perceptions of his political vulnerability.
Russian authorities detain pro-Kremlin blogger critical of Putin
On July 17, 2026, Russian police detained Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic of Putin, on charges of spreading false information about the military. This crackdown on dissent signaled internal political instability but did not directly affect Putin's presidency status.
Ilya Remeslo, former pro-Kremlin blogger critical of Putin, arrested for spreading 'fake news'
The arrest of a vocal Putin critic for spreading 'fake news' about the war indicated a crackdown on dissent, reflecting political pressure and instability that influenced market perceptions of Putin's tenure.
Pro-Kremlin blogger critical of Putin detained amid crackdown on dissent
Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic of Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine war, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the Russian military. This intensified crackdown on dissent signaled Kremlin's efforts to suppress opposition ahead of parliamentary elections, reflecting internal political pressure but not leadership change.
Anti-war Russian politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
The conviction of a prominent Putin critic ahead of the September 2026 elections underscored the Kremlin's crackdown on dissent, signaling political repression that affected market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic Ilya Remeslo detained amid crackdown
Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin blogger who publicly called for Putin's resignation, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the armed forces. This intensified crackdown on dissent highlighted internal pressures on Putin's regime, affecting market sentiment about his presidency's durability.
Putin critic Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
The conviction of a prominent Putin critic on charges related to extremist symbols and his detention increased perceptions of political repression, contributing to market uncertainty about Putin’s hold on power.
Pro-Kremlin blogger Ilya Remeslo detained for criticizing Putin
On July 17, 2026, Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin blogger turned fierce critic of Putin, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the armed forces. This arrest signaled an intensified crackdown on dissent, highlighting internal political tensions but did not immediately affect Putin's hold on power.
Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Boris Nadezhdin was convicted of displaying extremist symbols, preventing him from running in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This legal action further demonstrated the Kremlin's suppression of opposition and reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued presidency through late 2026.
Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
Boris Nadezhdin, a critic of Putin and anti-war politician, was convicted on charges that will prevent him from campaigning in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This crackdown on dissent signaled tightening political control ahead of September elections, influencing perceptions of Putin's regime stability.
Kremlin propagandist arrested after criticizing Putin
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Former Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo, who publicly criticized Putin and was released from psychiatric detention, was arrested again, signaling tightening political repression. This event highlighted internal dissent and increased market concerns about Putin's grip on power.
Kremlin propagandist arrested after criticizing Putin
On July 17, 2026, Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo was detained after publicly criticizing Putin and calling for his resignation. This crackdown on dissent indicated internal instability and increased market doubts about Putin's hold on power.
Russian authorities detain Putin critics Ilya Remeslo and Boris Nadezhdin
July 31, 2026 dips to 0%2%
In a crackdown on dissent, Russian police detained former pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic Ilya Remeslo and anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin, signaling the Kremlin's intent to suppress opposition and maintain Putin's hold on power. This reduced market expectations for Putin's removal by July and August 2026.
Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo arrested after criticizing Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ilya Remeslo, a former Kremlin propagandist turned critic, was arrested for spreading 'fake news' about the war and calling for Putin's resignation. This crackdown on dissent highlighted internal political pressures and contributed to market speculation about Putin's stability.
Putin critics Ilya Remeslo and Boris Nadezhdin detained and convicted
On July 17, Russian authorities detained former pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic Ilya Remeslo and convicted anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin of extremist charges, barring him from parliamentary candidacy. These actions signaled intensified repression of dissent, reflecting internal political instability and impacting market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Former pro-Kremlin blogger Ilya Remeslo detained for spreading false information
The arrest of a former loyalist turned critic on charges of spreading fake news about the military highlighted Kremlin's intensified crackdown on dissent, reinforcing market confidence in Putin's control.
Putin’s trust and approval ratings hit new lows amid worsening fuel crisis
By mid-July, multiple polls showed Putin’s approval and trust ratings falling to their lowest levels since the war began, driven by the ongoing fuel shortages and public frustration. This decline reflected growing instability in Putin’s domestic support, influencing market perceptions of his presidency’s durability.
Anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Nadezhdin, a critic of Putin and the war in Ukraine, was convicted of extremist symbol display, preventing his participation in elections and signaling Kremlin crackdown on dissent ahead of September vote.
Russian authorities detain pro-Kremlin blogger turned Putin critic Ilya Remeslo
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
On July 17, 2026, Russian police detained Ilya Remeslo on charges of spreading false information about the Russian military. This crackdown on dissent signaled intensified repression ahead of the September elections, contributing to market perceptions of internal political instability but not immediate leadership change.
Anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary candidacy
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
On July 17, 2026, Boris Nadezhdin was convicted of displaying extremist symbols, preventing him from running in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This legal action against a prominent Putin critic underscored the Kremlin's efforts to suppress dissent, impacting market sentiment about political stability.
Anti-war Russian politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted, barred from parliamentary race
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 17, Boris Nadezhdin, a critic of Putin and the war, was convicted on charges that prevent him from running in the 2026 parliamentary elections, signaling Kremlin's crackdown on dissent and reinforcing political stability around Putin, which likely suppressed market odds for his exit.
Putin critic convicted on charges barring parliamentary candidacy
The conviction of an anti-war politician on extremist charges and detention of a former pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic signaled intensified repression of dissent, reflecting internal political instability and impacting market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Putin faces serious trouble as Russia loses energy war against Ukraine
Reports indicated that 60% of Russia's refining capacity was offline due to Ukrainian strikes, causing severe fuel shortages and economic strain. This situation posed a significant challenge to Putin's regime stability, increasing speculation about his political future but without immediate leadership change.
Ukrainian President Zelensky fires defense minister, impacting morale
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
On July 16, 2026, Ukrainian President Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, a popular figure credited with drone warfare breakthroughs. This move sparked public outrage and dealt a blow to Ukrainian morale, indirectly affecting perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Ukrainian President Zelensky fires popular defense minister amid ongoing war
The dismissal of a key defense minister credited with drone warfare breakthroughs dealt a blow to Ukrainian morale and highlighted the ongoing conflict pressures, indirectly affecting perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov dismissed by President Zelensky
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Ukrainian President Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Fedorov, a popular figure credited with drone warfare successes. This political shakeup in Ukraine amid ongoing conflict indirectly affected market perceptions of Putin's stability and the war's trajectory.
Zelensky fires popular defense minister, dampening hopes for Putin's fall
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
On July 16, 2026, Ukrainian President Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Fedorov, a key figure in drone warfare successes, which dealt a blow to Ukrainian morale and delayed momentum against Putin, influencing market sentiment downward.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy fires defense minister, impacting morale amid ongoing conflict
On July 16, 2026, Zelenskyy dismissed Ukraine’s defense minister, a move that sparked public outrage and affected Ukrainian morale, indirectly influencing perceptions of Putin’s hold on power as the conflict continued.
Ukraine escalates attacks on Russian infrastructure, increasing pressure on Putin
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian oil refineries and fuel infrastructure, exacerbating Russia's economic and political crises and undermining Putin's control and image of strength.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska amid health speculation and stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
During a July 15, 2026 summit in Alaska, Putin met with Trump to discuss Ukraine peace but no deal was reached. Observers noted Putin's limping and leg twitching, fueling health rumors. Despite increased scrutiny, Putin remained in power, and the market did not shift significantly on his removal probability.
Putin critic convicted on charges preventing parliamentary campaign participation
On July 15, 2026, Boris Nadezhdin, a critic of Putin who attempted to challenge him in the 2024 election, was convicted on charges that barred him from campaigning in the 2026 parliamentary elections. This event highlighted ongoing political repression and internal dissent but did not directly threaten Putin's presidency.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov steps down amid war pressures
Fedorov's resignation on July 15 signaled internal challenges in Ukraine's war effort, which indirectly affected perceptions of Putin's hold on power and contributed to market uncertainty about the conflict's impact on Russian leadership stability.
Retired Russian General publicly calls for Putin's resignation amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%11%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov demanded Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing war, a rare public dissent from a high-ranking military figure. This increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, causing a temporary rise in the probability of his removal by year-end.
Xi Jinping views Putin as junior partner amid growing China-Russia power imbalance
July 31, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Reports in mid-July 2026 indicated Xi Jinping now sees Putin as a junior partner, reflecting a power imbalance. This perception likely contributed to the market's low odds for Putin's removal by July 31, 2026, which dropped to near zero.
Trump and Putin meet in Alaska amid stalled Ukraine peace talks and health rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit ended without a ceasefire or peace deal, but Putin's warm reception on US soil was seen as a political victory reinforcing his stability. Observers noted Putin's limping and leg twitching, fueling health speculation but no official indication of removal, slightly lowering market removal probabilities.
Wall Street Journal reports China preparing for regime change in Russia
The report that China is preparing for a possible departure of Putin and building ties with potential future Russian leadership increased market speculation about Putin's political future, contributing to modest price fluctuations.
Fuel shortages in Russia reach breaking point, raising doubts about Putin’s leadership
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
By mid-July, fuel shortages had caused widespread public frustration and even physical altercations at gas stations, with foreign officials noting increasing doubts among Russian oligarchs about Putin’s ability to maintain control.
Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin briefly detained by police
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
The brief detention of opposition figure Boris Nadezhdin, known for opposing Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine, highlighted ongoing repression of dissent but did not signal any immediate threat to Putin’s presidency, maintaining low market odds for his removal.
Putin vows overwhelming response to Ukrainian attacks
Amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Putin promised a strong response, demonstrating his continued active leadership and control over military and political affairs, reducing near-term expectations of his removal.
Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin briefly detained by police
Boris Nadezhdin, a known opponent of Moscow’s military actions, was briefly detained, highlighting ongoing political repression. However, this event did not signal any immediate threat to Putin's presidency or cause significant market movement.
Retired Russian General publicly calls for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%11%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov demanded Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the Ukraine conflict, a rare public dissent from a high-ranking military figure that increased market speculation about Putin's political stability.
Putin’s approval and trust ratings continue to decline
June 30, 2027 dips to 17%2%
Polling data from July 10 showed Putin’s trust and approval ratings fell for a second consecutive week, indicating sustained domestic dissatisfaction amid ongoing challenges, which influenced further market price declines for Putin’s continued presidency.
Poll shows slight decline in Putin’s approval amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
A Russian state-owned poll published on July 10 indicated a small drop in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction linked to worsening fuel shortages. Despite this, no political moves toward resignation or removal were reported, maintaining market skepticism about his exit.
Putin holds firm stance rejecting compromise on Ukraine war during end-of-year Q&A
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Putin publicly rejected any compromise on the Ukraine conflict, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the war. This reinforced market skepticism about his imminent removal, contributing to stable or slightly declining probabilities for his exit by the end of 2026.
Russian State Poll Confirms Continued Decline in Putin's Approval Ratings
June 30, 2027 dips to 18%1%
A subsequent poll published on July 10 showed a further decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings. The acknowledgment of growing societal discontent by a state-owned polling center was linked to intensifying gasoline shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Putin’s approval ratings fall sharply amid ongoing war and crises
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Polling data showed Putin’s approval rating dropped to 66% with trust at 72.3%, reflecting public dissatisfaction amid the war and economic troubles, which increased market speculation about his political future and contributed to price declines.
Russian poll shows Putin's approval and trust ratings decline amid worsening gasoline shortages
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
State polling revealed a drop in Putin's approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction linked to economic hardships, which contributed to market price declines for Putin's continued presidency.
Retired Russian General Leonid Ivashov publicly calls for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%10%
Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, demanded Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the Ukraine conflict, a rare public dissent from a high-ranking military figure that increased market speculation and caused a price rise for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russian Border Service suspends passage through Kerch Strait and Azov-Don Canal
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
On July 10, 2026, Russia's Border Service stopped accepting applications for passage through the Kerch Strait and suspended traffic through the Azov-Don Canal. This move indicated heightened security and internal pressures, contributing to market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin's approval ratings continue to fall amid ongoing military and political pressures
Polling data released on July 10 showed a continued decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings in early July 2026, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid military setbacks and political challenges. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in his long-term presidency.
Putin's approval ratings fall for second consecutive week
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Polling data showed Vladimir Putin's trust and approval ratings declined for two weeks in a row, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and contributing to market skepticism about his political stability and tenure.
Pro-Kremlin blogger Ilya Remeslo detained and charged with spreading false information
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Ilya Remeslo, a former loyalist turned critic of Putin, was arrested and charged with disseminating fake news about the military, signaling intensified government crackdown on dissent. This event highlighted internal opposition but did not indicate any immediate change in Putin's presidency, contributing to a decline in market odds for his removal by June 30, 2027.
Putin's approval and trust ratings fall for second consecutive week
Polling data showed a continued decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings amid ongoing military and economic challenges. This decline reflected growing public dissatisfaction but did not translate into immediate political change within the market timeframe.
Ukrainian forces intensify strikes on Russian energy infrastructure causing outages
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure intensified around July 9-10, causing widespread power outages in occupied regions and increasing domestic pressure on Putin's government, which contributed to market speculation about his political stability.
Putin rejects peace talks despite intensified Ukraine strikes
On July 9, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's rejection of peace negotiations with Kyiv despite recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure. This stance indicated his commitment to remain in power and continue the conflict, keeping market exit odds low.
Putin publicly acknowledges worsening fuel crisis amid public anger
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Putin's rare public admission of the fuel crisis, caused by Ukrainian strikes and leading to long gas station lines, reflected growing domestic dissatisfaction and contributed to a decline in market confidence about his continued presidency.
Putin holds meeting on fuel crisis after Ukraine’s drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On July 8, 2026, Putin convened a government meeting to address the escalating fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, highlighting the severity of the crisis and its potential impact on his political standing.
Putin forced to acknowledge worsening fuel crisis amid public frustration
August 31, 2026 dips to 1%1%
By early July, fuel shortages in Russia deepened due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, leading to rationing and public frustration. Putin publicly admitted the crisis, marking a rare admission of weakness that increased domestic pressure but did not immediately threaten his presidency.
Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages amid growing public anger
Putin admitted a fuel crisis in Russia as long lines and shortages spread nationwide, marking a rare public admission of weakness and increasing pressure on his leadership.
Putin attends Kremlin meeting amid ongoing Ukraine war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 7, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as Russia faced military and political challenges. His continued active leadership and public presence maintained market confidence in his presidency, suppressing exit probabilities for all near-term dates.
Ukraine delivers final peace proposal warning of regime collapse if rejected
Ukraine presented a final peace proposal to the Kremlin, warning that rejection could lead to regime collapse. This heightened pressure on Putin's government amid military and economic challenges, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and exit probability.
Ukrainian drone strikes severely disrupt Russian oil refining capacity causing fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian drone attacks on key Russian oil refineries, including the Kapotnya refinery near Moscow, forced shutdowns and caused widespread fuel shortages and rationing across Russia. This crisis led to public frustration and a decline in Putin's approval ratings, increasing market speculation about his political future.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and NATO summit
On July 1, 2026, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as NATO met in Ankara, highlighting his continued exercise of presidential duties despite military and economic pressures. This reinforced perceptions of his political stability and limited market price increases for his exit.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as the war in Ukraine continued with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance. This demonstrated Putin's continued active leadership and control, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Ukrainian forces strike major Russian oil refineries, worsening fuel crisis
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
On July 6, Ukrainian forces struck key Russian oil refineries, including the Slavneft-Yanos refinery, causing significant damage and exacerbating Russia's fuel shortages. This deepening crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin but did not lead to immediate political change, reflected in continued low market odds for his exit.
Putin faces fuel shortages and declining popularity amid Ukraine strikes
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Putin acknowledged fuel shortages and convened emergency meetings. Polls showed a steep decline in his approval rating, reflecting growing domestic challenges and contributing to market doubts about his political stability.
Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages and energy crisis
Following Ukraine's June 18 drone strike on Moscow's largest refinery, Putin admitted on July 6 that the strikes were causing problems, highlighting economic strain but reaffirming his leadership, which tempered market expectations of his exit.
Russian missile and drone strikes hit Kyiv amid ongoing war tensions
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, killing civilians and escalating conflict. This military pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's ability to maintain control, influencing price movements.
Putin faces mounting economic and military pressures amid Ukraine conflict
Reports on July 6 highlighted Putin's precarious position due to economic decline, military stagnation, and declining public support, increasing market speculation about his political future but no immediate removal signs.
Putin faces mounting internal and external pressures amid Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 drops to 17%6%
Putin gave an interview addressing military and economic challenges, including fuel shortages and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure. These pressures intensified speculation about his political stability, contributing to further declines in market prices for his continued presidency.
Anonymous bettor places $400,000 wager Putin will be out by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
An anonymous user placed a large $400,000 bet on Polymarket predicting Putin would no longer be president by December 31, 2026. This significant wager influenced market prices, reflecting increased speculation about Putin's potential exit despite no official confirmation.
Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian oil refineries worsening fuel crisis
On July 6, Ukrainian forces struck major Russian oil refineries, including the Slavneft-Yanos refinery, causing significant damage and exacerbating Russia's fuel shortages. This deepening crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate political change, reflected in continued low market odds for his exit.
Anonymous $400,000 bet placed predicting Putin's removal by end of 2026
A large anonymous wager on Polymarket betting that Putin would cease to be president by December 31, 2026, highlighted market speculation about his potential ouster amid ongoing crises, though odds remained low.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump amid Ukraine conflict
On July 4, 2026, Vladimir Putin held a lengthy call with Donald Trump, discussing the Ukraine war and upcoming NATO summit. This call was part of Putin's efforts to project strength and maintain political control amid ongoing military and economic challenges, which helped stabilize market sentiment about his presidency.
Putin faces humiliating banking crisis amid war pressures
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
A report warned of an "explosive" risk of a banking crisis in Russia due to high bank lending and Western sanctions, highlighting economic vulnerabilities that undermined confidence in Putin's leadership and influenced market pricing downward.
Ukrainian drones strike Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest, deep inside Siberia
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On July 6, Ukrainian drones attacked the Omsk oil refinery, Russia’s largest, located about 2,500 km from Ukraine, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities. This attack exacerbated Russia’s fuel crisis and further eroded confidence in Putin’s ability to maintain control.
Putin visits frontline in military fatigues amid intensified Ukrainian strikes
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
On July 6, 2026, Putin made a rare public appearance at the frontline wearing military fatigues, signaling attempts to project strength despite internal challenges and ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, which affected market perceptions.
Putin admits Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure create problems
Putin publicly acknowledged the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, signaling vulnerability and contributing to market concerns about regime stability.
Putin faces critical decision amid fallout from Ukrainian attacks and internal pressures
Following sustained Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and growing domestic unrest, Putin was reported to be weighing options between escalating the war or pursuing peace. This situation highlighted his precarious political position, affecting market sentiment about his potential departure.
Putin faces critical decisions amid NATO meeting and ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
As NATO convened, Putin weighed options in Ukraine and beyond, with Russia facing military pressure and domestic unrest due to fuel shortages. This period saw increased speculation in prediction markets about his potential exit, though no official moves occurred.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy amid Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate phone calls with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, discussing the war and potential diplomatic resolutions. This diplomatic activity raised market speculation about possible shifts in Putin's position and the conflict's trajectory.
Putin faces humiliating new setback as Russian economy risks banking crisis
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
A report highlighted an 'explosive' risk of a banking crisis in Russia due to high bank lending and Western sanctions, exacerbating Putin's domestic challenges and weakening his position.
Retired General Ivashov publicly calls for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
On July 6, 2026, retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov demanded Vladimir Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This rare public dissent from a high-ranking military figure increased market speculation, causing a price rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska amid stalled Ukraine peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit between Putin and Trump ended without a ceasefire or peace agreement on Ukraine, with Putin maintaining his position on territorial demands. The lack of breakthrough reinforced perceptions of Putin’s continued control, slightly lowering market probabilities of his removal.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was noted but did not signal any change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market odds for his exit.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On July 5, Putin engaged in a lengthy call with former US President Donald Trump, who offered assistance to end the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's continued active role in international affairs, reinforcing market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Putin and Zelenskyy hold separate calls with former US President Trump
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Separate calls between Putin and Zelenskyy with Donald Trump underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complex geopolitical environment, maintaining market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin holds lengthy phone call with US President Trump discussing Ukraine crisis
June 30, 2027 rises to 18%2%
Putin's extended phone conversation with Trump on July 5 focused on attempts to end the Ukraine conflict, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no breakthrough, which maintained market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin holds 90-minute phone call with US President Trump discussing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
On July 5, 2026, Putin and US President Donald Trump held a lengthy phone conversation focusing on the Ukraine war and potential diplomatic resolutions. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a sign of ongoing efforts to manage the conflict without leadership change, contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin's exit by mid-2027.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy amid war tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, offering to help find a solution to the war, which briefly influenced market sentiment about potential political changes in Russia.
Putin holds lengthy call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 5, Putin and former US President Donald Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call focusing on the Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic solutions. This high-profile diplomatic engagement briefly influenced market sentiment but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin’s presidency.
Putin visits frontline military installation, vows to take more of Ukraine
On July 4, 2026, Putin made a rare frontline appearance, wearing military fatigues and claiming breakthroughs in Russia's war effort. This was intended to counter narratives of Ukrainian advantage and reinforce his leadership image, supporting market confidence in his presidency.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call amid Ukraine conflict and NATO summit
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
On July 4, 2026, Putin and Trump held a lengthy call discussing the Ukraine war and potential diplomatic resolutions. While this did not directly affect Putin's presidency, it reflected ongoing international diplomatic activity amid the conflict, maintaining market uncertainty.
Forbes reports on $400,000 bet predicting Putin's ouster by end of 2026
Media coverage of the large prediction market bet brought attention to the possibility of Putin's removal, potentially influencing public and market perceptions. However, no official developments occurred to confirm this outcome.
Anonymous bettor places $400,000 wager on Putin's removal by year-end
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
An anonymous account on Polymarket placed a large bet predicting Putin would no longer be president by the end of 2026, signaling increased market speculation and perceived risk of his exit despite constitutional protections and no official resignation.
Putin and former US President Trump hold 90-minute call discussing Ukraine war
The diplomatic engagement between Putin and Trump was noted as significant but did not indicate any immediate change in Putin’s presidency, thus having limited impact on market odds for his exit.
Putin exaggerates Russian military gains in staged meeting to bolster image
On July 3 and 4, Putin and Russian military commanders made exaggerated claims of territorial gains in Ukraine, attempting to create a narrative of success despite battlefield realities. This effort aimed to maintain domestic support but highlighted the disconnect between official statements and facts, influencing market perceptions of Putin's political strength.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call with US offer to help end Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 4, Vladimir Putin spoke with Donald Trump in a lengthy call where Trump offered to help find a solution to the Ukraine war. This event briefly influenced market sentiment about potential political changes in Russia but did not lead to immediate shifts in Putin's status.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering help to end the Ukraine war. This call occurred amid intensified military efforts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but did not signal any immediate change in Putin's presidency.
Putin makes staged frontline visit, claims military advances in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Putin’s July 4 visit to a military installation and his public claims of progress in Ukraine were aimed at bolstering his image as a strong leader despite battlefield setbacks. This helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call discussing Ukraine war
On July 3, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no indication of Putin's removal, affecting market sentiment.
Putin's approval rating sharply falls amid military setbacks
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
On July 3, polls showed Putin's approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9%, reflecting public dissatisfaction due to military failures and fuel shortages, contributing to minor market uncertainty about his political stability.
Putin appears frail amid growing health concerns
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
In early July 2026, Putin's public appearances showed signs of frailty, including slurred speech and physical difficulties, fueling speculation about his health and contributing to market speculation about his potential removal.
Putin’s approval rating plunges to lowest since Ukraine war began
A poll released on July 3 showed Putin’s approval rating dropped sharply to 66.9%, the steepest decline since the war started, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid fuel shortages and military setbacks. This decline contributed to market skepticism about Putin’s continued presidency.
Putin shrugs off fuel shortages as he ramps up attacks on Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Despite domestic fuel shortages and economic difficulties, Putin dismissed the crisis and intensified military actions in Ukraine, signaling no intention to step down or change leadership. This stance contributed to market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A poll showed Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% and trust by 3.4% to 73.3%, marking the steepest decline since 2022, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing market speculation about his future.
Retired General Leonid Ivashov renews public call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly criticized Putin's Ukraine war policy and called for his resignation, marking a rare and significant dissent from a high-ranking military figure. This event increased market speculation about Putin's political vulnerability, causing a temporary rise in the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin publicly acknowledges Russia's gasoline crisis amid Ukrainian strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin admitted to a fuel shortage crisis caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries, which led to rationing and public frustration, increasing political pressure and market speculation about his stability.
Anonymous bettor wagers nearly $500,000 Putin will be out by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous Polymarket trader placed a massive bet backing Putin's removal by December 31, 2026, signaling strong market interest and belief in a possible regime change despite low odds. This bet influenced market prices and drew media attention.
Putin dismisses fuel shortages amid intensified Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 3, Putin publicly downplayed fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, signaling his intent to continue the conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his political resilience, contributing to low market odds for his exit in the near term.
Putin holds meeting with generals at front line to project strength
On July 3, 2026, the Kremlin released footage of Putin meeting with military generals near the front line, wearing fatigues to suggest active command. This was a political move to reinforce his control amid ongoing military difficulties, stabilizing market sentiment about his presidency.
Anonymous bettor places nearly $500,000 wager on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
An anonymous user on Polymarket placed a large bet that Putin would no longer be president by December 31, 2026, reflecting increased market speculation about a possible regime change amid ongoing crises in Russia.
Putin’s approval rating drops sharply amid military setbacks and economic strain
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%4%
A poll published on July 3 showed Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% and trust by 3.4% to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, marking the steepest decline since 2022. This reflected growing public dissatisfaction amid the war and economic difficulties, contributing to increased market speculation about his political future.
State Poll Shows Steepest Decline in Putin's Trust and Approval Ratings Since 2022
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
A poll published by the state-owned VTsIOM showed Putin's approval rating falling by 3.5 percent and trust falling by 3.4 percent. This marked the steepest decline in his trust rating in over four years, reflecting growing societal discontent amid domestic fuel shortages.
Putin's approval rating sharply declines amid military setbacks
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Polls showed a significant drop in Putin's approval and trust ratings following military failures and worsening domestic conditions, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and political vulnerability.
Putin claims Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka amid ongoing war challenges
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Putin publicly claimed a military victory in Kostyantynivka despite evidence to the contrary, attempting to project strength amid declining approval ratings and fuel shortages. This effort aimed to maintain his image and political stability, dampening market expectations of his removal.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
A poll published on July 3 showed Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% and trust fell by 3.4% to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, reflecting increased public discontent and contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin remaining president.
Anonymous trader bets nearly $500K Putin will exit presidency by end of 2026
A large bet by an anonymous Polymarket trader on Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026, drew media attention and reflected significant speculative interest in a potential leadership change. Despite the bet, market prices remained low, indicating skepticism about the likelihood of Putin's early exit within the year.
Putin shrugs off severe fuel shortages amid escalating attacks on Russian oil refineries
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
Despite Ukraine's intensified strikes causing a fuel crisis and refinery damage, Putin dismissed the shortages as "not critical" and vowed to continue the war, signaling resilience and maintaining his grip on power, which tempered market expectations of his imminent removal.
Putin's approval rating sharply falls amid military setbacks and fuel shortages
A poll showed Putin's approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% amid worsening battlefield performance and fuel crises caused by Ukrainian strikes, increasing market doubts about his long-term hold on power.
Poll Shows Steepest Drop in Putin's Approval Rating Since Start of War
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
State pollster VTsIOM published results showing Putin's approval and trust ratings suffered their sharpest weekly decline since February 2022, reflecting public frustration over fuel shortages.
Putin approval rating drops sharply after Ukrainian drone campaign
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percent to 66.9 percent in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline, marking the steepest decline since at least February 2022, which significantly impacted market confidence in his leadership.
Putin holds military meeting amid worsening fuel shortages and war challenges
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On July 3, Putin staged a meeting with military commanders amid reports of fuel shortages and stalled advances in Ukraine. This public display of control and ongoing leadership helped reassure markets about his grip on power, contributing to a decline in removal probabilities for later dates.
Putin claims Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka despite contrary evidence
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Putin's public claim of military success in Kostyantynivka was contradicted by Ukrainian sources, highlighting the gap between official statements and reality, which contributed to declining approval ratings and market skepticism about his leadership.
Russia Launches Massive Retaliatory Missile and Drone Attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russia launched an exceptionally deadly 11-hour bombardment on Kyiv, killing at least 22 people, in what Moscow declared was direct retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities.
Cryptocurrency bettors increase wagers on Putin's exit amid Ukraine offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On July 2, 2026, cryptocurrency bettors increased wagers on Vladimir Putin ceasing to be president by the end of 2026, driven by intensified Ukrainian military offensives. This surge in betting volume reflected growing market interest and perceived risk to Putin's tenure.
Anonymous bettor places $400,000 wager on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
A large bet on Polymarket predicting Putin's exit by year-end indicated increased market attention and speculation about his political future, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
Ukrainian President Zelensky links Russian attacks to upcoming State Duma elections
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities are partly aimed at rallying support for the United Russia party ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This highlighted Putin's political strategy to consolidate power, reinforcing market expectations of his continued presidency through 2026.
Anonymous $400,000 bet placed on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
A large anonymous wager on Polymarket predicted Putin would cease to be president by December 31, 2026, reflecting growing market speculation and possibly insider knowledge about Putin's political future amid ongoing pressures.
Fuel crisis deepens in Russia amid Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
In early July 2026, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil refineries caused fuel shortages and long lines at gas stations, exacerbating public frustration and political pressure on Putin's regime, which influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Anonymous Polymarket user places $410,000 bet on Putin's ouster by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
An anonymous bettor placed a large wager on Polymarket predicting Vladimir Putin would no longer be president by December 31, 2026. This high-stakes bet drew market attention and speculation, causing increased trading volume and influencing price movements toward a higher probability of Putin's exit.
Fuel shortages worsen in Russia as officials ration supplies amid Ukrainian strikes
By early July 2026, fuel shortages in Russia deepened due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, leading to rationing and public frustration. This crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin's administration but did not translate into credible threats to his presidency within the market's timeframe.
Anonymous bettor wagers $400,000 on Putin's ouster by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
A large bet on Polymarket by an anonymous user predicting Putin's removal by December 31, 2026, drew attention to the market and reflected increased trader belief in a possible regime change within the year.
Anonymous Polymarket user places $400,000 bet on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous user on the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager predicting that Vladimir Putin would no longer be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. This high-stakes bet increased market attention and speculation about Putin's potential exit, influencing price movements in the market.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call ahead of NATO summit amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
Putin's call with Trump, where the US leader offered help to end the Ukraine war, underscored ongoing geopolitical tensions but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin's presidency, keeping market odds stable.
Large anonymous bet placed on Polymarket predicting Putin's exit by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A newcomer to the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager that Putin would no longer be President by the end of 2026, increasing market attention and speculation about his potential exit, influencing price movements.
Putin attends farewell ceremony for former defence minister Sergei Ivanov
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
Putin's public attendance at the ceremony demonstrated his continued exercise of presidential duties, reinforcing market confidence in his ongoing leadership through mid-2026.
Russia buys gasoline from India to tackle shortages amid fuel crisis
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Russia's purchase of gasoline from India underscored the severity of domestic fuel shortages caused by Ukraine's strikes, reflecting economic strain that contributed to market concerns about Putin's political future.
Putin attends farewell ceremony for former defence minister Sergei Ivanov
On July 1, Putin publicly attended the funeral of Sergei Ivanov, signaling his continued active role in state affairs. This appearance helped maintain market confidence in Putin's presidency continuing through 2026.
Anonymous bettor places $400,000 wager predicting Putin's ouster by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
An anonymous Polymarket user placed a large $400,000 bet that Putin will no longer be president by December 31, 2026, drawing media attention and increasing market focus on the possibility of Putin's removal.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid military and economic pressures
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid ongoing military and economic challenges. This event showed Putin's active leadership, reducing fears of immediate political instability and contributing to a decline in market prices for his exit by the end of 2026.
Large $400,000 bet placed on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
An anonymous bettor placed a $400,000 wager on Polymarket predicting Vladimir Putin would no longer be president by the end of 2026, signaling increased market interest and speculation about his potential removal despite no official announcements.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and domestic challenges
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid military and economic pressures. This reinforced perceptions of his ongoing control and reduced market speculation about imminent departure.
Putin chairs emergency Security Council meeting amid worsening war situation
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin chaired an emergency meeting at the weekend to address the deteriorating military situation, signaling potential instability in his leadership amid ongoing battlefield challenges.
Anonymous trader places $400,000 bet on Putin's removal by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
An anonymous Polymarket trader named 'ZnotluvuiSamez' placed a large bet predicting Putin would no longer be president by December 31, 2026. This high-profile wager attracted media attention and increased market focus on the possibility of Putin's removal, impacting market prices.
Newcomer places large bet on Putin's exit by end of 2026 on Polymarket
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A new account placed significant wagers on Polymarket predicting Putin would be out of power by the end of 2026, reflecting increased market interest and speculation. This contributed to a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Russian veteran Aleksandr Lunin jailed after viral video warning of army mutiny
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Aleksandr Lunin, a Russian military veteran, warned of potential mutiny within the Russian army and criticized Putin, reflecting internal dissent. His detention underscored growing elite dissatisfaction, which influenced market perceptions of Putin's political stability.
Large Polymarket Bets Placed on Vladimir Putin's Downfall by End of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
A newly created prediction market account placed massive wagers on Polymarket predicting Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026, driving up the implied probability of his exit.
Putin's approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks and fuel crisis
Polling showed Putin's approval rating dropped to 66.9% by late June 2026, reflecting growing domestic discontent amid military failures and a worsening fuel crisis, which contributed to market doubts about his political stability.
Ukrainian oligarch Vadim Yermolaev killed in Monaco terrorist attack
The assassination of Vadim Yermolaev, who had conflicts with Zelenskyy's team and was under sanctions, signaled heightened instability among elite networks influencing Russian power, contributing to increased market uncertainty about Putin's political future by year-end.
Ukrainian long-range strikes hit Dubna space communications center near Moscow
The strike on a key facility coordinating Russian occupation forces signaled Ukraine's increasing reach and put additional pressure on Putin's regime, contributing to bearish market sentiment about his presidency.
Russian government closes several railway border crossings with Baltic states and Finland
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 30, 2026, Russia temporarily closed multiple railway border crossings with Latvia, Finland, and Estonia, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and internal pressures that contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's future.
Forbes reports on $490K Polymarket bet predicting Putin's ouster by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Media coverage of a large prediction market bet brought attention to the possibility of Putin's removal, influencing public and market perceptions and causing a modest increase in the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
President Zelensky states Putin's new deadline to capture Donetsk region
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Zelensky announced Putin's 15th deadline to seize Donbas by December 31, 2026, aligning with the market's expiry date and increasing speculation about Putin's political future and potential exit by year-end.
President Zelensky states Putin set 15 deadlines for Donetsk capture
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced on June 29 that Putin had set multiple deadlines for capturing the Donetsk region, with the latest target being December 31, 2026. This military pressure aligned with the market's December 31 expiry and contributed to speculation about Putin's political future.
Russian veteran Alexander Lunin detained after warning of military mutiny
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Alexander Lunin, a former volunteer fighter, publicly warned of possible military mutiny if Putin did not meet with him to address soldier abuses. His detention underscored rare public dissent within military ranks, increasing speculation about Putin's political stability and causing a rise in market prices for his exit by year-end.
Putin acknowledges Ukrainian strikes causing fuel shortages in Russia
On June 29, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly admitted that Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure were creating problems, signaling a worsening fuel crisis that contributed to political instability and increased speculation about his presidency's longevity.
Putin rejects Ukrainian proposal to limit long-range missile strikes
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Putin rejected Kyiv's proposal to mutually limit long-range missile and drone strikes, signaling his intent to continue the war and maintain power. This hardened stance likely tempered market expectations of an imminent leadership change.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivers stern ultimatum to Putin in phone call
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Xi Jinping's direct pressure on Putin marked a shift from neutrality to demanding change, signaling a critical challenge to Putin's hold on power and influencing market speculation on his potential exit.
China delivers stern ultimatum to Putin, signaling pressure for change
On June 29, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly delivered a stern ultimatum to Putin during a phone call, marking a shift from neutrality to direct pressure on Moscow. This diplomatic move was perceived as a bearish signal for Putin's longevity and influenced market odds for his removal by year-end.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress, calls moment 'fateful'
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Putin's speech on June 29 ahead of the September 20 State Duma elections suggested instability within his power base, signaling potential vulnerability and contributing to market uncertainty about his future.
Putin sets up task force to address fuel shortages amid ongoing Ukrainian strikes
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Following his admission of fuel shortages, Putin announced the establishment of a task force to ensure sufficient fuel supplies across Russia, signaling the Kremlin's response to the crisis. This move reassured markets about his political stability, limiting further upward price movement for his exit probabilities.
Ukrainian President Zelensky states Putin set 15 deadlines for Donetsk capture
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Zelensky's statement about Putin's repeated military deadlines, including a new demand to seize Donbas by December 31, 2026, aligned with the market expiry date and increased speculation about Putin's political future.
Zelensky sets December 31, 2026 deadline for Donetsk capture, aligning with market expiry
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced on June 29, 2026, a new deadline for capturing the Donetsk region by December 31, 2026. This military timeline coincided with the prediction market's expiry date, influencing traders' perceptions of Putin's political survival and contributing to market price movements.
Serbian President announces resignation plan, influencing political betting markets
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's resignation announcement increased geopolitical uncertainty, leading to a slight rise in market odds that Putin would leave office by the end of 2026.
Putin attends Kremlin meeting amid high-stakes prediction market bets on his exit
On June 29, 2026, Vladimir Putin was publicly seen attending a Kremlin meeting, while an anonymous Polymarket trader placed a nearly $500,000 bet that Putin would no longer be president by the end of 2026. This juxtaposition highlighted market speculation despite Putin's continued public presence, causing some volatility in market prices.
Putin admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were creating problems, highlighting growing domestic challenges. This admission contributed to increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, slightly raising the probability of his removal by year-end.
Putin acknowledges impact of Ukrainian drone strikes amid military setbacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin publicly acknowledged the significant impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure and military challenges, signaling weakening control and increasing internal pressures. This contributed to a slight increase in market odds for Putin's exit by December 31, 2026.
Anonymous $400,000 bet placed on Putin's removal by end of 2026 on Polymarket
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous bettor placed a large wager predicting Putin would no longer be president by the end of 2026, increasing market attention and speculation about his potential exit.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Putin admitted Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have created fuel shortages, a serious political crisis undermining his domestic support and raising questions about his ability to maintain control.
President Zelenskyy states Putin's 15th deadline to capture Donetsk region by December 31, 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlighted Putin's repeated failed deadlines to capture Donetsk, with the latest set for December 31, 2026, directly aligning with the market's expiry date and signaling Putin's political survival tied to military success. This increased market attention on the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Ukrainian President Zelensky sets military deadline for Donetsk capture
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
On June 29, Zelensky stated that Putin had set 15 deadlines for capturing Donetsk since the war began, with the latest demand to seize Donbas by December 31, 2026. This military deadline aligned with the market expiry date, increasing uncertainty about Putin's hold on power.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia party ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Putin's speech at the United Russia party congress on June 29 aimed to project strength and popular support ahead of the September 2026 elections, reinforcing his political control and reducing market speculation about his imminent removal.
Putin warns of fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukraine's drone and missile strikes have severely impacted Russia's fuel production, creating a political crisis. This admission increased market concerns about Putin's grip on power, contributing to price volatility.
Ukrainian President Zelensky sets December 31, 2026 deadline for Donetsk capture
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Zelensky's public deadline for a military objective aligned with the market's December 31, 2026 resolution date, adding pressure on Putin and affecting market perceptions of his political survival.
Ukrainian President Zelensky highlights Putin's repeated failed deadlines for Donetsk capture
President Zelensky stated that Putin had set 15 deadlines for capturing the Donetsk region since the war began, with the latest demand to seize Donbas by December 31, 2026. This underscored ongoing military pressure and uncertainty about Putin's political future, influencing market speculation around the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Zelensky states Putin demands capture of Donbas by December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian President Zelensky's statement that Putin set a deadline for capturing Donbas intensified geopolitical tensions and contributed to market speculation about Putin's political survival.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Putin formally associated himself with the United Russia party, which campaigned explicitly as "the party of the president" for the first time since 2007. This move reinforced his political control and reduced market speculation about his imminent departure, stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin publicly supports ruling party ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
On June 29, 2026, Putin spoke at a party convention in Moscow, endorsing the electoral process as a test of strength for the political system. This reinforced expectations that the September 2026 State Duma elections would maintain the current power balance, reducing near-term chances of leadership change.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announces planned resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Serbian President Vucic's announcement of his planned resignation influenced political betting markets, slightly increasing the odds of Putin leaving office by the end of 2026 amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Russian soldier Alexander Lunin threatens military coup in viral video
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
On June 29, 2026, soldier and military blogger Alexander Lunin posted a video threatening a military coup against the Kremlin due to mistreatment of soldiers. His subsequent detention highlighted internal dissent and instability, negatively impacting market confidence in Putin’s continued presidency.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping pressures Putin in personal phone call
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivered a stern ultimatum to Putin, marking a shift from neutrality to direct pressure on Moscow. As China is Russia's primary economic lifeline, this increased pressure was seen as a bearish signal for Putin's longevity, influencing market expectations for his removal.
Putin acknowledges Ukrainian attacks causing fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin admitted that Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure were creating problems and fuel shortages, increasing domestic pressure and speculation about his political stability.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages after Ukrainian attacks
President Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages in Russia following intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. This admission highlighted growing internal pressures and contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's hold on power.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages amid Ukraine drone strikes on Russian infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%3%
Putin publicly admitted ongoing fuel supply problems caused by Ukrainian drone attacks, highlighting domestic challenges and increasing speculation about his regime's stability, which influenced market prices.
Putin calls moment 'fateful' ahead of State Duma elections
Putin's speech on June 29, 2026, ahead of September elections suggested instability within his power base, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure, particularly affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin calls moment 'fateful' at United Russia party congress ahead of elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%3%
Putin's language at the party congress suggested internal instability and potential challenges to his power, contributing to market speculation about his political future and increasing exit odds.
Putin and military commanders exaggerate territorial gains in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On June 29, Putin and Russian military officials made inflated claims of territorial advances in Ukraine, attempting to bolster domestic support despite battlefield setbacks, influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Putin admits Russia facing fuel shortages amid Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, signaling domestic challenges and weakening his position. This admission contributed to increased market speculation about his potential removal.
Putin rejects calls to negotiate peace amid fuel shortages
President Putin publicly rejected peace negotiations with Kyiv despite Ukraine's intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which caused fuel shortages and political strain. This hardened stance amid military and economic pressures influenced market perceptions of his tenure's stability.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress reaffirming leadership
Putin's June 28 speech at the United Russia party congress emphasized party loyalty and national unity amid global challenges, reinforcing his political dominance and stabilizing market confidence in his presidency.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress amid energy crisis
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
Putin publicly tied himself to the United Russia party ahead of the September elections, with the party campaigning as 'the party of the president.' This move reinforced his political control despite fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, signaling no immediate threat to his presidency.
Putin delivers defiant speech at United Russia party congress amid war and sanctions
Putin addressed the United Russia party congress on June 28, projecting strength and rejecting diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine war despite mounting pressures. His speech underscored the political challenges ahead, including the September Duma elections, affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin admits fuel shortages amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, signaling domestic challenges but downplaying their criticality, which contributed to market uncertainty about his political strength.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing war resolve ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Putin's June 28 speech at the United Russia Congress projected strength and military resolve, aiming to consolidate support ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which were expected to reinforce his power, thereby reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone strikes causing Russian fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries were creating fuel shortages and rationing in Russia, signaling domestic strain but reaffirming his commitment to continue the war effort. This admission highlighted growing internal challenges but did not indicate any imminent political change, causing some market uncertainty.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress, asserts Russian resilience
Vladimir Putin spoke at the United Russia party congress, claiming the West cannot win militarily and emphasizing Russia's resources to resist pressure. This was seen as an attempt to project strength amid deteriorating battlefield performance, slightly stabilizing market doubts about his presidency.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing military resolve amid declining battlefield performance
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
In a speech to the United Russia Party Congress, Putin projected strength and military resolve despite Russia's declining battlefield performance in Ukraine. The speech aimed to bolster domestic support but underscored ongoing challenges, contributing to cautious market sentiment about his tenure.
Putin's speech at United Russia Congress projects strength amid war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, Putin delivered a speech to the United Russia Party Congress emphasizing Russia's military resolve and framing victory in Ukraine as inevitable. He publicly tied himself to the party, reinforcing political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This reassured markets about his political stability, limiting upward price movement for his exit.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping issues stern ultimatum to Putin
On June 28, 2026, Xi Jinping pressured Putin during a phone call, marking a shift from neutrality to direct pressure by China, Russia's main economic partner. This increased market bearishness on Putin's political survival, especially for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin delivers speech at United Russia Congress ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Putin's speech at the United Russia Party Congress reinforced his political control and commitment to the war in Ukraine, signaling stability and reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Xi Jinping delivers stern ultimatum to Putin, shifting China-Russia dynamics
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Chinese leader Xi Jinping personally warned Putin, marking a shift from neutrality to direct pressure on Moscow, signaling increased geopolitical risk and contributing to bearish market sentiment on Putin's presidency.
Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, Putin admitted that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries caused significant fuel shortages and rationing across Russia, highlighting domestic strains from the ongoing conflict. This admission increased speculation about political instability, slightly raising market prices for Putin's potential early exit.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of elections
Putin's speech at the United Russia Party Congress reinforced his political dominance and commitment to the war in Ukraine, aiming to project strength and secure electoral support. This bolstered market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin publicly associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market speculation about his imminent departure and stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing. This admission highlighted the domestic strain of the ongoing war and increased public frustration, which slightly raised speculation about Putin's political stability, impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin addresses fuel shortages, downplays crisis in Moscow interview
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow oil infrastructure, Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages but described the situation as not critical and promised swift resolution. This reassured some market participants about his control over domestic issues, tempering expectations of his removal.
Putin Admits Ukraine Drone Strikes Are Creating Fuel Shortages and Problems in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In a rare public admission of wartime setbacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure have caused fuel shortages and queues at petrol stations.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fuel shortages, creating political crisis for Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes knocked out up to 28% of Russia's refining capacity, including Moscow's main refinery, leading to fuel shortages and a serious political crisis for Putin. This heightened doubts about his political stability and contributed to market price declines for his continued presidency.
Putin publicly acknowledges severe fuel shortages amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin admitted to fuel shortages in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries, which intensified public frustration and economic difficulties. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges but did not signal any political instability or leadership change, resulting in only minor market impact on the probability of Putin leaving office by year-end.
Putin acknowledges fuel crisis amid intensified Ukrainian strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following Ukrainian drone and missile strikes that disabled up to 28% of Russia's refining capacity, Putin publicly admitted to a 'certain shortage' of fuel, marking a rare admission of domestic crisis and weakening his standing.
Putin acknowledges fuel supply problems amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Putin publicly admitted that Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries were causing problems, though he denied the situation was critical. This acknowledgment reflected growing domestic challenges and contributed to a decline in his approval ratings, influencing market sentiment.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivers stern ultimatum to Putin
On June 28, 2026, Xi Jinping personally pressured Putin to change course, marking a shift from neutrality to direct economic and political pressure from China, Russia's main economic lifeline. This event heightened market fears about Putin's longevity in office.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin publicly admitted that Ukraine's deep-strike successes have caused significant fuel shortages in Russia, highlighting vulnerabilities in his administration amid ongoing conflict. This admission contributed to increased market speculation about his political stability and potential exit by year-end.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone attacks caused Russian fuel shortages
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing, intensifying public frustration and economic difficulties, which contributed to market price movement.
Putin admits fuel supply problems amid Ukraine strikes on Russian infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on oil depots, signaling growing domestic challenges and increasing speculation about his political stability.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivers stern ultimatum to Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Xi Jinping personally pressured Vladimir Putin during a phone call, marking a shift from neutrality to direct pressure by China, Russia's main economic partner. This increased market bearishness on Putin's political survival, especially for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin publicly admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin acknowledged for the first time that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing. This admission highlighted economic strain and increased public frustration, slightly raising speculation about Putin's political stability and impacting market prices for his continued presidency, especially for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages amid Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin publicly admitted to a 'certain deficit' in fuel supplies for the first time, acknowledging the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's energy sector. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges and contributed to increased market uncertainty about his presidency.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, including Moscow's main refinery, intensified fuel shortages in Russia, creating a political crisis that put additional pressure on Putin's government and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Putin admits Russia faces problems in Ukraine war amid escalating drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin publicly acknowledged setbacks in the war with Ukraine, including fuel supply problems caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil depots, which intensified market concerns about his grip on power.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages but downplays crisis amid Ukraine war
On June 28, 2026, Putin admitted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure were causing problems but insisted the fuel situation was not critical. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges but did not signal any political instability or threat to his presidency, leading to minor market adjustments.
Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Reportedly Delivers Ultimatum to Putin in Personal Call
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly pressured Vladimir Putin during a personal phone call, signaling a shift from neutrality to direct pressure. This development, combined with domestic political challenges, influenced traders' expectations regarding Putin's long-term political survival.
Serbian President Vučić announces imminent resignation, raising regional political uncertainty
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated he would resign within weeks, potentially triggering snap elections. This development increased market speculation about political instability in the region, nudging up the odds that Putin might be out by the end of 2026 due to broader geopolitical ripple effects.
Anonymous bettor wagers $400,000 Putin will be out by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A large anonymous bet on Polymarket significantly increased market activity and implied probability of Putin leaving office by the end of 2026, reflecting heightened investor speculation.
Ukraine's drone strikes cause fuel shortages and refinery fires in Russia
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Ukrainian drone attacks in late June 2026 severely damaged Russian oil refineries, causing fuel shortages and public unrest, which Putin acknowledged as problematic, increasing political pressure but not immediate threat to his presidency.
Russian gasoline reserves drawn down to uncomfortable levels amid Ukrainian strikes
June 30, 2027 plunges to 16%20%
Putin chaired an emergency meeting acknowledging critical gasoline shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries, signaling economic strain and weakening his domestic standing, which increased market speculation about his tenure.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announces planned resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%4%
On June 27, Serbian President Vucic announced his intention to resign soon, triggering increased geopolitical uncertainty and a modest rise in market odds that Putin would leave office by the end of 2026, reflecting broader regime risk sentiment.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivers stern ultimatum to Putin
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Xi Jinping shifted from neutrality to direct pressure on Putin during a personal call, signaling a major geopolitical shift and increasing market doubts about Putin's longevity in power.
Serbian President announces planned resignation, influencing Putin market odds
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced his intention to resign within weeks, triggering speculation about political instability in the region. This indirectly increased betting odds on Putin leaving office by the end of 2026, reflecting broader geopolitical uncertainty.
Former Russian serviceman Alexander Lunin arrested after threatening coup against Putin
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Lunin publicly demanded a meeting with Putin and threatened military mutiny, leading to his detention for displaying extremist symbols, highlighting internal dissent and potential instability within Russia's security apparatus.
Putin's approval rating sharply falls amid ongoing war and political pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Polls released in late June showed a significant decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing domestic dissatisfaction. This contributed to a temporary increase in market odds for his exit by December 31, 2026, as political fragility was perceived to rise.
Mysterious death of Sergei Ivanov, Putin ally and possible successor
The death of Sergei Ivanov on June 26, 2026, a long-time ally and potential successor to Putin, added to speculation about Putin's future and internal power dynamics, contributing to market uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Vladimir Putin ties himself to United Russia ahead of parliamentary elections
Putin formally associated with United Russia party, which campaigned under slogans emphasizing loyalty to him, signaling efforts to consolidate power ahead of September elections amid declining battlefield performance and political challenges.
Ukrainian President Zelensky sets deadline for Donetsk capture by year-end
On June 26, Zelensky stated Putin had set 15 deadlines for capturing Donetsk, with the latest by December 31, 2026. This military pressure aligned with the market's expiry date, influencing perceptions of Putin's ability to maintain power.
Putin ties himself to United Russia ahead of September elections amid fuel crisis
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin formally associated with United Russia party, which campaigned as "the party of the president," reinforcing his political control ahead of the 2026 State Duma elections. Concurrently, Ukraine's intensified strikes caused fuel shortages in Russia, creating political pressure but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency.
Russian pollsters report lowest trust in Putin since war began
Russian pollsters FOM and VTsIOM recorded declining approval for Vladimir Putin in spring 2026, with FOM’s late-June survey showing trust at 69%, the lowest since the full-scale invasion began. This decline in public support contributed to increased market speculation about Putin's political stability.
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes cause fuel shortages in Russia, creating political pressure on Putin
December 31, 2026 jumps to 17%8%
Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, knocking out up to 28% of refining capacity and causing fuel shortages in at least 17 regions. This created a political crisis for Putin, reflected in market uncertainty about his hold on power.
Putin faces declining approval amid intensified Ukraine conflict and economic challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Russian pollsters recorded declining approval for Vladimir Putin in spring 2026, with trust at its lowest since the full-scale invasion began. Ukraine's intensified strikes on Russian infrastructure created a political crisis for Putin, increasing speculation about his political stability and impacting market perceptions of his tenure.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announces planned resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 27, Serbian President Vucic announced plans to resign within weeks, triggering increased betting on Putin's departure by end of 2026 due to perceived regional political instability and its indirect impact on Russian leadership.
Ukrainian strikes cause fuel shortages in Russia, sparking crisis
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes knocked out up to 28% of Russia's refining capacity, leading to fuel shortages and rationing across Russia, which increased domestic pressure on Putin's administration and contributed to market speculation about his political stability.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 26, 2026, Putin formally associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move signaled continuity of leadership and reduced speculation about his imminent departure, contributing to stable or declining odds for his exit by year-end.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 26, 2026, Vladimir Putin spoke at the United Russia party convention, framing the upcoming parliamentary elections as a test of political strength, signaling internal pressures and potential instability within his power base. This event contributed to market uncertainty about his continued presidency.
Putin's approval rating dips amid military setbacks and fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In late June 2026, Russian polls showed a decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings, influenced by military challenges in Ukraine and domestic fuel shortages. This contributed to a temporary increase in market speculation about his potential exit by the end of 2026, reflected in a price rise for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Death of Sergei Ivanov, longtime Putin ally and possible successor
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
The mysterious death of Sergei Ivanov on June 26 removed a key figure with influence and potential to challenge or succeed Putin, increasing speculation about Putin's political future and contributing to market volatility.
Putin’s approval rating begins sharp decline after Ukraine’s major strike
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Following Ukraine’s largest strike on Moscow Oblast, Putin’s approval rating fell from 74% to 69% between June 12 and June 21, signaling growing domestic dissatisfaction and impacting market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
France Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker 'Deliver' in Mediterranean
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The French Navy intercepted and boarded the shadow fleet tanker 'Deliver' near Sicily, escalating European enforcement of sanctions on Russian energy exports and squeezing Moscow's war funding.
Russian soldier Alexander Lunin threatens military coup in viral Instagram video
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
A prominent soldier publicly threatened a military coup against Putin, highlighting growing dissent within the armed forces and increasing perceived risks to Putin's presidency, which pressured the market.
Russian veteran Aleksandr Lunin threatens military mutiny unless allowed to meet Putin live
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Lunin's viral video warning of a potential military mutiny and demand for a live meeting with Putin highlighted internal dissent and military dissatisfaction, increasing market speculation about regime instability.
Putin appears unable to cry at WWII memorial, sparking health rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
At a solemn ceremony marking the 85th anniversary of WWII's start, Putin's unusual demeanor and inability to cry led to renewed rumors about his declining health, contributing to market doubts about his political future.
South Ossetia’s president resigns and joins Putin’s presidential staff
On June 23, the president of South Ossetia resigned and joined Putin's presidential staff, raising questions about Russian internal political dynamics and potential shifts in Putin's power base, which influenced market perceptions of his presidency's stability.
Russian Deputy PM announces fuel export bans amid crisis
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 23, 2026, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced bans on gasoline and jet fuel exports and considered diesel export bans due to domestic shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian strikes, signaling economic strain impacting Putin's regime stability.
Putin appears unable to cry at WWII memorial, fueling health rumors
Putin's unusual emotional display at a solemn ceremony led to further speculation about his health, reinforcing market doubts about his stability and longevity in office.
Vladimir Putin approves government instructions amid gasoline crisis
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin approved a list of instructions following a government meeting addressing fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, signaling domestic challenges but maintaining control. This contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability.
Putin shows unusual emotional detachment at WWII memorial event
Putin appeared unable to cry during a solemn ceremony, fueling speculation about his health and emotional state, which contributed to market doubts about his longevity in office.
Putin's 'drooping face' at memorial sparks renewed health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
At a somber ceremony marking the 85th anniversary of WWII's start, Putin appeared unable to cry and showed an unusually rigid expression, fueling renewed speculation about his health and physical condition, which contributed to ongoing market uncertainty about his presidency.
Putin appears emotionally distant at WWII memorial, sparking health rumors
Putin's inability to cry at a somber memorial event and his older appearance intensified rumors about his declining health, contributing to market speculation about his political future.
Russia considers diesel export ban amid worsening fuel crisis from Ukrainian strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced consideration of a total diesel export ban due to severe fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, increasing domestic instability and pressure on Putin's administration.
Putin's expression at memorial sparks renewed health speculation
At Russia's Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony, Putin's unusually rigid and expressionless face reignited global speculation about his health, fueling doubts about his physical condition and political stability, which influenced market sentiment.
Putin's rigid facial expression at Day of Memory ceremony fuels health rumors
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Putin's unusually stiff and limited facial movements during the Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony reignited global speculation about his declining health, intensifying doubts about his political future.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine
The lengthy phone conversation between Putin and US President Trump may have signaled diplomatic shifts, contributing to market speculation about Putin's political future amid ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Putin appears frail at Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony, sparking health concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin's visibly frail appearance and limited facial expressions during a major public event fueled speculation about his health, contributing to market uncertainty about his ability to remain in office.
Putin's rigid facial expression at Day of Memory ceremony fuels health speculation
Putin's unusually rigid facial expression during the Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony reignited global speculation about his health, contributing to market doubts about his political longevity.
Putin's frail appearance sparks health concerns amid psychological blow theory
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared increasingly frail in public appearances, fueling speculation about his health and causing some market participants to reassess the likelihood of his continued presidency through 2026. This contributed to a drop in market prices for his continued tenure by late 2026.
Putin appears frail at ASEAN Summit amid health speculation
Putin's noticeably frail appearance during the ASEAN Summit sparked widespread health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office, contributing to early market uncertainty about his political future.
Putin reportedly suffered a stroke, fueling health rumors
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Following the frail appearances, reports emerged on June 19 suggesting Putin may have suffered a stroke, intensifying concerns about his health and potential incapacity. This speculation contributed to a brief rise in market odds for his removal, reflecting increased uncertainty about his presidency's continuity.
Putin's frail appearance raises health concerns and speculation about presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Multiple news outlets reported Putin appeared frail with slurred speech and physical difficulties during public events, sparking health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue as president. This caused a temporary increase in market odds for his removal by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian drone strikes severely damage Moscow oil refinery, causing fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On June 18, Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neft Moscow refinery, one of Russia's largest, causing fires and significant damage that led to fuel rationing in Moscow. This attack intensified the domestic fuel crisis, undermining Putin's standing and contributing to market doubts about his stability in office.
Putin's health concerns rise after frail public appearances
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
In mid-June, Putin appeared frail with signs such as slurred speech and swollen hands, sparking widespread speculation about his health and fueling market fears about his ability to continue as president.
Putin appears frail with slurred speech at ASEAN summit, sparking health concerns
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
On June 18, multiple outlets reported Vladimir Putin's frail appearance and slurred speech during public events, raising speculation about his health and ability to continue as president. This caused a temporary increase in market odds for his removal by the end of 2026.
Putin's frail appearance sparks global health concerns
Putin appeared increasingly frail during public appearances, including slurred speech and swollen hands, fueling speculation about his health and raising doubts about his ability to continue as president. This contributed to a rise in market uncertainty about his tenure.
Putin's frail appearance and health concerns spark speculation about his presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Multiple reports emerged showing Putin appearing frail with slurred speech and physical difficulties during public events, raising market speculation about his ability to remain president through 2026. This led to a temporary increase in the odds of his removal by the end of the year.
Putin's health concerns rise after frail public appearances
In mid-June 2026, Putin appeared frail with signs such as slurred speech and swollen hands, raising health concerns. This fueled speculation about his ability to continue in office, impacting market perceptions of his longevity.
Speculation rises over Putin's health after frail public appearances
Putin appeared increasingly frail during public appearances, including slurred speech and physical symptoms, sparking widespread speculation about his health and ability to continue in office. This fueled some market reassessment of his political future but did not lead to immediate price spikes for his exit.
Ukrainian drone strikes hit Moscow oil refinery, causing fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 18, Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale drone attack on the Gazprom Neft oil refinery near Moscow, severely damaging Russian energy infrastructure and contributing to fuel shortages across Russia. This event increased market speculation about Putin's weakening grip on power due to economic strain.
Suspect in killing of Putin critic arrested in Poland
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
The arrest of a suspect in Poland for the killing of a Russian artist critical of Putin heightened concerns about political stability and dissent within Russia, briefly increasing speculation about Putin's political future and impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin appears frail at ASEAN Summit amid health concerns
Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly frail appearance at the ASEAN Summit sparked health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office, causing some market uncertainty about his tenure.
Russian central bank chief's absence sparks succession speculation
Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian central bank chief, was absent from several high-profile events, stirring rumors about potential leadership changes. However, this did not translate into any immediate impact on Putin's presidency or market prices for his removal by year-end.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Moscow oil refinery causing fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Ukraine launched a drone attack on Moscow's largest oil refinery, leading to significant fuel shortages and long queues at petrol stations across Russia. This event heightened public frustration and put pressure on Putin's government, impacting market perceptions of his stability.
Putin hosts ASEAN summit, projecting political stability amid challenges
On June 18, Putin made public statements following the Russia-ASEAN Summit, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic and economic cooperation, which helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Reports emerge of Vladimir Putin's frail health and slurred speech at ASEAN summit
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Multiple news outlets reported on June 18 that Putin appeared frail with slurred speech and physical difficulties during public events, raising health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue as president. This caused a temporary increase in market odds for his removal by the end of 2026.
Reports highlight Vladimir Putin's frail appearance and health concerns
Multiple reports on June 18 noted Putin's frail appearance and slurred speech during public events, sparking health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office. This contributed to some market uncertainty about his tenure but did not cause a significant price move.
Putin's health concerns rise after frail appearances and speech issues
Reports emerged highlighting Putin's frail appearance, slurred speech, and swollen hands, raising fears about his health and sparking speculation about his ability to continue as president. This news contributed to increased market uncertainty about his tenure.
FSB detains Putin’s close associate and reputed crime boss Ilya Traber in St. Petersburg
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
The detention of Ilya Traber, a powerful businessman and longtime Putin associate, signaled internal elite tensions and potential instability within Putin's inner circle, impacting market perceptions of Putin's grip on power.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit for peace talks
Zelenskiy publicly proposed talks with Putin at the G7 summit or in the US to end the ongoing war, signaling potential diplomatic engagement but no immediate impact on Putin's presidency. This offer did not lead to any resignation or removal, so market impact was limited.
Putin signs decree scheduling September 20 legislative elections
On June 16, 2026, Putin signed a decree setting the date for the 2026 Russian legislative elections, signaling continuity in the political calendar and reinforcing expectations of his continued presidency through the election period.
Ukrainian President Zelensky offers to meet Putin at G7 summit for peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Zelensky's offer to meet Putin at the G7 summit or in the US aimed to initiate peace talks to end the war, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid the conflict. This maintained market focus on Putin's political stability but did not significantly alter removal odds.
Putin addresses St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, emphasizing Russia's global role
Putin's speech at SPIEF-2026 reinforced his position as Russia's leader and projected continuity, which tempered market fears of an imminent departure, stabilizing prices early in the analysis window.
Putin remains in power despite chilling winds at home
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Analysis showed that although Putin is increasingly isolated and surrounded by fearful underlings, he remains firmly in power with no immediate threat of removal, tempering market expectations of his exit.
Russia issues final ultimatum with intensified missile strikes on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin escalated military actions with increased missile strikes on Kyiv, signaling his determination to continue the war despite setbacks and internal criticism, reinforcing his hold on power and limiting market expectations of his removal.
Mood in Russia turns against Putin amid fears of assassination and coup
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Reports emerged of Putin hiding in a bunker and fears of assassination or coup, with increased elite arrests and public discontent, intensifying speculation about his future but no official change occurred.
Putin pays state visit to China amid strategic partnership anniversary
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin's state visit to China reaffirmed the Russia-China strategic partnership, showing continued international engagement and no signs of political transition in Russia.
Putin visits China for strategic talks with Xi Jinping
Putin's state visit to China and talks with Xi Jinping underscored his continued international influence and political control, countering narratives of imminent removal and supporting market confidence in his presidency.
Western media report Putin's weakening grip and elite plans for removal
Western outlets reported significant weakening of Putin's position and alleged plans within the ruling elite for his removal, reflecting growing internal tensions and economic challenges, though no official action was taken.
Western media reports Putin’s weakening grip and elite plans for removal
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Western outlets reported that Putin’s position was weakening amid economic challenges and war costs, with alleged plans within the ruling elite for his removal. This news contributed to market uncertainty but lacked official confirmation, keeping probabilities low.
Former top Russian official says country is 'over Putin' and imagines future without him
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
A former senior Kremlin official publicly acknowledged growing elite disillusionment with Putin and the possibility of a future Russia without him. This signaled increasing internal cracks but did not indicate an immediate removal, reflecting cautious market sentiment lowering the probability of Putin's exit by end 2026.
Former top Russian official admits country is over Putin and imagines future without him
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
A former senior Kremlin official anonymously acknowledged on May 16, 2026, that many elites and citizens have lost faith in Putin's leadership, reflecting deepening disillusionment but no immediate removal.
Former Kremlin official acknowledges Russia's disconnection from Putin
A former senior Kremlin official stated that many in government and business have mentally distanced themselves from Putin, who has withdrawn from public life, signaling elite discontent but no immediate threat to his presidency.
Putin claims economic measures show positive results amid budget deficit concerns
Putin asserted economic improvements despite reports of a large budget deficit and increased military spending, reflecting ongoing internal pressures but no sign of leadership change, contributing to market stability.
Former MI6 spy claims Putin to be removed within months due to health
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
A former British intelligence officer publicly claimed in mid-May 2026 that Putin would be removed from office within months due to health issues, including speculation about Parkinson's and cancer. This fueled market uncertainty and contributed to price fluctuations around this time.
Kremlin elites have no way to remove Putin despite growing discontent
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
On May 14, 2026, analysis confirmed that despite elite dissatisfaction and economic pressures, the Kremlin's power structure prevented any effective mechanism to remove Putin, reinforcing market confidence in his continued presidency.
Kremlin elites lack means to remove Putin despite rising risks
Reports indicated that while Putin's ratings had slightly fallen and political risks were increasing, the Kremlin elites had no effective way to remove him, consolidating support around Putin despite economic and social pressures.
Putin suggests Russia’s war on Ukraine ‘coming to an end’ but remains firm
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Putin indicated a possible nearing end to the war and willingness to meet Zelenskyy, which briefly raised hopes of political change but he maintained his war aims, leading to mixed market reactions.
Putin speaks at Victory Day parade expressing confidence in Ukraine conflict victory
Putin delivered a speech at the May 9 military parade in Moscow expressing confidence in victory in Ukraine, signaling no intention to resign or step down despite ongoing conflict challenges.
Putin says Ukraine conflict 'coming to an end' at scaled-back Victory Day parade
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Putin publicly suggested the Ukraine war was nearing its end on May 9, 2026, signaling possible shifts in his strategy but not indicating any intention to resign, which maintained market skepticism about his removal.
Putin declares Russia will always be victorious at scaled-back Victory Day parade
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Putin's public appearance and speech at the Victory Day parade reinforced his control and commitment to the war effort, countering rumors of his weakening grip and stabilizing market sentiment.
Putin attends scaled-back Victory Day parade amid drone attack fears
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Putin's public appearance at the May 9 Victory Day parade, which was scaled back due to fears of Ukrainian drone attacks, was a carefully managed display to counter rumors of his retreat or incapacity. This event reinforced his continued grip on power despite internal and external pressures, tempering market expectations of his imminent removal.
Kremlin infighting intensifies as Putin faces calls for resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Longtime Kremlin lawyer Ilya Remeslo publicly called for Putin's resignation, signaling elite dissent. This event highlighted growing internal challenges but did not lead to immediate changes in Putin's status, causing a minor market reaction.
Longtime Kremlin lawyer publicly calls for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Ilya Remeslo, a Kremlin-linked attack lawyer, publicly labeled Vladimir Putin a "war criminal and a thief" and demanded his resignation, signaling rare open dissent within elite circles. This event highlighted growing internal opposition but did not immediately affect Putin's hold on power, causing a minor market reaction.
Reports emerge of weakening Putin grip and elite plans for removal
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Western media reported that Vladimir Putin's position within Russia's ruling elite had weakened significantly, with alleged plans for his removal forming. Economic contraction and increased war costs contributed to elite dissatisfaction, influencing market sentiment downward.
Kremlin factions battle to sway Putin amid economic and war pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
On May 6, 2026, reports emerged of Kremlin infighting and public criticism of Putin, including a Kremlin lawyer demanding his resignation. This highlighted rising elite discontent and increased market uncertainty, briefly pushing prices up.
Kremlin infighting intensifies amid economic downturn and rising discontent
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
Reports emerged of significant internal power struggles within the Kremlin as Russia's economy contracted and public dissatisfaction grew. This heightened speculation about Putin's political stability but did not lead to any immediate change in his presidency, causing minor market fluctuations.
Kremlin infighting intensifies amid calls for Putin's resignation
Ilya Remeslo, a Kremlin attack lawyer, publicly called for Putin's resignation and labeled him a war criminal, leading to his forced removal by authorities. This event highlighted growing elite dissent but did not immediately affect Putin's position, causing a temporary market reaction.
Reports emerge of Putin losing grip amid elite tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
In early May 2026, Western media reported significant weakening of Putin's position within Russia's ruling elite, with alleged plans for his removal. Economic contraction and increased war costs fueled elite dissatisfaction, causing a slight market dip in the likelihood of Putin remaining president.
Kremlin attack lawyer Ilya Remeslo demands Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
Ilya Remeslo publicly called Vladimir Putin a war criminal and thief, demanding his resignation, shocking Moscow and signaling internal dissent. This event contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Russians turn to cash amid internet blackouts
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Frequent mobile internet outages, attributed to security measures against Ukrainian drone attacks, led to a surge in cash usage in Russia. This highlighted growing domestic instability and economic disruption, contributing to market uncertainty about Putin's political stability but not directly signaling his removal.
Kremlin tightens security around Putin amid assassinations and coup fears
European intelligence reported increased personal security measures for Putin due to a wave of assassinations of senior military figures and fears of a coup, indicating internal instability concerns but no removal.
Putin replaces Dagestan leader amid political reshuffle
On May 4, Putin dismissed the head of Dagestan and appointed a new acting leader, signaling internal political adjustments but no indication of Putin stepping down. This event reflected ongoing regime management rather than a threat to Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on the market's outlook for his removal by end 2026.
Kremlin-linked lawyer publicly demands Putin’s resignation
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
Ilya Remeslo, a Kremlin attack lawyer, publicly called for Putin’s resignation and labeled him a war criminal, leading to his forced removal by authorities. This rare public dissent signaled elite fractures but did not immediately affect Putin’s presidency.
Putin's approval rating falls to lowest since Ukraine war began
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
State pollster VTsIOM reported Putin's approval rating declined to 65.6%, the lowest since the 2022 invasion, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid economic strain and war fatigue, but no leadership change.
Putin Announces 32-Hour Orthodox Easter Ceasefire with Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a temporary ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, which Ukraine agreed to observe, temporarily easing frontline hostilities.
Kremlin loyalist who criticized Putin ends up in psychiatric clinic
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
Following his public denunciation of Putin and call for resignation, Ilya Remeszlo was reportedly placed in a psychiatric clinic, indicating Kremlin efforts to suppress dissent and maintain regime stability, which likely contributed to a market price decline reflecting reduced immediate risk to Putin's presidency.
Kremlin loyalist publicly calls for Putin's resignation and trial
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
Ilya Remeslo, a longtime Kremlin attack lawyer, publicly denounced Vladimir Putin as a war criminal and thief, demanding his resignation. This rare public dissent from a Kremlin insider highlighted cracks in Putin's support, causing a slight market reaction.
Putin Demands Oligarchs Donate to Russia's Dwindling Defense Budget
Putin met with Russia's business elites to demand financial contributions for the war effort, signaling both fiscal strain and his absolute authority over the country's oligarchs.
Former Kremlin propagandist publicly calls for Putin's resignation and predicts overthrow in 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
Ilya Remeszlo, once a staunch Kremlin supporter, declared Putin illegitimate and called for his resignation, labeling him a war criminal and thief. This unprecedented internal criticism suggested cracks within the Russian elite and fueled market speculation about Putin's potential removal by the end of 2026.
Kremlin insider publicly calls for Putin's resignation and prosecution
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
Ilya Remeszlo, a former staunch Kremlin supporter, declared Vladimir Putin illegitimate and called for his resignation and prosecution as a war criminal, highlighting internal elite fractures and suggesting a possible collapse of Putin's regime within 2026. This statement caused a brief market price increase reflecting heightened perceived risk to Putin's presidency.
Putin holds government meeting on Crimea via video link
On March 18, 2026, Vladimir Putin conducted a government meeting on Crimea remotely, highlighting his continued exercise of presidential duties despite increasing difficulty in public appearances. This reinforced market confidence in his ongoing presidency, contributing to stable prices around this date.
Putin holds government meeting remotely from Kremlin office amid growing speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Putin was shown conducting a government meeting via video link from the Kremlin, highlighting his continued control but also feeding rumors about his health and security, which contributed to market uncertainty and a temporary price increase.
Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo publicly calls for Putin's resignation and trial
Ilya Remeslo, a former Kremlin propagandist, published a manifesto denouncing Putin as an illegitimate president and calling for his resignation and prosecution as a war criminal. This rare public dissent highlighted cracks in Putin's support but did not lead to any immediate political change or removal.
Former Loyalist Lawyer Ilya Remeslo Publishes Manifesto Calling for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
St. Petersburg lawyer Ilya Remeslo publicly turned on Putin, calling him an illegitimate president over the dead-end war in Ukraine, before being placed in a psychiatric ward within 48 hours.
Putin discusses critical infrastructure protection amid intensified Ukrainian attacks
Following intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian military and infrastructure targets, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting to address protection measures, signaling ongoing conflict pressures but no indication of leadership change.
Putin Warns Russia May Halt Gas Supplies to Europe Amid Middle East Energy Spike
President Vladimir Putin suggested Russia could preemptively stop gas exports to Europe to capitalize on rising energy prices and secure new markets, demonstrating his leverage and political stability.
Op-ed calls for calling Putin’s bluff amid war and economic strain
An influential op-ed highlighted Russia’s military and economic difficulties and urged increased pressure on Putin, reflecting growing but contained challenges to his rule without immediate threat to his presidency.
Analysis highlights Putin's precarious position amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
A Washington Post opinion piece described Putin as facing a grim future due to the Ukraine war, reflecting growing international skepticism about his hold on power but without concrete indications of imminent removal.
Putin maintains firm stance amid ongoing war and no resignation signs
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Throughout early 2026, Putin continued to project strength and resolve regarding the Ukraine conflict, with no credible reports of resignation or removal. This sustained the market's low probability for his exit by the end of 2026.
Russian general shot and wounded in Moscow, investigation ongoing
An attack on a high-ranking military official in Moscow raised concerns about internal security and stability within Russia’s leadership. Kremlin spokesman confirmed investigation and reporting to Putin, but no direct indication of threat to Putin’s presidency emerged.
Analysis discusses potential successors to Putin as Russian leader
On February 5, 2026, analysis emerged about who might succeed Vladimir Putin, reflecting growing speculation about the future leadership but no concrete developments. This discussion had limited immediate impact on market prices but indicated ongoing interest in Putin’s eventual departure.
Speculation Grows Over Putin's Health After 10-Day Public Absence
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Putin's 10-day disappearance from public view sparked rumors about his health and potential removal, briefly increasing uncertainty in the market, but no official confirmation or resignation occurred, limiting impact on the market's resolution.
Discussion on Putin's Succession and Kremlin's Future Intensifies
Analysts and foreign policy experts debated potential successors and the shape of Russia's leadership post-Putin, reflecting ongoing uncertainty but no immediate change in Putin's presidency, which kept market prices low for his removal.
Experts analyze potential successors to Putin
Analysts discussed possible scenarios for Putin’s eventual departure and the shape of Russia’s next leader, reflecting ongoing speculation but no immediate change, which kept market prices stable and low for Putin leaving presidency within the timeframe.
Putin disappears from public view for over a week, sparking health rumors
Putin's absence from public appearances for more than a week led to widespread speculation about his health and potential political instability, causing minor market uncertainty but no official change in his presidency.
Experts analyze potential successors and post-Putin scenarios
On February 5, 2026, analysts discussed possible successors to Vladimir Putin and the implications for Russia’s future, reflecting ongoing speculation but no immediate change in leadership, which kept market probabilities low.
Kremlin escalates crackdown on dissent amid war and economic pressures
The intensified repression of critics and political prisoners in early 2026 indicated Putin's regime was focused on maintaining control rather than stepping down, reducing market expectations of his exit.
Putin chairs Kremlin meeting amid ongoing war and domestic pressures
On February 2, 2026, Putin was publicly active, chairing meetings on industrial development, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential duties and no signs of incapacitation or removal, supporting market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Analysis highlights mounting pressures on Putin’s regime amid Ukraine war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A February 2, 2026 report detailed Russia’s military setbacks and internal challenges but concluded the Putin regime was far from collapse. This tempered market expectations for a near-term leadership change, keeping probabilities for Putin’s departure low.
Putin Faces Mounting Military and Economic Challenges Amid Ukraine War
By early February 2026, reports indicated Russia's military was suffering heavy losses and failing to make significant gains in Ukraine, while economic pressures persisted. These challenges increased speculation about Putin's political future but did not produce immediate changes, keeping market probabilities low.
EU imposes new sanctions targeting Putin and Russian media figures
The European Union adopted a new package of sanctions including measures against Vladimir Putin and prominent Russian TV personalities, increasing international pressure but not directly threatening Putin's presidency.
Putin meets US envoys to discuss peace and frozen assets
Putin met with US envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to discuss peace efforts and the potential use of frozen Russian assets, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement without any indication of resignation or removal. Market price remained stable at 11%.
Putin endorses hardline pro-war candidates for 2026 State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Putin supported hardline pro-war figures for upcoming elections, signaling continued commitment to his agenda and no sign of stepping down. This political consolidation coincided with a market price peak at 13%.
U.S. President Trump invites Putin to join new "Board of Peace"
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
On January 19, 2026, the Kremlin announced that U.S. President Donald Trump invited Vladimir Putin to join an international "Board of Peace" to oversee Gaza's reconstruction and other crises. This diplomatic gesture was noted but did not affect Putin's presidency status.
Putin’s credibility questioned amid ongoing Ukraine war and mounting challenges
By mid-January 2026, analysts noted growing challenges for Putin on the battlefield and at home, with no breakthroughs in Ukraine and increasing pressure, but no indication of his removal or resignation, maintaining market skepticism about a leadership change.
Putin's credibility crumbles amid ongoing Ukraine war and diplomatic isolation
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Analysts reported that Putin's credibility was eroding domestically and internationally due to the prolonged war and lack of progress in peace talks, increasing uncertainty about his long-term hold on power. However, no direct indication of imminent removal was observed, keeping market prices low.
Putin states Russia ready to restore relations with Europe amid ongoing war
Putin expressed willingness to restore diplomatic relations with Europe to pre-war levels, indicating a potential shift in foreign policy but no indication of stepping down. This statement maintained market stability around 11%.
Kremlin claims Ukraine’s situation deteriorating, Putin’s war aims unchanged
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Ukraine’s decision-making corridor is narrowing, reinforcing Putin’s resolve to continue the war and maintain power, which kept market confidence low for Putin’s exit.
Putin insists on broader demands in stalled peace talks with US and Ukraine
Putin's refusal to accept a peace deal that does not radically restructure NATO and his stalling of a nearly complete peace agreement with Ukraine maintained political uncertainty, affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin holds public meeting discussing domestic issues, no signs of political upheaval
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
Putin's public engagement on road safety and construction achievements indicated ongoing governance and no indication of removal or resignation, supporting the market's low probability for his exit.
Dozens of municipal deputies call for Putin’s resignation in open letter
On January 13, 2026, municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin’s resignation. Despite this opposition, the call did not lead to any immediate political change or signals of Putin stepping down, thus having limited impact on the market probability of his exit by end 2026.
Dozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies call for Putin resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg signed an open letter demanding Vladimir Putin's resignation as President of Russia, but this was a symbolic petition with no actual removal or resignation of Putin.
Dozens of Russian municipal deputies call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
An open letter signed by municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin's resignation, signaling growing domestic political dissent. This event likely contributed to a decline in market confidence about Putin's continued presidency, reflected in price drops.
Dozens of municipal deputies petition for Putin’s resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin to resign, signaling some political opposition. However, this did not translate into immediate political change or affect Putin’s hold on power, resulting in minimal market impact.
Dozens of Russian city deputies petition for Putin's resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin's resignation, reflecting internal political dissent but lacking sufficient impact to change the presidency within the market timeframe.
Dozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies petition for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin's resignation, signaling internal political dissent. This event briefly raised market speculation about Putin's potential departure, reflected in a slight price increase from 10% to 13%.
Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies publicly call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Dozens of municipal deputies from major cities issued an open letter demanding Putin's resignation, signaling growing political dissent. However, this did not translate into immediate political change, and market prices remained low.
Russian City Deputies Petition for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Dozens of municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin to resign, reflecting growing political dissent but without official impact on his presidency, which kept market prices low for a departure.
Nearly half of Putin's 2025 decrees kept secret, showing tight control
An analysis revealed that about 45% of Putin's executive decrees in 2025 were not made public, underscoring his continued strong grip on power and no signs of stepping down, which likely kept market confidence low for a 'Yes' outcome.
European Commission open to direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission expressed willingness for direct dialogue with Putin to end the Ukraine war, but ongoing hostilities and sanctions keep the situation unresolved, maintaining Putin’s position for now.
European Commission opens door to future direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission publicly stated openness to direct talks with Putin to end the Ukraine war but emphasized that ongoing Russian attacks prevent such dialogue now. This indicated Putin’s continued role as Russia’s leader with no signs of stepping down.
Rumors swirl about health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov
Reports emerged about the poor health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov, fueling speculation about internal stability within Putin's circle. While not directly about Putin, such rumors contributed to market uncertainty regarding the Kremlin's future leadership dynamics.
Peace deal talks with Russia stall despite 90% completion claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Despite claims by European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials that a peace agreement with Russia was 90% complete, Kremlin's distancing from draft terms and Putin's stalling tactics maintained uncertainty about the war's resolution and Putin's political future, impacting market sentiment.
Putin begins 2026 in challenging position, rejects compromise peace
Analysis indicated Putin's reluctance to accept any peace deal that preserves Ukrainian statehood, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the conflict. This contributed to the market's low probability of his removal by end of 2026.
Peace talks between Russia, Ukraine stall amid Kremlin resistance
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
By early January 2026, peace negotiations were reported to be 90% complete but stalled due to Kremlin reluctance to accept terms. Putin’s stalling of the peace deal signaled no imminent political change or resignation, keeping market probabilities low around 10-13%.
Peace talks in Paris show Russia stalls on near-complete Ukraine peace deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
January 6-7 peace talks in Paris revealed Russia, led by Putin, stalling on a peace agreement 90% complete, indicating no political upheaval or leadership change, which kept market probabilities for Putin's exit low.
Peace deal with Russia 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
Despite U.S. and Ukrainian officials claiming a peace agreement was nearly finalized, Putin's Kremlin remained distant from the draft terms, indicating no imminent resignation or removal, which contributed to the market's decline in the probability of Putin leaving office.
Russia and Ukraine Peace Deal Talks Stall as Kremlin Resists Terms
Despite claims by U.S. and Ukrainian officials that a peace deal was 90% complete, Putin's Kremlin distanced itself from the draft terms, indicating no imminent resignation or removal, which maintained market skepticism about Putin leaving office.
Peace talks with Ukraine stall as Kremlin resists key terms
Despite claims that a peace deal was 90% complete, Putin's government stalled negotiations in January 2026, signaling no imminent political change or resignation, which kept market confidence in his presidency stable.
Peace talks with Russia stall despite 90% deal completion claims
In early January 2026, European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials claimed a peace deal with Russia was 90% complete, but Kremlin's position remained distant from draft terms. Putin's stalling reduced hopes for a political transition, keeping market prices low.
Peace deal with Russia claimed 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Despite diplomatic talks in Florida and Paris, Russia under Putin stalled on peace negotiations, maintaining his grip on power and reducing market expectations of his early departure.
Peace deal talks with Russia 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Despite claims by European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials that a peace agreement with Russia was nearly finalized, the Kremlin, led by Putin, stalled progress, indicating his intent to maintain control and avoid concessions that might threaten his presidency.
Peace deal talks 90% complete but Kremlin stalls progress
Despite claims by European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials that a peace agreement with Russia was 90% complete, Putin’s Kremlin stalled negotiations, maintaining a hardline stance. This diminished market expectations for a quick resolution or leadership change, keeping 'Yes' probabilities low.
Analysis highlights uncertainty over Putin’s succession and regime stability
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Reports in early February 2026 discussed potential successors and the future of Putin’s presidency, reflecting ongoing speculation but no concrete developments, which contributed to minor market fluctuations but no decisive price moves.
Maduro's departure raises questions about Putin's influence in Western Hemisphere
The loss of an ally in Venezuela highlighted Putin's limited capacity to divert resources from Ukraine, underscoring his continued focus on the war and absence of any leadership change, which kept market probabilities low.
Russia denies Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence; Trump dismisses claim
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence, which Kyiv denied and Trump dismissed, reflecting ongoing conflict but no impact on Putin’s presidential status.
Peace deal talks stall as Putin resists concessions
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
Despite diplomatic efforts claiming a 90% complete peace deal, Putin's refusal to accept terms prolonged the conflict, signaling his intent to remain in power and diminishing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin ends 2025 with high approval ratings amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Polling data released in early January 2026 showed Putin's approval rating at 85%, near all-time highs, reflecting strong domestic support despite economic slowdown and war pressures. This high approval likely contributed to the market's reduced probability of Putin leaving office by end 2026.
Polls show Putin maintains high approval ratings amid war
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Independent polling from the Levada Centre indicated that Putin continued to enjoy strong public support despite the ongoing war, reducing market expectations of his removal within the near term.
Ukraine claims peace deal 90% complete but Russia remains distant
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
Despite Ukrainian and Western claims of a nearly complete peace deal, Russia under Putin stalled progress, maintaining a hardline stance. This diminished market optimism about a political shift in Russia, keeping the probability of Putin leaving low.
Peace deal with Russia 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
Despite claims by U.S. and Ukrainian officials that a peace deal was nearly finalized, Putin's government stalled negotiations, signaling no imminent change in leadership and maintaining market skepticism about his removal.
Market price drops to lowest point amid no signs of Putin’s removal
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
By early January 2026, the market price for Putin leaving office dropped to 9%, reflecting the absence of any credible news or official announcements indicating his resignation or removal during the analysis window.
Zelensky announces peace deal is 90% ready in New Year speech
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated the peace deal with Russia is 90% ready, adding diplomatic pressure on Putin to engage, though Russian resistance remains strong.
Putin signs decree for year-round conscription amid war pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Putin mandated continuous conscription throughout 2026 to bolster military forces, signaling no intention to relinquish power despite economic and military strains. This action suggested Putin's commitment to maintaining control, dampening market expectations of his removal within 2026.
New conscription and tax policies signal continued Putin governance in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
Putin signed decrees for year-round conscription and tax increases effective January 1, 2026, indicating ongoing active governance and no signs of stepping down. These policy moves reinforced market expectations of Putin remaining in power through 2026.
Putin vows victory in Ukraine war in defiant New Year address
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin publicly vowed victory in the Ukraine war, praising Russian soldiers and framing the conflict as vital to national survival. This defiant stance underscored his firm grip on power and diminished speculation about his resignation or removal.
Putin says Russia will win war in Ukraine in New Year’s Eve address
Putin's speech reinforced his commitment to the war effort and leadership role, contrasting with his predecessor Yeltsin's resignation on the same date 26 years earlier, which kept market expectations for his continuation as president stable.
Russia Faces Economic Crisis with Oil and Gas Revenues Plummeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Energy revenues fell 34% year-on-year in November 2025, forcing increased borrowing and deepening economic instability, which likely contributed to market skepticism about Putin's ability to manage Russia's economy.
Putin Signs Decree Mandating Year-Round Military Conscription
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Putin signed a decree to transition Russian conscription offices to year-round operations starting in 2026, signaling long-term preparation for sustained conflict and reinforcing his hold on power.
Vladimir Putin delivers New Year’s address rallying Russians around war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin's New Year's speech reaffirmed his leadership and commitment to the war effort, signaling no intention to resign or step down, which likely contributed to the market's decline in the probability of his leaving office.
Putin delivers 2026 New Year Address emphasizing national strength and unity
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin's New Year speech reinforced his leadership and commitment to Russia's future, signaling no intention to resign or relinquish power, which likely contributed to a decline in market optimism about his exit.
Putin's New Year Address Omits Mention of Ukraine Peace Talks
In his 2025 New Year speech, Putin spoke briefly about the Ukraine conflict and did not mention ongoing U.S.-mediated peace negotiations, signaling no imminent political change and contributing to market uncertainty about his presidency.
Putin's New Year's speech omits mention of Ukraine peace talks
In his New Year's address, Putin spoke briefly about the Ukraine conflict but did not mention ongoing US-mediated peace talks or any plans to resign, signaling continuity in leadership and reducing market expectations of his departure.
Putin Delivers Traditional New Year's Address Projecting Unity and Vowing Victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Putin used his annual address to rally the nation and project an image of stability and strength, dampening expectations of an imminent exit from the presidency.
Putin proposes constitutional changes to retain power beyond 2024
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin's proposal to amend the constitution to allow continued political influence beyond his presidential term reinforced market views that he would remain in power, contributing to the low probability of his early departure.
Putin ends 2025 with high approval ratings amid economic slowdown
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
Polling showed Putin's approval rating at 85%, near all-time highs, indicating strong public support and political stability, which likely contributed to the market's reduced probability of his departure.
Putin marks 26 years in power during New Year’s address
Putin’s New Year’s address coincided with the 26th anniversary of his rise to power, reinforcing his long-standing control and diminishing speculation about imminent departure, which influenced the market's lower probability of his removal.
Putin delivers New Year address reaffirming confidence in victory and leadership
In his New Year speech, Putin expressed confidence in victory in Ukraine and made no mention of resignation or stepping down, reinforcing market expectations that he would remain president through 2026.
Putin's New Year speech omits mention of Ukraine war or peace talks
In his annual address, Putin spoke briefly about the Ukraine conflict but did not mention ongoing U.S.-mediated peace talks, signaling no change in his position or hint of resignation, which likely maintained market confidence in his presidency.
Putin uses New Year’s Address to rally Russians around ongoing war effort
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin delivered a New Year’s address marking his 26th year in power, focusing on national unity and the war effort. This public reaffirmation of leadership further diminished expectations of his resignation within 2026.
Putin delivers brief New Year speech, omits Ukraine peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
Putin's short New Year's address avoided mention of peace negotiations or resignation, reinforcing expectations he would remain president, contributing to the market's low probability of his removal.
Putin delivers New Year’s address reaffirming leadership and war stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
On December 31, 2025, Vladimir Putin gave his traditional New Year’s Eve speech, rallying Russians around the war effort and marking 26 years since he first came to power. This reinforced his continued hold on the presidency, contributing to stable low market probabilities for his removal.
Historical note: Boris Yeltsin resigned on December 31, 1999
The market likely referenced the historical precedent of Yeltsin's resignation on December 31, 1999, which brought Putin to power, but no similar event occurred in 2025, maintaining low probabilities for Putin's exit.
Putin delivers defiant New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
In his annual New Year speech, Putin expressed confidence in Russia's eventual victory in Ukraine and rallied national unity, showing no signs of resignation or removal. This reinforced market expectations that he would remain president through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining prices for his exit.
Peace deal with Russia 90% complete but stalled by Kremlin
European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials reported a peace agreement with Russia was 90% complete but stalled due to Kremlin's distant position. Putin's stalling indicated no imminent political change or resignation, maintaining market skepticism about his departure before end of 2026.
Russian Military Details Alleged Drone Attack on Putin’s Residence
On December 31, 2025, Russia’s Defense Ministry provided detailed accounts of the alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence, emphasizing the defensive success. This reinforced the narrative of ongoing conflict pressures but did not indicate any change in Putin’s presidency.
Putin delivers muted New Year’s address reaffirming leadership
In his New Year’s Eve address, Putin emphasized Russia's future and strength without mentioning any plans to step down, reinforcing his continued presidency and contributing to market stability.
Zelensky Denies Alleged Ukrainian Drone Attack on Putin's Residence
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Ukraine denied Russian allegations of a drone strike targeting one of Putin's residences, an incident that threatened to derail peace talks and escalate tensions but did not result in physical harm to the Russian leader.
Putin delivers defiant New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
In his December 30, 2025 New Year address, Putin vowed victory in the Ukraine conflict and framed the war as vital to Russia's survival, reinforcing his leadership role and commitment to ongoing conflict, which likely suppressed market expectations of his departure.
Putin delivers brief New Year address emphasizing national strength and future
In his New Year address, Putin focused on national unity and strength without mentioning any plans to resign or transition, reinforcing expectations of his continued presidency.
Putin delivers muted New Year address emphasizing unity and war victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin's New Year address on December 30, 2025, was brief and focused on rallying Russians around the war effort and national unity, with no indication of stepping down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Analysis warns of Russia's economic and military strain entering 2026
Reports highlighted Russia's economic downturn, depleted military resources, and potential for hybrid escalation in 2026, suggesting increased internal pressures but no immediate political change in Putin's presidency. This context contributed to cautious market sentiment but did not trigger a significant price shift.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, threatening peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone strike on one of Putin's residences, which Kyiv denied, causing a setback in peace negotiations and increasing tensions, thereby maintaining uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone strike on Putin's residence, threatening peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On December 30, 2025, Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on one of Putin's residences, escalating tensions and undermining peace negotiations. This incident highlighted ongoing conflict but did not affect Putin's status as president.
Putin delivers New Year address affirming leadership
On December 30, 2025, Vladimir Putin delivered a New Year address to the nation, reinforcing his position as Russia's president and signaling continuity of leadership. This helped stabilize market expectations about his remaining in office.
Investigation reveals Putin's private hospital in mega mansion
An investigation highlighted Putin's focus on health and longevity with a private hospital in his mansion, fueling speculation about his health but not indicating any imminent resignation or removal, thus having limited impact on the market.
Dozens of Russian city deputies publicly call for Putin's resignation
On January 13, 2026, dozens of municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg signed an open letter demanding Vladimir Putin's resignation, signaling internal political dissent. This event briefly raised market speculation about Putin's potential removal but did not lead to immediate changes in his presidency.
Russia alleges Ukrainian drone assassination attempt on Putin's residence
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russian officials claimed Ukraine launched 91 drones in an assassination attempt on Putin's residence, escalating tensions and impacting peace negotiations. This event caused a temporary market reaction, increasing perceived risks to Putin's position but did not indicate imminent removal.
Russia claims Ukraine attacked Putin's residence; Kyiv denies
Russian officials alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence, justifying a tougher negotiating stance, but Ukraine denied the claim, creating uncertainty but no indication of Putin's removal, causing minor market fluctuations.
Putin signs law allowing Russia to ignore foreign and international criminal rulings
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin signed legislation enabling Russia to disregard criminal rulings from foreign and international courts, signaling defiance against ICC warrants and reducing the likelihood of his removal through legal means.
Alleged Ukrainian Drone Attack on Putin’s Residence Reported
On December 29, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed Ukrainian forces launched a large drone attack on Putin's Valdai residence, which Russia said was repelled. This incident heightened tensions and uncertainty about Putin's security and political stability, influencing market perceptions.
Putin and Trump agree to continue peace talks after Mar-a-Lago meeting
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Following a December 28, 2025, phone call, Putin and US President Donald Trump agreed to further discussions on peace, but no breakthrough occurred. This maintained uncertainty but did not signal Putin's removal, keeping market prices steady.
Putin agrees with Trump to continue diplomatic efforts on Ukraine conflict
On December 28, 2025, Putin held a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, agreeing to continue efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict through working groups on security and economic issues. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's ongoing active role as president, reducing market expectations of his imminent exit.
Trump says Ukraine and Russia 'closer than ever' to peace after talks with Zelenskyy
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, US President Trump indicated progress toward peace between Russia and Ukraine, raising market speculation about potential shifts in Putin's position, though no direct impact on his presidency occurred.
Putin and Trump discuss Ukrainian conflict, agree on working groups
A telephone conversation between Putin and U.S. President Trump resulted in agreement to continue diplomatic efforts via working groups on security and economic issues. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, maintaining market skepticism about his removal.
Trump and Zelenskyy Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Peace Plan After Productive Call with Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
High-stakes negotiations in Florida brought the sides closer to a potential peace deal, reinforcing the likelihood of a negotiated settlement rather than an abrupt, unmanaged regime change in Russia.
Putin holds strategic meeting with military leadership ahead of US-Ukraine talks
Putin met with Russian General Staff and commanders to discuss military operations just before the US President’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky, signaling no political change or resignation plans. This meeting aimed to project strength and continuity in leadership.
Putin holds meetings with military amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Putin met with top military officials approving their reports and instructed them to maintain strategic initiative, signaling no intention to step down despite ongoing peace negotiations. This reinforced market skepticism about Putin leaving office soon, contributing to a price drop from 17% to 13%.
Putin warns Ukraine peace unlikely without forceful resolution
Putin stated that if Ukraine does not seek peace, Russia will achieve its goals by force, indicating a hardline stance and no sign of political retreat or resignation, which maintained low market probability for his exit.
Putin warns Ukraine not in hurry for peace, vows to achieve goals by force
On December 27, 2025, Putin publicly stated that Ukraine was not eager for peace and that Russia would achieve its objectives by force if necessary. This defiant stance underscored his control and determination to remain in power, which likely tempered market expectations of his early departure.
Peace deal with Russia 90% complete but Putin stalls progress
European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials claimed a peace agreement with Russia was 90% complete by late December 2025, but Putin's Kremlin stalled the deal, maintaining a distant position from the draft terms. This prolonged uncertainty contributed to market skepticism about Putin stepping down.
Putin indicates openness to territory swap but insists on full Donbas control
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin told top Russian businessmen he might accept swapping some Ukrainian territory but demanded the entire Donbas region, reflecting a hardline stance that suggested continuity in his presidency and no sign of stepping down.
Speculation Swirls That Putin Could Step Down Following a Post-War Peace Deal
Reports emerged suggesting that if a peace deal is finalized at the upcoming Mar-a-Lago meeting, Putin might step down in favor of a more moderate successor like Dmitri Kozak, having secured his legacy.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev speaks at Miami peace talks
Dmitriev participated in December 2025 Miami peace talks with U.S. negotiators, signaling Russia's diplomatic engagement despite Putin's resistance to the 90% complete peace deal.
Putin signals openness to partial territory swap in Ukraine peace talks
Putin indicated willingness to negotiate territorial exchanges while insisting on retaining Donbas, suggesting a pragmatic approach that tempered fears of abrupt political upheaval.
Russia Reports Slow but Steady Progress in Peace Talks with United States
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that talks with the U.S. regarding Ukraine were progressing constructively, signaling potential diplomatic stabilization rather than sudden regime disruption.
Peace deal talks with Ukraine stall despite 90% completion claims
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Diplomatic efforts in December 2025 and January 2026 indicated a peace agreement with Ukraine was 90% complete, but Putin and the Kremlin stalled progress, maintaining the status quo and reducing likelihood of leadership change in the near term.
Peace deal talks with Russia 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
Diplomatic efforts between the US, Ukraine, and Russia reached a near-complete peace agreement, but Putin's Kremlin stalled progress, avoiding direct confrontation while not conceding. This prolonged conflict and uncertainty about Putin's political future kept market probabilities for his removal low.
Peace deal with Russia 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Diplomatic talks in December 2025 and January 2026 indicated a peace agreement with Russia was nearly finalized, but Putin’s Kremlin stalled progress, maintaining the status quo and reducing immediate risks of his removal. This prolonged conflict without resolution likely kept market probabilities low.
Peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. stall despite 90% agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Diplomatic efforts to end the war were reported to be 90% complete but stalled due to Kremlin resistance, with Putin justifying delays. This prolonged conflict and lack of resolution contributed to market skepticism about any imminent change in Putin's presidency.
Peace deal with Russia reportedly 90% complete but Kremlin stalls
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials claimed a peace agreement with Russia was nearly finalized, but Putin’s government stalled progress, signaling no imminent leadership change and maintaining market skepticism about Putin leaving office.
Putin’s 2025 address signals institutionalization of wartime state and regime stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin’s December 2025 speech highlighted the permanent wartime state and incorporation of veterans into government, reinforcing regime stability and continuity. This institutionalization diminished market expectations of Putin leaving office soon.
Putin offers no compromise on Ukraine war in annual Q&A
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
In his end-of-year press conference, Putin reaffirmed his hardline stance on the Ukraine war, signaling no intention to step down or alter his presidency. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued hold on power, contributing to the decline in the probability of his leaving office by the market's end date.
Putin Delivers Year-End Address Emphasizing War Effort and Stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On December 19, 2025, Vladimir Putin gave a year-end address reinforcing his commitment to Russia's war efforts and national stability, signaling no intention to step down. This reassured supporters but did not alleviate concerns about his long-term hold on power, contributing to a slight market price decline.
Putin holds annual news conference affirming military goals in Ukraine
Putin expressed confidence in achieving military objectives in Ukraine, reinforcing his leadership and control. This public show of strength likely reduced market expectations of his early departure.
Putin asserts Russia will meet military goals in Ukraine at year-end press conference
At his annual year-end press conference, Putin expressed confidence in Russia's military progress and stated that the Kremlin's goals in Ukraine would be achieved if Kyiv did not accept Russia's conditions, reinforcing his hold on power and commitment to the conflict.
Putin holds end-of-year press conference focusing on Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
On December 19, 2025, Vladimir Putin held his annual press conference emphasizing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, reinforcing his commitment to the war effort. This maintained market skepticism about any imminent resignation or removal, keeping the probability stable around 13-14%.
Putin asserts Kremlin's military goals in Ukraine will be met
At his annual year-end press conference, Putin reaffirmed Russia's commitment to its military objectives in Ukraine, signaling no intention to step down or alter his leadership role, which maintained market skepticism about his removal.
Putin holds annual end-year press conference focusing on Ukraine war
Putin's December 19 press conference emphasized the ongoing war in Ukraine without signaling any intention to resign or leave office, maintaining market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin holds year-end press conference with no indication of stepping down
Putin's year-end Q&A reiterated his stance on the Ukraine war and showed no signs of resignation or removal, reinforcing market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin Vows No More Invasions if West Treats Russia with Respect During Direct Line Marathon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
During his annual televised 'Direct Line' press conference, Vladimir Putin projected confidence, addressed economic concerns, and outlined conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, signaling his intention to remain firmly in control.
Putin holds annual year-end Q&A focusing on Ukraine war
Vladimir Putin conducted his annual year-end press conference emphasizing the ongoing war in Ukraine, reinforcing his role as Russia's leader and showing no signs of stepping down, which maintained market confidence in his presidency.
Putin delivers 2025 Year-End Address reaffirming leadership and policy direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
In his December 19, 2025, address and press conference, Putin emphasized continuity in governance and Russia's strategic posture, signaling no intention to resign or step down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining probabilities for his departure.
Putin reaffirms strategic initiative in Ukraine war during year-end address
In his December 19 address, Putin highlighted Russian military advances and framed the conflict as a strategic success, reinforcing his leadership and reducing market expectations of his removal.
Putin reaffirms commitment to war aims at annual press conference
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin's televised press conference reiterated his determination to continue his presidency and pursue full war aims, reducing market speculation about his imminent departure.
Putin holds annual end-of-year press conference focusing on Ukraine war
Putin's December 19 press conference reiterated his control and stance on the Ukraine conflict, reinforcing his position as president and reducing market speculation about imminent resignation or removal.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation
A growing number of retired Russian officers, including Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, publicly urged Putin to resign or be removed, citing the Ukraine war's toll. This increased political pressure contributed to market volatility but did not lead to immediate change in Putin's status.
Retired Russian General Calls for Putin Resignation Over Ukraine War
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly urged Putin to resign or be removed by constitutional procedures, signaling growing military dissent about the Ukraine conflict's viability.
Putin outlines six strategic priorities for Russia in 2026
President Putin presented six key tasks for 2026, emphasizing demographic, economic, and technological development, signaling continuity of his leadership and government policies. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's ongoing presidency.
ICC confirms Putin arrest warrant remains despite peace talks
The International Criminal Court stated that arrest warrants for Putin will remain active even if peace talks lead to amnesty, underscoring ongoing legal pressures but no immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin warns Ukraine troops must withdraw from Donbas or Russia will seize it
President Vladimir Putin reiterated a hardline stance rejecting compromise over the war in Ukraine, signaling no intention to step down or alter his presidential role, which likely contributed to market stability around his continued presidency.
Kremlin announces Putin's year-end Direct Line Q&A session for December 19
The announcement of Putin's scheduled public engagement reinforced his continued leadership and presence in Russian politics, signaling stability and reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects compromise in India interview
In an interview ahead of his India visit, Putin emphasized that Russia will end the Ukraine war only after achieving his original goals, rejecting compromise and demanding NATO rollback. This reinforced expectations of Putin's continued leadership and reduced speculation about his removal.
Putin vows to seize Donbas region by any means amid upcoming peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
On December 4, Putin publicly reaffirmed Russia's determination to seize the Donbas region by military or other means, signaling continued strong leadership and no indication of stepping down. This statement maintained market expectations of Putin's ongoing presidency.
Putin vows to take full control of Ukraine's Donbas region militarily or otherwise
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
In an interview, Putin reaffirmed his commitment to securing the Donbas region by force if necessary, signaling no intention to step down or change course despite military and economic pressures, which likely stabilized market expectations about his presidency.
Analysis highlights regime transition without clear successor for Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Reports indicated that personnel changes and political restructuring in 2024-2025 marked the start of a regime transition concentrating authority in Putin's hands but delegating routine management, suggesting no imminent departure.
Putin's Scheduled December Q&A and India Visit Confirm Continued Leadership
Putin's planned annual Q&A session and state visit to India in December 2025 demonstrated his active role in governance and international diplomacy, reinforcing market confidence in his ongoing presidency and lowering chances of early departure.
Putin's regime faces economic and military crises amid war stalemate
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
By late 2025, Russia was trapped in a costly war of attrition in Ukraine with severe economic strain, including falling energy revenues and rising borrowing. These pressures heightened speculation about Putin's political future but did not trigger his removal.
Putin meets US envoys and doubles down on threats to Europe before Ukraine peace talks
Putin's engagement in diplomacy combined with aggressive rhetoric reinforced his active leadership role, reducing market speculation about his stepping down before the end of 2026.
Putin answers journalists' questions amid ongoing political uncertainty
Putin held a public Q&A session addressing various issues, reinforcing his active role as president and diminishing speculation about his imminent departure, contributing to a further decline in market probability for his removal.
Putin warns Europe: Russia ready for war if provoked
On the eve of peace talks, Putin publicly warned Europe that Russia was prepared for war, signaling a hardline stance and consolidating his authority. This assertiveness likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down or being removed soon.
Putin rejects US-Ukrainian peace proposal, signals continuation of war aims
On December 2, 2025, Putin publicly rejected a US-Ukrainian peace plan, maintaining maximalist war demands and signaling no intention to relinquish power or change course. This contributed to market stability at a low Yes probability.
Putin doubles down on threats toward Europe ahead of US peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Ahead of peace talks with the US, Putin declared Russia was ready for war with Europe, signaling a hardline stance and continued control over Russian policy. This reinforced expectations of his ongoing presidency and reduced market odds of his removal.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow, reiterates firm stance on Ukraine
Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reaffirming Russia's objectives in Ukraine and rejecting compromises on key demands, signaling his continued control and leadership role.
Putin meets US envoys, warns Russia ready for war with Europe
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
On December 2, 2025, Putin met with US envoys and warned Europe of readiness for war, reinforcing his strongman image and signaling no intention to resign. This event likely sustained the market's low probability of his early exit.
Putin meets US envoys to discuss revised Ukraine peace proposal
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
On December 2, Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss a revised 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. This high-profile diplomatic engagement underscored Putin's active leadership role, with no signs of resignation or removal, influencing market sentiment downward slightly.
Putin declares Russia ready for war with Europe ahead of peace talks
On December 2, 2025, Putin stated Russia was 'ready' for war if Europe sought one, doubling down on threats amid peace talks with the U.S. This assertive stance reinforced his active role and control, diminishing market speculation about his resignation or removal.
Putin answers journalists amid ongoing political tensions
Putin's public engagement with journalists amid ongoing political and economic challenges reassured some market participants of his continued hold on power, contributing to a slight price stabilization.
Putin Affirms Readiness for War with Europe Ahead of Peace Talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin's public declaration of readiness for war with Europe ahead of peace talks signaled his unyielding stance and control over Russia's military and political direction, likely reducing market expectations of his imminent removal.
Resignation of Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Andriy Yermak resigned as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, signaling shifts in Ukraine's negotiating team during ongoing peace talks with Russia. This event affected market perceptions of the conflict's trajectory and Putin's political stability, influencing the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Putin’s government resigns amid constitutional changes and political uncertainty
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Following Putin’s proposal for constitutional reforms, the resignation of the government led by Dmitry Medvedev signaled political restructuring but reinforced Putin’s central role, dampening market expectations of his departure before 2026 end.
Andriy Yermak resigns as Ukraine's chief of staff amid scandal
The resignation of Ukraine's chief of staff following a corruption scandal was a significant political event but did not directly affect Putin's presidency. It influenced peace negotiations but did not increase the likelihood of Putin leaving office.
Reports Reveal Dmitry Kozak Criticized Ukraine War in Letter to Putin Before Resigning
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Investigative reports detailed that former deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak strongly criticized the invasion of Ukraine in a letter to Putin before stepping down, highlighting the complete marginalization of critics within the regime.
Putin details peace negotiation stance, rejecting compromises short of original war goals
On November 28, 2025, Putin publicly articulated a firm position on Ukraine peace talks, emphasizing either Ukrainian diplomatic concession or Russian military victory. This reinforced his political resolve and diminished speculation about his stepping down.
Zelenskyy's chief of staff resigns amid corruption investigations
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
While significant for Ukraine, this event had no direct impact on Putin's presidency or indications of his removal. It likely had minimal or no effect on the market for Putin's exit.
Kremlin insider Dmitry Kozak criticizes Ukraine war in letter before resigning
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Dmitry Kozak's resignation and his critical letter on the Ukraine war highlighted internal dissent within Putin's circle, raising concerns about political stability but not directly threatening Putin's presidency.
Kremlin insider Dmitry Kozak resigns after criticizing Ukraine war in letter to Putin
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime Putin ally, submitted a resignation letter alongside a strongly worded critique of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, signaling internal dissent within Putin's circle and raising questions about his political stability.
Putin discusses Ukraine conflict and peace negotiations publicly
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%1%
Putin gave detailed remarks on the Ukraine conflict and peace negotiations, signaling his continued active role in governance, which may have reassured some market participants about his presidency lasting through December 31, 2026.
Putin Expresses Openness to US-Backed Peace Plan Framework
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
At the CSTO summit, Putin stated that a leaked US-backed peace plan could serve as a basis for future agreements, though he maintained firm territorial demands.
Putin doubles down on demands for Ukrainian territory ahead of US talks
Putin reiterated his core demands for Ukraine to withdraw from territories claimed by Russia, signaling no intention to compromise or step down. This hardened stance likely reinforced market views of Putin's continued presidency through 2026.
Putin attends CSTO summit, endorses US peace plan framework with conditions
At the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Bishkek on November 27, 2025, Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan as a framework, showing diplomatic engagement but no sign of stepping down. This event sustained market expectations of Putin's continued presidency.
Putin says US-backed peace plan as framework is OK ‘in general’
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan framework but insisted on Russia's territorial demands, signaling his continued control and unwillingness to compromise fully. This stance suggested stability in his presidency, contributing to a decline in market expectations of his removal.
Putin denies plans to attack Europe, offers written guarantee against invasion
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
At the CSTO summit, Putin dismissed claims of Russian plans to invade Europe as lies and offered to guarantee in writing no attack on European nations, projecting confidence and stability in his leadership. This reassured markets about regime continuity.
Putin says US-Ukraine peace text could form basis for future deal
Putin acknowledged the US-Ukraine peace proposals as a potential framework but insisted on territorial concessions, signaling no immediate leadership change and stabilizing market sentiment.
Putin Offers Written Guarantees of No Attack on Europe and Signals Openness to Peace Talks
Speaking at the CSTO summit in Bishkek, Putin dismissed fears of a Russian invasion of Europe as ridiculous and expressed willingness to document this guarantee, while projecting confidence in Russia's geopolitical position.
Putin reaffirms readiness for war, rejects major concessions
At the CSTO summit, Putin declared Russia's readiness for war if Europe seeks it and rejected significant territorial concessions, signaling a continuation of his current policies. This stance likely decreased market expectations of his imminent departure, reflected in stable low prices for his removal.
Andriy Yermak resigns as head of Ukraine's Presidential Office
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%3%
Andriy Yermak's resignation in November 2025 reduced the impact of Ukrainian corruption scandals on peace negotiations, signaling a potential shift in diplomatic dynamics but not directly affecting Putin's presidency status. This event coincided with a minor price trough and subsequent rebound in the market.
Putin signs document to strengthen Russian identity in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Putin signed a document mandating increased efforts to promote Russian identity in annexed Ukrainian territories, demonstrating continued political control and no signs of stepping down, which maintained the market's low probability of his removal.
Putin attends summit in Tajikistan amid limited public appearances
Putin's rare public engagement at a summit raised questions about his health and leadership continuity, but he remained in office with no indication of resignation or removal, maintaining market stability at a low level.
Putin's Ukraine War Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid German Chancellor's Statement
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated Putin has no option to leave the Ukraine war successfully, intensifying pressure on Putin's leadership and signaling potential instability in Russia's military and diplomatic posture.
German Chancellor states Putin cannot leave Ukraine war successfully
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly declared that Putin has no viable option to exit the Ukraine war successfully, signaling continued conflict and political stability for Putin's presidency, which likely reduced market expectations of his removal.
Putin visits military command post, asserts confidence in victory in Ukraine
Putin's public visit to a military command post and his confident messaging about battlefield advances reinforced his grip on power and diminished market expectations of his removal by end of 2026.
Release of 2026 Putin calendar highlights his continued public prominence
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
The publication of a popular 2026 calendar featuring Putin in various active poses reinforced his image as a strong leader, supporting market sentiment of his ongoing presidency.
Putin signals readiness for war amid US peace drive
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Putin declared Russia's readiness to continue fighting in Ukraine despite US peace efforts, reinforcing his grip on power and reducing market expectations of an imminent exit.
Putin endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement but warns of continued fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
Putin indicated willingness to consider the US 28-point peace plan pending meaningful discussion, while also warning that Russia could continue military operations if negotiations fail. This stance suggested Putin's active leadership role and no sign of stepping down, influencing market sentiment downward.
Putin watches as US-Russia peace plan leaks cause disarray among allies
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
The leaked 28-point US-Russia peace proposal created confusion among Washington, Kyiv, and European capitals, a situation Putin exploited to maintain leverage. His passive stance and control over negotiations indicated no sign of stepping down, further lowering market expectations of his removal.
Retired general calls for Putin resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly called for Vladimir Putin to resign or be forced out by constitutional procedures, citing the Ukraine war as draining Russia's resources.
Putin delivers brief address at Moscow stadium amid ongoing war
On November 23, 2025, Putin gave a notably short speech to a large crowd in Moscow, reaffirming his leadership during a critical phase of the Ukraine conflict. This event underscored his continued control and presence, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin dismisses Ukraine peace plan, insists on maximalist demands
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
Putin publicly rejected the US peace plan for Ukraine, emphasizing his maximalist territorial and security demands, signaling no intention to step down or compromise, which kept market confidence in his presidency stable but low.
Putin Backs U.S. 28-Point Peace Plan as Basis for Final Ukraine Settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Vladimir Putin cautiously welcomed a U.S.-proposed peace plan that aligned with many of Moscow's demands, demonstrating his strong diplomatic leverage and lowering the likelihood of his removal.
Putin addresses Security Council on U.S. peace plan, signals continued leadership
On November 21, 2025, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting discussing the U.S.-proposed peace plan, reaffirming his leadership role and Russia's war aims. This reinforced market views that Putin would remain president through at least the end of 2026, contributing to the low probability of his early exit.
Putin endorses U.S. peace plan as basis for Ukraine peace talks
On November 21, 2025, Putin publicly stated that the U.S. peace plan could serve as a basis for peace in Ukraine, signaling a willingness to negotiate but not indicating any intention to resign or leave office, which kept market probabilities for his removal low.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Growing dissent among military elites, including calls for Putin to resign due to the Ukraine conflict's toll, increased market concerns about Putin's political future, impacting the probability of his removal.
Putin cautiously endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin publicly stated that the US-proposed peace plan could serve as a framework for ending the Ukraine conflict, showing diplomatic engagement without conceding key demands. This tempered market expectations of a sudden leadership change, contributing to a further decline in the probability of Putin's removal.
Putin says US peace plan could be basis for Ukraine peace but demands remain
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
On November 21, 2025, Putin acknowledged the US peace proposal as a potential basis for settlement but insisted on key demands, showing no readiness to compromise or step down. This stance maintained market skepticism about his early departure.
Putin addresses US-proposed 28-point peace plan at Security Council
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
On November 21, 2025, Putin publicly discussed the US peace plan, signaling willingness to engage on terms favorable to Russia, which influenced market perceptions by reducing immediate fears of his removal.
Putin publicly acknowledges mortality after meeting AI-powered dancing robot
Putin's remarks about not living forever during a public event highlighted ongoing health concerns and the personal awareness of his mortality, which may have influenced market sentiment about his future in office.
Putin visits Western Grouping of Forces command post in military uniform
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
On November 20, 2025, Putin wore a military uniform during a visit to a command post, reinforcing his leadership image amid the war and peace negotiations, which temporarily supported market confidence in his presidency.
Kremlin Confirms Putin Does Not Personally Use AI, Officials Do
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
On November 20, 2025, the Kremlin stated that Putin himself does not use AI tools, but officials working for him do. This event indicated ongoing normalcy in Putin's administration and no signs of political upheaval, coinciding with the market's low confidence in his removal by December 31, 2026.
Kremlin states Putin does not personally use AI but officials do
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
The Kremlin's statement that Putin himself does not use AI tools but officials do, alongside his call for a national AI task force, indicated ongoing active governance and no signs of stepping down, contributing to market decline in exit probability.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional changes and governance reshuffle
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
The Russian government resigned, and Putin proposed constitutional changes limiting presidential power, signaling a potential transition strategy but not an immediate end to Putin's presidency. This contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's long-term hold on power.
Putin meets Togo's president in Kremlin, signaling ongoing governance
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Putin's meeting with Togo's president on November 19 demonstrated his continued active role as Russia's president, with no indication of resignation or removal, reinforcing market confidence in his incumbency through 2026.
Analysis highlights uncertainty over Putin's succession among Moscow elite
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%1%
Reports on the siloviki elite's internal dynamics suggested no clear successor or imminent transition, supporting market views that Putin would remain president through the near term.
Report: Moscow elite ensure no smooth succession for Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
A report detailed how the Russian leadership has engineered a system where constitutional succession is largely symbolic, with real power held by security elites. This diminished market confidence in a near-term presidential change, stabilizing prices at a lower level.
Siloviki Elite Dominates Succession Debate: Mishustin Lacks Backing
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
A Telegraph article highlighted that the security establishment (siloviki) ultimately matters in Russia, and that Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin lacks their backing, making a smooth succession unlikely.
Analysis highlights potential successors amid Putin's weakening grip
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
On November 19, 2025, analysis of the Moscow siloviki elite suggested that leadership contenders were more focused on personal gains than geopolitical crusades, indicating a possible regime transition. This reinforced market doubts about Putin's long-term hold on power but did not signal immediate removal.
Putin meets Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Moscow
On November 19, Putin met with China’s Premier Li Qiang, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and political stability, which likely contributed to the market settling at a lower probability of Putin’s exit by December 31, 2026.
Analysis highlights lack of clear successor to Putin amid elite power struggles
Reports emphasized that despite constitutional provisions, Putin’s succession remains uncertain due to lack of support for the formal successor among the powerful siloviki security elite, underscoring regime stability but also long-term uncertainty.
Rising internal dissent and economic challenges in Russia raise questions about Putin's future
Reports highlighted growing dissatisfaction within Russia's political and military ranks and economic difficulties, fueling speculation about regime stability. However, no direct moves against Putin's presidency occurred, leading to minor market fluctuations but no significant price recovery.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets Putin in Moscow amid ongoing tensions
On November 18, 2025, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Putin in Moscow, signaling continued diplomatic support for Putin's regime. This meeting likely reinforced market perceptions of Putin's stability and reduced the probability of his removal by the end of 2026.
Kremlin hopes for new Putin-Trump summit amid ongoing diplomacy
The Kremlin expressed hope for another summit between Putin and Trump to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, indicating Putin's active engagement in diplomacy and continued leadership, which likely kept market probabilities for his exit low.
Kremlin expresses hope for new Putin-Trump summit
The Kremlin announced hopes for another summit with US President Trump to negotiate Ukraine conflict resolution, signaling Putin's ongoing active leadership role and reducing speculation about his removal.
CNN reports rare Kremlin access showing Putin's active leadership
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
CNN's rare access inside the Kremlin and coverage of Putin's meetings reinforced his continued active role and control, reducing speculation about his imminent removal and contributing to a dip in market prices.
Kremlin Acknowledges Brief Hospitalization of Putin Amid Fresh Health Rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Reports emerged detailing Putin's 'swollen and sore' hands at a public event, alongside a Kremlin acknowledgment of a brief hospitalization in Moscow following a prior two-week absence from public life.
Kremlin acknowledges Putin was hospitalized after two-week absence
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
The Kremlin confirmed that Putin was hospitalized in Moscow following a two-week absence from public life, intensifying health concerns and contributing to market uncertainty about his presidency continuing through December 31, 2026.
Retired Russian General Calls for Putin's Resignation Over Ukraine War
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%8%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov publicly called for President Putin to resign or be constitutionally removed due to dissatisfaction with the Ukraine conflict, raising questions about Putin's leadership but without immediate impact on his presidency.
Putin reiterates commitment to constitutional term limits amid political challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin emphasized maintaining the current two-term presidential limit despite political pressures, signaling no intention to extend or abruptly end his presidency. This reaffirmation contributed to a market price drop to 14% for the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting reduced expectations of his early departure.
Growing dissent among Russian military officers calls for Putin's resignation
Retired generals publicly called for Putin to resign or be removed, highlighting internal dissent but no official change occurred, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline.
Anti-war protests in Putin's hometown signal growing dissent
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
A viral video showed hundreds in St. Petersburg singing a forbidden anti-war song, a rare act of defiance indicating cracks in Putin's domestic support. This social unrest contributed to market uncertainty but did not significantly increase the probability of Putin's removal.
Growing dissent among Russian generals calls for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other Russian officers publicly questioned Putin's Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation or removal, highlighting internal elite dissatisfaction. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of Putin remaining president.
Russian government resigns after Putin proposes constitutional reforms weakening presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
The entire Russian government resigned to clear the way for Putin's proposed constitutional amendments that would reduce presidential powers, signaling a managed transition rather than an exit, which tempered market expectations.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin’s resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers criticized Putin’s Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation, increasing political pressure but not triggering immediate change, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline.
Putin approves sale of Citibank’s Russian operations amid Western sanctions
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
On November 12, Putin authorized the sale of Citibank’s remaining Russian operations, demonstrating continued control over economic decisions despite sanctions, which did not increase market expectations of his exit, reflected in a price around 15-16%.
Putin meets Kazakhstan president amid ongoing war and political challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
On November 11, 2025, Putin held a meeting with Kazakhstan's president inside the Kremlin, demonstrating his continued exercise of presidential duties despite internal and external pressures. This event underscored Putin's retention of power, contributing to the market's low probability of his removal by end 2026.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
A growing number of retired Russian military officers, including Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, openly criticized Putin's Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation, increasing political pressure but without immediate effect on his presidency.
Retired Russian General Calls for Putin's Resignation Over Ukraine War
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov publicly called for Vladimir Putin to resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, highlighting growing dissent within Russian military circles. This statement contributed to market uncertainty but did not indicate an immediate change in Putin's status.
Analysis highlights Putin's regime transition without clear successor
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Reports indicated ongoing personnel changes and regime restructuring in Russia, suggesting a transition process but no immediate change in presidency. This contributed to a market price decline as uncertainty about Putin's near-term departure increased.
Putin publicly endorses U.S. peace plan as basis for Ukraine settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
On November 11, 2025, Putin cautiously welcomed a U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, indicating a potential shift toward negotiation but without signaling any intention to resign. This tempered market optimism slightly but did not increase expectations of Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reforms
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%7%
The resignation of Russia's government and proposed constitutional changes aimed to reshape power dynamics, potentially allowing Putin to maintain influence beyond 2024. This political restructuring caused a temporary drop in market optimism about Putin leaving office soon.
Three journalists detained outside Putin’s residence
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Three opposition journalists were detained near Putin's residence, highlighting ongoing repression and the regime's tightening grip. This event underscored Putin's continued control and absence of signs of resignation or removal, contributing to the market's low probability of his exit.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Public appearances showing Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands fueled widespread rumors about his health, raising questions about his ability to continue in office. This speculation increased uncertainty in the market about Putin's longevity as president, contributing to a decline in the probability of his remaining in office.
Kremlin denies rift between Putin and top diplomat Sergei Lavrov
Speculation about a fallout between Putin and his long-time ally Sergei Lavrov was publicly denied by the Kremlin, reinforcing perceptions of regime stability and reducing market expectations of Putin’s imminent removal.
Putin reportedly sends Sergei Lavrov into disgrace after summit fallout
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin blamed Lavrov for angering the Trump administration, reportedly sidelining the veteran foreign minister, indicating internal tensions but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency, which kept market confidence in his tenure.
Kremlin Denies Rumors of Fallout Between Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
The Kremlin actively dismissed speculation that President Vladimir Putin had fallen out with his long-serving top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, signaling internal stability and dampening rumors of high-level regime fractures.
Kremlin denies reports of fallout between Putin and top diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Speculation about a rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was publicly denied by the Kremlin, reducing market fears of imminent political instability or leadership change.
Kremlin denies reports of Putin-Lavrov fallout
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Rumors circulated that Putin had fallen out with his top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, but the Kremlin officially denied these claims. This reassured markets about regime stability, contributing to a slight price stabilization.
Sberbank CEO reports Russia's economic growth worse than expected to Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
Economic difficulties acknowledged by a major bank CEO in a meeting with Putin highlight ongoing challenges but no political crisis leading to Putin's removal. Market price remained low reflecting persistent uncertainty.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers criticized Putin's Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation, highlighting growing dissent within Russia's military elite. This increased market doubts about Putin's stability in office, contributing to a price decline.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fallout despite speculation
Despite reports of a rift between Putin and his top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, the Kremlin publicly denied any falling out, indicating the diplomatic tension was unconfirmed and potentially exaggerated.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark renewed health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
In November 2025, fresh images of Putin's swollen and sore hands fueled global speculation about his health, raising concerns about his ability to fulfill presidential duties. Despite Kremlin denials, these health rumors contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Renewed global speculation over Putin's health after images show swollen, sore hands
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%3%
Fresh images of Putin's swollen and sore hands fueled rumors about his health, raising questions about his ability to govern but without official confirmation, contributing to some market uncertainty.
Putin's health rumors intensify after public appearance with swollen hands
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Images of Putin's visibly swollen and sore hands sparked renewed speculation about his health, fueling market uncertainty about his ability to continue in office. Despite Kremlin denials, these rumors contributed to a decline in market optimism about Putin's tenure.
Kremlin Denies Reports of Rift Between Putin and Top Diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Speculation about a falling out between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov circulated but was officially denied by the Kremlin. This denial reduced fears of immediate political instability, contributing to a further decline in the market price for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fell out amid diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Despite rumors of a rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, the Kremlin downplayed the speculation, indicating potential internal power dynamics.
Growing dissent among Russian generals calls for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov publicly called for Putin to resign or be removed, reflecting internal military dissent over the Ukraine war, which contributed to a market price drop reflecting increased uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Viral video shows Putin's swollen and sore hands, sparking health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
A viral video showing Putin's visibly swollen and sore hands reignited global speculation about his health, fueling market doubts about his ability to remain president, contributing to a price drop from 18% to 14% probability.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark renewed health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
New video footage showed Vladimir Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands with bulging veins, fueling renewed global speculation about his health and ability to govern. Despite Kremlin denials, this intensified uncertainty about Putin's future but did not trigger immediate market resolution.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov absent from key Kremlin meetings amid speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's long-serving foreign minister, was notably absent from a key Kremlin Security Council meeting and excluded from Russia's G20 delegation, sparking rumors of a fallout with Putin. The Kremlin denied these rumors, but the event highlighted possible internal political instability, affecting market perceptions of Putin's tenure.
Russian forces continue offensive near Pokrovsk amid economic pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%3%
Despite economic challenges and sanctions, Putin's forces pressed advances near Pokrovsk, showing his continued command and no signs of political instability, which contributed to a decline in market probability of his removal.
Putin acknowledges economic impact of sanctions and plans defense budget cuts
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Putin implicitly recognized sanctions' effects on Russia's economy and announced a reduction in defense spending for 2026, reflecting internal pressures but no immediate threat to his presidency, contributing to a gradual market decline.
Putin signs law allowing year-round conscription, expanding military mobilization
Following the November 4 signing, the Russian government implemented the new conscription law, enabling continuous military recruitment and reinforcing Putin's active leadership role. This diminished market expectations for his near-term departure.
Retired General Leonid Ivashov Calls for Putin Resignation Over Ukraine War
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%2%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly called for Putin to resign or be forced out by constitutional procedures, signaling growing military dissent about the Ukraine war.
Putin blames Lavrov for angering Trump administration
Putin reportedly blamed foreign minister Sergei Lavrov for angering the Trump administration during a phone call, leading to Lavrov being sent into 'disgrace' by Putin. This diplomatic fallout increased speculation about internal Kremlin tensions.
Putin shows signs of health issues with swollen, sore hand sparking global speculation
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Videos and images surfaced showing Vladimir Putin's right hand swollen with bulging veins, fueling renewed speculation about his health and raising doubts about his ability to continue in office. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the perceived chance of his remaining president.
Putin orders proposals on possible nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin instructed ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling a hardline stance amid escalating tensions. This assertiveness likely reinforced perceptions of his continued grip on power, reducing chances of near-term resignation.
Putin orders preparations for possible nuclear weapons tests amid escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Putin's directive to prepare for nuclear weapons tests signaled a hardening stance and an attempt to project strength amid international pressure, reinforcing his control and reducing market expectations of his imminent removal, causing a price decline.
Putin Instructs Agencies to Prepare for Potential Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Following US statements on nuclear testing, Putin ordered Russian ministries and intelligence services to submit proposals for preparing nuclear tests, signaling a strong military posture.
Putin Orders Officials to Prepare for Possible Resumption of Nuclear Testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
In response to statements from US President Donald Trump, Putin instructed Russian ministries and intelligence agencies to submit proposals for preparing nuclear weapons tests, reinforcing his grip on state security.
Putin orders proposals on resuming nuclear tests in response to US actions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On November 5, Putin instructed Russian ministries to prepare proposals for resuming nuclear weapons tests, a direct response to US nuclear testing plans. This assertive stance indicated Putin's firm grip on power and strategic decision-making, reducing market speculation about his removal.
Putin orders proposals on preparing for nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed various ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons tests, emphasizing Russia's military strength and signaling no intention to relinquish power amid international pressure. This assertive posture likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
Putin orders proposals on nuclear weapons testing amid US resumption
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed Russian ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons tests following US President Trump's announcement to resume testing. This escalation indicated Putin's intent to maintain a strong leadership posture, dampening market expectations of his removal.
Putin orders proposals for possible nuclear weapons tests
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, escalating tensions and reinforcing his image as a resolute leader, which likely stabilized market doubts about his immediate removal.
Putin orders proposals for nuclear weapons test preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare for possible nuclear weapons tests, signaling continued assertiveness and control, which likely contributed to a further decline in market odds for his early exit.
Putin signs law allowing military reservists to guard oil refineries amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
On November 5, 2025, Putin signed legislation to deploy reservists for protecting critical infrastructure following Ukrainian drone strikes causing fuel shortages. This move indicated Putin's active governance and control, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin signs law moving Russia to year-round military conscription
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
On November 4, 2025, Putin signed a law allowing year-round conscription to bolster military manpower amid the Ukraine war, signaling his continued control and commitment to the conflict. This move reinforced perceptions that Putin was maintaining power rather than stepping down, contributing to a slight market decline in the probability of his removal by end 2026.
Growing Kremlin elite dissatisfaction could lead to Putin ousting
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Reports emerged of 'extremely unhappy' Kremlin elites frustrated by Putin's refusal to accept peace proposals and the impact of sanctions. Analysts suggested this internal dissent might eventually lead to efforts to remove Putin, though not immediately, reflecting increased political instability.
Putin praises capabilities of new Russian nuclear-capable missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin's November 4 statement on the Burevestnik missile's capabilities reaffirmed his control and military posture, signaling no signs of political instability or resignation, which kept market probabilities for his removal low.
Putin orders roadmap for rare earths extraction to boost strategic resources
Putin directed the Russian cabinet to develop plans for rare earth mineral extraction by December 1, 2025, signaling continued consolidation of economic and strategic control, which reinforced perceptions of regime stability and reduced chances of his imminent departure.
Putin praises developers of advanced missile systems at awards ceremony
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin highlighted the historic significance of new missile systems, emphasizing Russia's military strength and signaling regime resilience, which likely reduced market speculation about his imminent departure.
Putin awards developers of Burevestnik and Poseidon missile systems
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin publicly recognized missile developers, emphasizing nuclear capabilities as a strategic priority amid growing international tensions.
Putin highlights nuclear weapons development at awards ceremony
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
On November 4, 2025, Putin praised the development of advanced nuclear weapons systems, signaling Russia's military strength and his control over strategic assets. This bolstered perceptions of his continued leadership and reduced market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin praises nuclear missile developers, signals military strength
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On November 4, 2025, Putin publicly emphasized the historic significance of Russia's nuclear missile systems, reinforcing his image as a strong leader and reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin orders proposals for nuclear weapons test preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On November 5, Putin instructed ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling a hardline stance amid international tensions. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's continued control, contributing to a decline in the market's expectation of his removal.
Putin praises new Russian nuclear weapons capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
On November 4, 2025, Putin publicly praised Russia's successful testing of advanced nuclear-capable missiles, reinforcing his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military power. This likely further diminished market expectations of his removal by the end of 2026.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers voiced opposition to Putin's Ukraine strategy, calling for his resignation or removal. This increased market attention on the possibility of Putin leaving office, temporarily supporting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Ukraine reports heavy Russian troop deployment and ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Ukraine reported large Russian troop deployments and continued fighting, underscoring the ongoing war's strain on Putin's regime but no indication of his removal or resignation emerged.
US cancels Trump-Putin summit amid hardline Ukraine stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
The US cancelled a planned summit with Putin due to Russia's firm demands on Ukraine, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions but no indication of Putin's removal. This maintained the status quo, with no positive signal for Putin's exit, influencing the market's December 31, 2026 outcome price downward.
Putin boasts successful test of nuclear-powered missile amid war stalemate
On October 30, Putin publicly praised the successful test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered missile, reinforcing his image of strength and deterring opposition, which contributed to a stable market outlook on his presidency continuing through 2026.
Ukraine Increases Drone Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries, Causing Fuel Shortages
Ukraine's intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries led to fuel shortages and economic strain in Russia, exacerbating challenges for Putin's administration. Despite these pressures, no direct indication of Putin's removal emerged, reflected in stable market pricing.
Putin highlights nuclear-powered missile tests amid Ukraine conflict escalation
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
On October 30, 2025, Putin publicly emphasized Russia's development of nuclear-powered weapons during intense fighting in eastern Ukraine, signaling a hardline stance and military escalation. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's continued grip on power, contributing to a temporary price increase in the market.
American intelligence reports Putin remains firmly in power amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
US intelligence assessments confirmed Putin's continued leadership and no indication of resignation or removal, which stabilized market expectations despite ongoing conflict and internal pressures.
Putin emphasizes determination to win Ukraine war and touts new nuclear weapons
Putin's public statements about battlefield victory and new nuclear capabilities underscored his resolve to maintain power and continue the conflict, dampening market expectations of his resignation or removal.
Putin holds government meeting via videoconference amid ongoing military operations
On October 29, Vladimir Putin conducted a government meeting via videoconference, reaffirming his active role in governance and military strategy, signaling no indication of stepping down or removal. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued presidency, contributing to price stability.
Putin Announces Successful Test of Tsunami-Making Poseidon Nuclear Weapon
Putin announced the successful test of the nuclear-powered underwater drone Poseidon, projecting military strength and deterrence amid geopolitical tensions.
Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov show contradictory positions on Ukraine war negotiations
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Conflicting statements from Putin and Lavrov about potential understandings with US President Trump on ending the Ukraine war created uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's political stability, leading to market volatility and a peak in perceived removal probability.
Putin visits military hospital amid ongoing war and political pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Putin’s visit to a military hospital underscored his continued active role despite health rumors and political challenges, maintaining some market skepticism about an imminent exit but keeping the possibility open.
US intelligence reports Putin more committed than ever to Ukraine war victory
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
On October 29, US intelligence assessments concluded that Putin remains fully committed to achieving a battlefield victory in Ukraine, showing no willingness to compromise or step down. This reinforced market expectations of his continued presidency through at least 2026.
Putin reports successful tests of Poseidon nuclear underwater vehicle
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Putin publicly highlighted military strength by reporting successful tests of a powerful nuclear weapon, reinforcing his control and reducing immediate fears of his removal. This stabilized the market price after prior increases.
Putin Boasts of Successful Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo Test
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Putin announced the successful test of the Poseidon nuclear-propelled underwater drone, continuing aggressive nuclear saber-rattling to project authority and deter Western pressure.
Putin touts new nuclear missile tests amid ongoing war and no sign of resignation
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
On October 29, Putin announced tests of nuclear-powered weapons, reinforcing his commitment to military strength despite internal and external crises, with no indication of stepping down, maintaining market uncertainty.
Kremlin denies cancellation of Putin-Trump summit
The Kremlin's statement rejecting rumors of a canceled meeting with U.S. President Trump indicated Putin's ongoing active role in international diplomacy, supporting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin showcases new nuclear missile amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
By publicly displaying a new nuclear-powered missile and conducting nuclear drills, Putin signaled his resolve to maintain power and Russia's military stance, likely reinforcing market perceptions of his continued presidency.
Putin Proposes Surrender Amid Growing Crisis
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
Reports emerged that Vladimir Putin proposed surrender, signaling a major shift in Russia's stance and increasing speculation about his potential removal or resignation. This news caused a notable uptick in market pricing for Putin leaving office by the end of 2026.
Putin showcases new nuclear-powered missile amid Ukraine conflict
On October 26, 2025, Putin publicly displayed a new nuclear-powered missile, signaling defiance and strength amid ongoing conflict and Western pressure, which temporarily bolstered confidence in his hold on power.
Putin proposes surrender amid mounting crises
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
On October 26, 2025, reports emerged that Putin proposed surrender, signaling a critical moment of vulnerability and fueling speculation about his potential resignation or removal before the end of 2026.
Putin proposes surrender amid military and political pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Reports emerged that Putin proposed surrender, reflecting internal pressures and challenges in the ongoing conflict. This news briefly increased market uncertainty about Putin's presidency, causing a price spike before a subsequent decline.
Putin’s investment envoy continues talks with US officials amid sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On October 26, Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev engaged in talks with US representatives despite recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, signaling Putin’s intent to maintain international economic ties and political control, which tempered market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin vows overwhelming response to foreign pressure amid sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Following US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Putin declared Russia would never bow to foreign pressure and threatened an overwhelming response to military strikes, signaling regime stability and reducing market expectations of his imminent removal.
Putin reportedly proposes surrender amid escalating pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%4%
Reports emerged that Putin proposed surrender, a significant development that briefly increased market speculation about his potential early exit, though no official resignation followed, causing only a temporary price rise.
Putin proposes surrender in Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%2%
Putin reportedly suggested willingness to surrender parts of occupied southern Ukraine, signaling potential concessions in the ongoing war. This indicated political pressure but did not imply imminent resignation, causing limited market impact on Putin's presidency outlook.
Public anti-war protests in Putin’s hometown signal growing dissent
Hundreds in St. Petersburg publicly sang a forbidden anti-war song, a rare act of defiance that highlighted increasing domestic opposition to Putin’s policies, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Kremlin elites reportedly 'extremely unhappy' amid sanctions and war pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports emerged of growing resentment among Russia's power brokers due to harsh sanctions and war hardships, suggesting potential internal challenges to Putin's rule. However, no immediate ousting occurred, and the market showed minor fluctuations.
Putin appears unsteady and sways during speech, fueling health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin was observed continuously swaying during a public appearance, reigniting widespread rumors about his health, including possible neurological conditions. This increased uncertainty about his ability to continue in office but did not lead to immediate market resolution.
Defense.info October 2025 Report: Putin Faces Most Consequential Crisis
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A Defense.info report described Putin facing his most serious crisis as of October 2025, with Russian forces in Ukraine stuck in a brutal war of attrition they could not win, contributing to market pessimism about Putin's leadership.
Dmitry Kozak, Putin’s longtime chief of staff, abruptly resigns
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a close confidant of Vladimir Putin since 1999, resigned unexpectedly with no new appointment, signaling cracks within Putin’s inner circle and increasing market speculation about Putin’s political stability.
Putin’s inner circle thins as longtime chief of staff Dmitry Kozak resigns
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
Dmitry Kozak, a key Putin confidant since 1999, abruptly resigned in late October 2025, signaling cracks within Putin’s inner circle and increasing speculation about regime stability. This event contributed to a temporary price increase reflecting higher perceived risk to Putin’s presidency.
Putin appears unsteady in public appearance amid health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Putin's unusual swaying and unsteady behavior during a press event fueled renewed health concerns, increasing speculation about his capacity to govern but no official confirmation of incapacity or resignation.
Putin vows Russia will not cave under US sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
On October 23, 2025, Putin publicly rejected US and Western sanctions as ineffective and warned of an overwhelming response to any military strikes, signaling his intent to maintain power and resist external pressures. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to a price decline in the likelihood of his early exit.
Putin restructures Presidential Administration, elevates Sergei Kiriyenko
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Putin relieved Dmitry Kozak and expanded Sergei Kiriyenko's responsibilities, signaling a strategic shift in governance and consolidation of power. This administrative change reflected internal regime adjustments amid ongoing crises, influencing market perceptions of Putin's stability.
Putin reshuffles Kremlin administration, elevates Sergei Kiriyenko's role
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%1%
Putin relieved Dmitry Kozak and expanded Sergei Kiriyenko's responsibilities, signaling internal power shifts that may affect regime stability and succession dynamics, influencing market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Putin directs Russian nuclear forces drills as summit with Trump is on hold
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
On October 22, Putin oversaw strategic nuclear forces drills, signaling readiness and command continuity amid stalled talks with the U.S. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's active leadership and diminished expectations of his imminent exit.
Trump imposes harsh sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies
President Donald Trump imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil corporations, signaling increased economic pressure on Putin's regime. This move was seen as a significant escalation in efforts to push Putin to end the war in Ukraine, contributing to internal Kremlin dissatisfaction.
Putin oversees Russian nuclear forces readiness test
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
On October 22, 2025, Putin directed drills of Russia's strategic nuclear forces, demonstrating his continued control over the military and state affairs. This event reinforced perceptions of his stable grip on power, contributing to the market's steady pricing on his presidency lasting beyond 2026.
US President Trump meets NATO Secretary General amid stalled Russia talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On October 22, 2025, US President Donald Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no breakthrough in resolving the Ukraine conflict or Putin's position. This contributed to a slight market decline as no signs emerged of Putin stepping down.
Putin oversees nuclear forces exercise amid war tensions
On October 22, 2025, Putin inspected a military exercise of Russia's nuclear forces, signaling continued control and authority. This display of power amidst ongoing conflict reassured markets of his maintained presidency.
Trump cancels planned Putin summit, imposes sanctions on Russian oil firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned summit with Vladimir Putin citing lack of progress in peace talks and announced new sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil companies. This indicated deteriorating diplomatic relations and reduced expectations for a near-term political transition in Russia, causing a slight market price decline for Putin's exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin Directs Major Strategic Nuclear Forces Exercise Amid Collapsed US Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin personally oversaw a massive strategic nuclear triad exercise involving land, sea, and air components, projecting military strength and control after a planned summit with US President Donald Trump fell apart.
Russian government resigns amid proposed constitutional changes
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
The resignation of the Russian government and Putin's proposal to amend the constitution suggested a reshuffling of power but reinforced Putin's intent to maintain control, impacting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin oversees large-scale nuclear forces readiness test amid rising tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
On October 22, 2025, Putin directed a major test of Russia's nuclear forces, signaling his continued control and resolve amid geopolitical tensions. This demonstration of military strength reinforced perceptions of Putin's firm grip on power, reducing market expectations of his early departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin oversees strategic nuclear forces readiness test
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Putin directed drills of Russia's nuclear forces, demonstrating his active leadership and control over the country's strategic military assets, which likely reassured the market about his continued presidency.
Putin personally oversees launch of nuclear war games
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%5%
On October 22, Putin personally oversaw the launch of nuclear war games, demonstrating continued control over military affairs and signaling no immediate intention to relinquish power. This reinforced market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Poland warns Putin could be arrested if flying through its airspace
Poland's foreign minister stated he could not guarantee that Putin's plane would not be forced to land and the president detained under an ICC warrant if he flew through Polish airspace en route to a meeting. This heightened international legal pressure on Putin but did not directly affect his presidency status.
White House cancels planned Trump-Putin meeting amid stalled Ukraine peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
On October 21, 2025, the White House announced that President Trump would not meet Putin soon, after Russian officials showed no intention to end the Ukraine war. This diminished hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, slightly reducing market optimism about Putin’s political future.
Heightened geopolitical tensions as Putin and Trump prepare for summit amid nuclear saber-rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
On October 21, 2025, media discussed a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, alongside Putin's public emphasis on new nuclear weapons capabilities, increasing geopolitical tensions. This raised market speculation about Putin's political stability, temporarily boosting the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Russia Conducts Successful Test of Burevestnik Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Russia successfully tested its pioneering atomic-powered cruise missile, signaling military strength and defiance against Western pressure, which reinforced Putin's domestic stability.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects ceasefire without Ukrainian concessions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 21, 2025, Putin and Kremlin officials stated Russia would not agree to a ceasefire until Ukraine met demands including neutrality and government change, signaling no political retreat or leadership change. This stance likely maintained market skepticism about Putin's imminent exit.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
The Russian government resigned, and President Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power dynamics, potentially allowing him to retain influence post-presidency. This event initially raised speculation about Putin's future but did not signal his immediate removal, causing a slight market price decrease for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin rejects off-ramp amid worsening economic and military conditions
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%2%
In October 2025, analyses highlighted Putin's rejection of potential exit strategies despite Russia's economic spiral and military depletion, signaling a likely continuation of his presidency and contributing to a temporary price increase in the market.
Russian government resigns after Putin proposes reforms weakening successor
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
Following Putin's proposal of constitutional reforms to weaken his successor, the entire Russian government resigned, signaling political maneuvering to maintain Putin's control. This event caused a temporary increase in market uncertainty about Putin's future but did not indicate imminent departure.
White House postpones Trump-Putin summit indefinitely amid Ukraine ceasefire disagreements
On October 21, 2025, the US postponed a planned summit with Putin after Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov contradicted ceasefire understandings, signaling diplomatic tensions but no immediate impact on Putin's presidency. This maintained market skepticism about Putin's imminent removal.
Putin reiterates no ceasefire until Ukraine meets Russia's demands
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
On October 21, 2025, Putin and Kremlin officials publicly stated that Russia would not agree to a ceasefire until Ukraine and the West met Russia's demands, signaling a continuation of the conflict and reducing expectations of Putin stepping down soon. This hardened stance likely contributed to market skepticism about Putin's early removal.
Putin faces most consequential crisis of presidency as Ukraine war drags on
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
A Defense.info report detailed how the Ukraine war had become a military, economic, and strategic quagmire for Putin, marking the most precarious moment of his presidency.
U.S. imposes sweeping sanctions on Russian oil companies and financial sector
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
On October 21, 2025, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies and restricted trading in Russian securities, intensifying economic pressure on Putin's regime and increasing market doubts about his presidency lasting through 2026.
Putin reiterates hardline demands on Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
On October 21, Putin publicly demanded Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast and suggested willingness to surrender parts of southern Ukraine, signaling no intention to step down and reinforcing his firm stance, which maintained market skepticism about his removal by end-2026.
Russian Government Resigns, Signaling Political Reshuffle
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
The Russian government resigned, and Putin announced plans to replace the prime minister, indicating a managed transition of power and raising questions about Putin's future role. This event contributed to increased market speculation about Putin's presidency ending before late 2026.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional changes hinting at regime transition
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
The resignation of the Russian government and proposed constitutional reforms suggested a shift in power structures, signaling a possible transition phase in Putin's regime and raising market speculation about his future.
Reports of Trump supporting ceasefire with Ukraine, not Putin’s territorial demands
On October 20, 2025, reports emerged that US President Trump supported a ceasefire on current frontlines rather than Putin’s demand for Ukraine to cede territory, indicating ongoing conflict but no immediate threat to Putin’s presidency. This maintained market skepticism about Putin’s imminent removal.
Putin reiterates hardline stance on Ukraine territorial demands
Putin publicly demanded Ukraine cede Donetsk Oblast and suggested willingness to surrender parts of southern Ukraine, signaling continued commitment to his presidency and war strategy, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent removal.
Putin’s regime begins transition with delegation of routine management
In 2024-2025, Putin started delegating routine management while retaining strategic control, with Alexei Dyumin acting as a de facto vice-president. This indicated a regime transition but not a departure from the presidency, tempering market expectations for an imminent exit.
Putin reiterates demand for Ukraine to cede Donetsk Oblast
Putin publicly demanded Ukraine cede Donetsk Oblast as a condition for peace, signaling his continued commitment to the war effort and territorial ambitions, which reinforced his grip on power and reduced speculation about his imminent departure.
Putin demands Ukraine cede Donetsk Oblast, hints at territorial concessions
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%3%
Putin reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war and suggested willingness to surrender parts of southern Ukraine. This hardened stance likely reduced market expectations of Putin stepping down soon, as he remained actively engaged in high-stakes negotiations.
Putin plans meeting with Trump in Hungary amid ICC arrest warrant concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%1%
Putin's planned meeting with Donald Trump in Budapest raised questions about his ability to travel freely due to the ICC arrest warrant and EU sanctions. Despite these legal challenges and Poland's warning about possible arrest if Putin's plane enters its airspace, the event underscored Putin's continued active role, supporting market stability.
Trump meets Zelensky; no immediate plans for Putin summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
US President Trump's meeting with Ukraine's Zelensky and the absence of a planned summit with Putin signaled ongoing geopolitical tensions without direct engagement, maintaining Putin's position and lowering chances of his removal.
Growing signs of dissent and anti-war protests in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
Videos of Russians in St. Petersburg singing forbidden anti-war songs and increasing dissent among elites highlighted cracks in Putin's support, raising questions about regime stability but no immediate change in presidency.
Putin Plays to Trump’s Ego as U.S. Wavers on Ukraine Aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Following a phone call with Putin, U.S. President Trump expressed doubts about supplying Ukraine with more powerful weapons, indicating potential shifts in international pressure on Putin. This diplomatic development slightly influenced market perceptions but did not suggest imminent regime change.
Hundreds in St. Petersburg publicly sing anti-war song, signaling dissent
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
A rare public act of defiance in Putin's hometown indicated growing internal dissent and potential weakening of his regime, influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Putin's ability to travel to Hungary questioned amid sanctions and ICC warrant
EU sanctions and the ICC arrest warrant cast doubt on Putin's ability to travel to Budapest to meet Donald Trump, highlighting international legal and diplomatic constraints but no direct impact on his presidency.
Analysis highlights Putin facing most consequential crisis of presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%3%
Reports emphasized the severe military and economic challenges confronting Putin, increasing speculation about his political future but without concrete signs of resignation or removal, contributing to slight market volatility.
FSB charges 22 exiled Russian opposition figures including Khodorkovsky
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 16, 2025, the FSB charged prominent exiled opposition figures, signaling Putin's regime continuing to suppress dissent. This reinforced perceptions of regime stability despite internal pressures, slightly dampening expectations of Putin's imminent departure.
Trump announces plan for second summit with Putin to end Ukraine war
US President Trump declared intentions for another meeting with Putin aiming to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's ongoing leadership and influence, reducing market odds of his departure.
Growing public dissent in Putin's hometown with anti-war protests
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
A viral video showed hundreds in St. Petersburg publicly singing a forbidden anti-war song, signaling rising internal dissent and potential instability within Putin's regime, which slightly increased market concern about his tenure.
FSB charges 22 opposition figures including Khodorkovsky amid succession fears
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
The FSB charged prominent opposition figures, signaling Putin's tightening grip and raising questions about succession as Putin approaches advanced age. This heightened market uncertainty about Putin's political future, contributing to price fluctuations.
Hundreds in Putin's hometown publicly sing anti-war song in rare defiance
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
A viral video of public dissent in St. Petersburg signaled growing domestic unrest, briefly raising market concerns about Putin's hold on power.
Discussion of Putin's succession intensifies amid health and political concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
Reports highlighted ongoing debates about who might succeed Putin, with no clear successor groomed, fueling uncertainty about the regime's future. This contributed to a slight increase in market pricing for Putin leaving office by late 2026.
Growing fears about Putin's health and succession intensify
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Speculation about Putin's health, possibly Parkinson's disease, and discussions about potential successors increased, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky highlights Putin's age and succession fears amid political repression
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 16, opposition leader Khodorkovsky discussed the inevitability of Putin's departure due to age and historical precedent, while noting ongoing repression of dissent, which added to market speculation about Putin's future and potential exit timeline.
Growing fears about Putin's health amid speculation of degenerative illness
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Speculation intensified that Putin suffers from a degenerative illness such as Parkinson's, with experts and former intelligence officials commenting on his declining health, which raised doubts about his long-term presidency.
Putin signals continued control amid economic and military pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Amid worsening economic conditions and military strain, Putin rejected potential off-ramps in 2025, signaling a likely continuation of his presidency despite growing challenges. This reinforced market skepticism about his imminent departure, causing a price increase in the likelihood of him leaving to peak around this date.
Putin faces most consequential crisis of his presidency amid war and economic strain
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%4%
Reports highlighted Putin's precarious position due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and economic difficulties, increasing market speculation about his potential exit.
Putin cancels Russia-Arab summit, signaling waning Middle East influence
Putin was forced to cancel a key summit due to low attendance, highlighting Russia's declining international standing amid the Ukraine war. This event contributed to perceptions of weakening Putin authority, slightly pressuring the market.
PACE votes to create dialogue platform with exiled Putin opponents; Russia opens criminal probe
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe initiated a platform for dialogue with exiled opponents of Putin, prompting Russia's FSB to open a criminal investigation accusing dissidents of plotting to seize power. This heightened political tensions but did not indicate imminent leadership change, causing a moderate market uptick.
Growing war fatigue and calls for peace talks in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Surveys indicated a record 66% of Russians favored peace talks, reflecting increasing war fatigue. However, Putin faced a crisis but showed no signs of stepping down, maintaining his position despite internal pressures, which kept market probabilities low.
Putin meets Syrian interim president amid questions on Kremlin's foreign setbacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin's meeting with Syria's interim president highlighted ongoing foreign policy challenges and Kremlin's strained position, contributing to perceptions of a regime under pressure but not yet destabilized.
Economic hardship fuels social discontent amid Putin's presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
Rising inflation and economic struggles have alienated Putin's core electorate, intensifying social dissatisfaction and contributing to perceptions of a precarious presidency, which influenced market sentiment.
Anti-war song sung publicly in Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
Hundreds of Russians in St. Petersburg publicly sang a forbidden anti-war song, signaling growing dissent and unrest within Putin's base of support. This rare act of defiance contributed to increased market speculation about Putin's political stability.
Putin proposes constitutional changes to retain power beyond 2024
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%4%
Putin's annual address included proposals to amend the constitution to limit presidential power but create a new political structure allowing him to remain central to power after 2024, dampening prospects of his leaving the presidency soon.
Putin meets with Syria's President amid Kremlin opposition crackdown
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 15, Putin held a meeting with Syria's President while Russia intensified actions against exiled opposition figures. This demonstrated Putin's continued exercise of presidential duties and control over domestic politics, countering narratives of imminent removal.
Putin faces unprecedented crises amid ongoing Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%2%
In mid-October 2025, Putin confronted a confluence of military stalemate, economic hardship, and political risks, marking the most consequential crisis of his presidency. This heightened uncertainty likely contributed to early market volatility.
Experts discuss Putin's unmanageable leadership and longevity
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Analysts and experts highlighted Putin's long tenure and unyielding leadership style, emphasizing the challenges in predicting his departure. This reinforced market skepticism about an imminent exit.
Anti-war protests and dissent grow in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%3%
A viral video showed hundreds in St. Petersburg singing a forbidden anti-war song, highlighting growing dissent and weakening regime stability, which contributed to increased market speculation about Putin’s potential removal.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
The Russian government resigned, and Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling a potential post-presidential role for Putin and reducing chances of his immediate departure.
Russian opposition figures charged by FSB amid crackdown
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
The FSB charged 22 exiled politicians and activists opposing Putin, signaling increased repression and consolidating Putin's grip on power, which likely maintained market skepticism about his imminent removal.
Retired Russian General Calls for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov publicly urged Vladimir Putin to resign or be removed constitutionally, citing the unsustainable Ukraine war and internal weaknesses. This statement heightened market concerns about Putin's presidency stability, contributing to a price increase.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov states Russia ready for peaceful settlement but continues war
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
Peskov's statement on October 14 reiterated Russia's commitment to war aims despite readiness for peace, reflecting ongoing military stalemate and political pressure on Putin's leadership, which influenced market perceptions of his presidency's stability.
Russia escalates drone incursions into European airspace
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Since early September, Russia sent dozens of drones into European airspace, prompting NATO to invoke Article 4 and heightening tensions. This aggressive posture was seen as Putin's attempt to project strength, temporarily increasing market uncertainty about his political future.
Opposition leader Khodorkovsky highlights Putin succession fears
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Mikhail Khodorkovsky discussed the lack of a clear successor to Putin and the risks associated with his advancing age, fueling speculation about potential regime change. This commentary contributed to market doubts about Putin's long-term hold on power but did not signal imminent resignation.
Rising public dissent in Putin’s hometown with anti-war protests
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Hundreds of Russians in St. Petersburg publicly sang a forbidden anti-war song, a rare act of defiance that highlighted growing public dissatisfaction and regime brittleness, contributing to increased market expectations of Putin’s potential exit.
Kremlin considers replacing governors ahead of 2026 Duma elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
On October 13, sources close to the Kremlin indicated plans to replace select federal subject governors to boost public sentiment before the 2026 elections, signaling political maneuvering but no direct threat to Putin's presidency. This suggested regime stability despite internal challenges.
Kremlin considers replacing federal governors ahead of 2026 elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Reports indicated the Kremlin was planning to replace some regional governors to boost political support before the 2026 Duma elections, signaling internal political maneuvering but no direct threat to Putin's presidency.
Hundreds in St. Petersburg publicly sing anti-war song calling for Putin's removal
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%2%
A viral video showed hundreds of Russians in Putin's hometown singing a forbidden anti-war song, signaling growing public dissent and potential elite dissatisfaction, which increased market speculation about Putin's political future.
Russia expert highlights Putin's growing desperation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
On October 13, 2025, expert Nigel Gould-Davies noted Putin's increasingly aggressive tactics as signs of desperation amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, raising market speculation about Putin's political stability and potential exit by late 2026.
Russian authorities open criminal case against exiled oligarch Khodorkovsky and dissidents
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
The Kremlin's crackdown on opposition figures signals increased political repression but no indication of Putin's removal. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Putin signs decree to subsidize oil refineries amid gasoline shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Putin's decree to support oil refineries reflects ongoing economic strain but no political instability threatening his presidency. The market price rose slightly as this showed Putin's active governance despite challenges.
Putin faces unprecedented crises amid war and economic downturn
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%4%
In October 2025, Putin confronted a severe crisis with Russia trapped in a costly war and economic contraction, which initially raised market uncertainty about his presidency's stability, reflected in a price peak at 22%.
Trump Warns of Supplying Long-Range Tomahawk Missiles to Ukraine if War Is Not Settled
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump stated he might supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles if the conflict is not resolved, briefly raising geopolitical tensions and causing a minor upward fluctuation in the market.
Putin announces upcoming introduction of new weapons amid military tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin's announcement of new strategic weapons and military footage release reinforced his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military capabilities, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Retired Russian General Publicly Calls for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly demanded that Vladimir Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This rare open dissent from a high-ranking military figure increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, causing a price rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin holds media Q&A in Dushanbe, projecting stability
Putin engaged with media in Tajikistan, discussing bilateral relations and Russia's regional role, signaling no immediate political instability or leadership change. Market prices remained steady around 18%.
Putin holds press conference in Dushanbe, affirming leadership role
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin held a press conference on October 10, 2025, in Dushanbe, discussing bilateral relations and regional cooperation. His public engagement and absence of resignation signals maintained market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin claims Russia-US understanding on peaceful Ukraine resolution but stresses complexity
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
On October 10, Putin stated that Russia and the US have an understanding on resolving the Ukraine war peacefully but emphasized the complexity and time needed, signaling no immediate political upheaval affecting his presidency. This maintained market stability with a slight price dip reflecting cautious optimism.
Putin answers media questions after Tajikistan visit
Putin's public engagement with the media following his trip to Tajikistan reinforced his active role as president, maintaining his visibility and authority amid ongoing crises.
Tajikistan hosts Putin despite ICC arrest warrant
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin attended a Russia-Central Asia summit in Tajikistan despite an active ICC arrest warrant, with Human Rights Watch and the ICC coalition criticizing Tajikistan for not arresting him. This event highlighted international legal challenges but did not affect Putin's presidency directly, causing minor market fluctuations.
Putin visits Tajikistan despite ICC arrest warrant
On October 9, 2025, Vladimir Putin traveled to Tajikistan for a Russia-Central Asia summit despite an active International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Tajikistan, a Rome Statute member, failed to arrest him, drawing international criticism but not affecting Putin's presidential status, thus having limited impact on the market.
Putin attends Russia-Central Asia summit in Tajikistan despite ICC arrest warrant
On October 9, 2025, Vladimir Putin traveled to Tajikistan for a regional summit despite an outstanding International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Tajikistan's failure to arrest him highlighted the limits of international legal pressure but did not affect Putin's hold on power, keeping market prices steady.
Putin makes rare public appearance at Tajikistan summit amid health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Putin's limited public engagements raised health concerns, fueling speculation about his ability to continue as president, which briefly increased market uncertainty.
Putin attends summit in Tajikistan amid health speculation
On October 8, Vladimir Putin made his first visible public appearance in weeks by attending a summit in Tajikistan, which reignited international speculation about his health due to his prior limited public engagements. This event maintained market uncertainty but did not indicate any imminent change in his presidency.
Putin makes first public appearance in weeks at Tajikistan summit
After weeks of limited public visibility, Putin attended a summit in Tajikistan, temporarily easing health-related rumors and stabilizing market sentiment. This event showed Putin was still active, which likely prevented a drop in the market's probability of his early departure.
Putin turns 73, raising questions about his political future
Putin's 73rd birthday highlighted concerns about his longevity in power, as age and health are significant factors in Russian leadership transitions. This event contributed to market speculation but did not immediately affect his presidency status.
Putin’s 73rd birthday sparks renewed health rumors amid Kremlin denials
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
On his 73rd birthday, rumors about Putin's ill health, including cancer, resurfaced despite Kremlin denials. This fueled market speculation about his ability to remain in office, slightly increasing the perceived likelihood of his departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin celebrates 73rd birthday amid health speculation
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
On his 73rd birthday, Putin was publicly active but health rumors, including cancer and Parkinson's disease, circulated widely, fueling speculation about his ability to continue in office. This contributed to market uncertainty but no official change occurred.
Putin turns 73, chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing leadership
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin's 73rd birthday was marked by his active role chairing a Security Council meeting and receiving international tributes, signaling his continued leadership and control, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin spends 73rd birthday working, signaling no immediate plans to step down
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
On his 73rd birthday, Putin was reported to be actively working and engaging with foreign leaders, indicating continued leadership and no signs of resignation. This event likely contributed to a slight market decline in the probability of his leaving office by December 31, 2026.
Putin announces Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2025
Putin's statement about territorial gains in Ukraine demonstrated his ongoing command and control over military operations, reinforcing perceptions of his stable hold on power and contributing to market confidence in his presidency lasting through 2026.
Vladimir Putin celebrates 73rd birthday amid health rumors
On his 73rd birthday, Putin was publicly active but faced renewed rumors about his health, including cancer and Parkinson's disease, which fueled speculation about his ability to continue in office. The Kremlin denied these rumors, but concerns contributed to market uncertainty.
Putin Spends Subdued 73rd Birthday at Work
Putin marked his 73rd birthday by continuing official duties and engaging with foreign leaders, demonstrating ongoing active leadership and no signs of stepping down, which maintained market skepticism about his near-term departure.
Putin turns 73, continues active presidential duties
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
On October 7, 2025, Putin celebrated his 73rd birthday while continuing to chair Security Council meetings and engage in official duties, signaling no intention to step down and maintaining market confidence in his presidency.
Putin marks 73rd birthday continuing presidential duties
On his 73rd birthday, Vladimir Putin was reported to be actively working and engaging with foreign leaders, signaling his ongoing commitment to his presidential role and stability in leadership.
Putin claims Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine this year
Putin announced on October 7 that Russian forces had captured significant territory in Ukraine in 2025, asserting continued strategic initiative. This statement suggested Putin's active leadership and control, reducing speculation about his stepping down.
Putin highlights historic significance of new nuclear missile systems
On November 4, 2025, Putin praised the development of nuclear-powered cruise missiles as historically significant for Russia, signaling his continued leadership and resolve amid ongoing conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his strong grip on power, contributing to market stability.
Putin warns US Tomahawk missile supply to Ukraine would destroy relations
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin warned that supplying long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would escalate tensions and damage Russia-US relations, signaling his continued active leadership in foreign policy and military matters, supporting market confidence in his presidency.
Putin Announces Constitutional Changes for Future Referendum
Putin announced proposed constitutional changes to be placed before the people in a future referendum, which may have been a response to governance challenges and internal dissent.
Putin rejects 'tsar' label, asserts elected presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%1%
Putin publicly stated he is not a tsar but an elected president serving a term, emphasizing the legitimacy and continuity of his presidency. This statement countered narratives of autocratic rule and reassured markets of his stable hold on power, contributing to price stability.
Putin asserts he is not a tsar, emphasizing elected presidency
Putin publicly stated he is an elected president serving a fixed term, rejecting autocratic labels. This reinforced perceptions of his intent to remain in office, stabilizing market expectations about his tenure.
Putin denies being a tsar, reaffirms presidential role
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
At a conference, Putin emphasized his role as an elected president with a fixed term, rejecting autocratic labels. This statement reinforced his intent to maintain power within constitutional limits, stabilizing market expectations.
Putin Declares He Is No Tsar and Was Elected by the Russian People
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin rejected the 'tsar' label, emphasizing his constitutional mandate and electoral support, reinforcing his political legitimacy.
Putin states he is not a tsar but an elected president with a fixed term
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
At the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin emphasized he was elected by the people for a certain term and denied being an autocrat or tsar, signaling his intent to remain in office and countering narratives of imminent removal. This likely supported market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin publicly denies being a tsar, affirms elected presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
At the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin emphasized he is an elected president serving a term, rejecting autocratic labels. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, stabilizing the market probability around 18-19%.
Putin Swipes Back at Trump, Asserts Control Over Occupied Regions
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
On October 2, 2025, Putin publicly asserted control over key Ukrainian regions and responded to U.S. President Trump’s statements, signaling his continued grip on power. This likely contributed to a temporary increase in market confidence in Putin's presidency lasting beyond 2026.
Putin Rejects 'Tsar' Label at Valdai Conference, Emphasizes Elected Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
During the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi, Putin rejected comparisons to historical emperors, asserting his status as an elected president serving a defined term, which reinforced his political narrative.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers voiced opposition to Putin's Ukraine war strategy, calling for his resignation or removal, which increased market speculation about Putin's potential exit.
Growing military dissent calls for Putin’s resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov publicly called for Putin to resign or be removed due to the unsustainable Ukraine war, signaling increasing elite military opposition and raising market concerns about Putin’s tenure.
Putin orders highest fall conscription target in 9 years
On September 29, Putin ordered the conscription of 135,000 men, the largest in nine years, signaling continued military commitment amid the Ukraine conflict. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's ongoing control and resolve, limiting expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin thanks voters for participation in September elections
On September 26, 2025, Vladimir Putin publicly thanked voters for their participation in regional elections, signaling his continued active role in Russian politics and consolidating his political support. This event reinforced market confidence in Putin's ongoing presidency, contributing to stable or slightly higher prices before a subsequent decline.
Putin ally Dmitry Kozak resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime close collaborator of Putin who had privately opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his deputy chief of staff role. This event suggested possible cracks within Putin's inner circle, briefly increasing market speculation about Putin's potential removal.
Meduza reports on fall of 'Putin's point man' Dmitry Kozak
Dmitry Kozak, the only senior Russian official believed to have opposed the war against Ukraine, resigned as Deputy Chief of Staff. His departure was relatively mild and did not indicate any threat to Putin's presidency.
Putin commits to adhering to nuclear arms limits for one more year
Putin's announcement to abide by the New START treaty for an additional year suggested a desire for stability and continuity in international relations, reducing speculation about abrupt political upheaval.
Putin Announces Russia Will Adhere to New START Nuclear Limits for One More Year
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily stick to the strategic nuclear warhead limits of the New START treaty for an additional year after its expiration in February 2026, signaling a calculated diplomatic posture.
Russian General Alexander Lapin Dismissed From Military Service
Putin formalized Lapin's dismissal, a move that may reflect broader military leadership changes and further signals instability within the Russian military establishment.
Putin Declares Russia Will Adhere to Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin announced that Russia will continue to abide by the New START treaty limits for a year after its February 2026 expiration, projecting stability and long-term strategic planning.
Putin Commits to Extending Russia's Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin announced Russia would stick to nuclear arms limits for another year, signaling a continued strategic posture and stability in his leadership approach, which likely reassured markets about regime continuity.
Putin Announces Russia Will Stick to Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Putin declared Russia would maintain the New START nuclear arms treaty for another year, signaling a desire for stability amid ongoing conflict. This statement reinforced Putin's control and strategic positioning, slightly reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin orders stepped-up attacks on Ukraine, confident Trump won’t intervene
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin decided to escalate military operations in Ukraine, believing US President Trump would not significantly support Kyiv. This military escalation indicated Putin's continued hold on power and strategic control, dampening market speculation about his removal.
Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
Dmitry Kozak, a long-serving aide to President Putin who was critical of the invasion of Ukraine, resigned from his post. This departure removed a potential internal dissenting voice, further consolidating Putin's control.
Putin Orders Succession Plan Sourcing Next Leaders from Ukraine War Veterans
President Putin announced that the next generation of Russia's political leadership must be veterans of the Ukraine war, entrenching hard-line nationalism and securing a loyal future political class.
Putin orders succession plan emphasizing veterans of Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin stated that the next generation of Russian leadership must be veterans of the Ukraine war, signaling a managed transition but no immediate exit, which maintained market skepticism about his near-term departure.
Putin Removes Kozak, Deputy Head of Presidential Administration
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime aide to Putin who reportedly opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his position. This was one of the few known internal dissenters in Putin's circle, signaling potential instability within the Kremlin leadership.
Kremlin confirms resignation of Putin's deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak
Dmitry Kozak, a long-time aide to Vladimir Putin who reportedly believed the Ukraine invasion was a mistake, resigned amid growing internal dissent within the Russian government. This event reflected potential cracks in Putin's leadership but did not result in Putin's removal.
Putin's Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak Resigns Amid War Opposition
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a long-time close associate of Putin who reportedly opposed the Ukraine war, resigned on September 18, 2025. This event suggested internal Kremlin dissent and raised questions about Putin's political stability, briefly increasing market speculation about potential leadership changes affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin Aide Dmitri Kozak Resigns Over Ukraine War Opposition
Kozak, a long-serving aide who believed the Ukraine invasion was a mistake, resigned, signaling growing dissent within Putin's inner circle and raising concerns about potential instability in the Kremlin.
Putin Ally Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime close associate of Putin who had privately opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his deputy chief of staff position. This event introduced some uncertainty about Putin's inner circle stability, briefly impacting market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Longtime Putin aide Dmitry Kozak resigns amid inner circle dissent
Dmitry Kozak, a senior and trusted aide known for opposing the Ukraine war, resigned, signaling rare cracks within Putin's close administration. This event raised speculation about internal instability but did not directly indicate Putin's imminent departure, causing a modest market impact on the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Kremlin confirms resignation of Dmitry Kozak, Putin aide critical of Ukraine war
Dmitri N. Kozak, a long-serving aide to Vladimir Putin who had expressed opposition to the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his position. This was one of the few known dissenting voices within Putin's inner circle, potentially signaling internal tensions but not affecting Putin's presidency.
Longtime Putin aide Dmitri N. Kozak resigns after opposing Ukraine war
Kozak, a trusted aide who privately believed the Ukraine invasion was a mistake, resigned his post, signaling growing internal dissent within Putin's inner circle about the war strategy.
Dmitry Kozak, Putin's deputy chief of staff, resigns
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a senior Kremlin official and one of the few known to oppose the Ukraine war, resigned from his post. This event signaled some internal dissent but did not directly imply any change in Putin's presidency, causing only minor market fluctuations.
Putin publicly muses on immortality and succession challenges
Putin's comments on prolonging life and the lack of a hand-picked successor highlighted the regime's succession dilemma, increasing market uncertainty about his potential departure timing.
Putin Ally Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime Putin confidant, resigned amid reports of losing favor due to opposing the Ukraine war, signaling a shift towards hardliners in the Kremlin and increasing political uncertainty about Putin's inner circle stability.
Putin delivers message to Ukraine, Europe and Trump amid intensified airstrikes
Putin reaffirmed Russia's aggressive stance in Ukraine, demonstrating continued commitment to the war effort despite mounting criticism and potential internal dissent.
Putin signals determination to dictate Ukraine war terms amid military escalation
Putin held a lengthy news conference emphasizing Russia's military upper hand and escalated airstrikes in Ukraine, reinforcing his intent to continue the conflict on his terms. This assertive stance reduced market expectations of his imminent removal, as he appeared firmly in control.
Putin Offers Conditional Peace Talks but Warns of Force in Ukraine
On September 3, 2025, Putin publicly stated a preference for ending the Ukraine war through negotiations but warned he was prepared to end it by force if necessary. This reinforced his commitment to maintaining power and control, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin emphasizes continued Russia-China cooperation ahead of SCO summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin's statements on strengthening ties with China and attending major international summits underscored his stable hold on power and strategic focus, further diminishing market expectations of his exit within the timeframe.
German Chancellor Merz says Putin-Zelenskyy summit unlikely
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Germany's Friedrich Merz publicly stated that a direct summit between Putin and Zelenskyy would not happen, casting doubt on peace negotiations and indicating Putin's continued hold on power and control over the conflict's direction.
Experts affirm Putin's position remains secure despite coup rumors
Analyses reiterated that a coup to overthrow Putin is highly unlikely due to his regime's strong control and loyal security forces, maintaining low market expectations for his departure within the timeframe.
Analysis confirms Putin's position remains secure despite war and sanctions
Experts and reports concluded that Putin's regime is 'coup-proofed' and his removal unlikely, which aligns with the market's low probability pricing for his removal by end of 2026.
Experts affirm coup against Putin remains highly unlikely
Analyses reiterated that despite speculation, Putin's regime is 'coup-proofed' with loyal security forces and centralized control, making his removal unlikely and supporting market confidence in his presidency through 2026.
Analysis suggests Putin's removal only possible via coup, which remains unlikely
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
An expert analysis published on August 26, 2025, concluded that the only plausible way for Putin to leave office is through a coup, which is highly unlikely due to his regime's strong internal controls. This assessment likely contributed to the market's declining probability for Putin's early exit.
Trump Considers Legislative Pressure to Force Putin Back to Negotiations
Reports emerged that Trump had a bill ready to pressure Putin to return to peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate change in Putin’s status. This maintained market skepticism about Putin’s removal within the timeframe.
White House confirms plans underway for Putin-Zelensky meeting following Trump talks
On August 19, the White House announced that plans for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy were underway, indicating diplomatic progress but no indication of Putin's removal. Market prices remained low around 18-19%, reflecting continued skepticism about Putin's early exit.
White House announces plans for Putin-Zelensky meeting underway
Plans for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky were announced, indicating diplomatic engagement but no sign of Putin stepping down. This maintained the market's low probability of Putin's removal by the end of 2026.
Plans for Putin-Zelensky meeting announced but remain uncertain
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Following the Alaska summit, US officials announced plans for a potential meeting between Putin and Zelensky, though details were vague and Moscow expressed caution. This tentative diplomatic move did not significantly alter market expectations for Putin's tenure.
Putin's leg twitching at Trump summit fuels health rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Video footage showed Putin's legs twitching during the Alaska summit, sparking renewed speculation about his health, including possible neurological conditions. Despite these rumors, no official confirmation or indication of imminent resignation emerged.
Trump Pivots on Need for Immediate Ukraine Ceasefire After Meeting Putin
Following his face-to-face talks with Putin, Trump reversed his stance, aligning with Russia's preference to bypass an immediate ceasefire in favor of direct, lengthy peace negotiations.
Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ends without ceasefire agreement in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On August 16, 2025, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska but left without reaching any ceasefire deal in Ukraine. The failure to agree maintained geopolitical tensions and underscored Putin's continued control over Russian policy, dampening market expectations for his early departure.
Analysis: Trump summit in Alaska grants Putin more time to continue Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The Alaska summit between Trump and Putin was widely seen as giving Putin additional time to sustain his war efforts, reducing market expectations of his near-term removal. This diplomatic event contributed to the market's continued decline in the probability of Putin leaving office by the end of 2026.
Trump urges Ukraine to make deal with Russia after Alaska summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Following the Alaska summit, Trump publicly urged Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, reflecting a shift in US policy that could embolden Putin. This contributed to a slight market increase in the perceived stability of Putin's presidency through 2026.
Outline of Putin's peace offer in Ukraine emerges after Alaska summit with Trump
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
On August 16, 2025, reports surfaced of Putin's peace proposals involving territorial concessions discussed with Trump, reflecting Putin's continued active role in negotiations and no indication of stepping down, which kept market probabilities low for his exit before end 2026.
Putin meets Trump in Alaska for high-stakes summit on Ukraine
Putin met with US President Donald Trump in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Despite hopes, no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, and Putin's position remained secure, leading to no increase in market probability of his removal.
Trump and Putin Hold Alaska Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The Alaska summit with Trump, which failed to achieve a ceasefire, created renewed uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Putin and Trump hold summit in Alaska without ceasefire deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 15, Putin met with US President Donald Trump in Alaska, concluding without a ceasefire agreement. The summit was seen as a diplomatic win for Putin, reinforcing his position and diminishing market expectations of his removal or resignation.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska for summit on Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The high-profile summit between Putin and Trump aimed at negotiating an end to the Ukraine war ended without a ceasefire deal, demonstrating Putin's continued hold on power and reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ends with no ceasefire deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The high-profile meeting between Trump and Putin failed to produce a ceasefire or any indication of Putin's willingness to relinquish power, reinforcing market expectations that Putin would remain president through 2026.
Trump and Putin hold summit in Alaska with no ceasefire deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On August 15, 2025, President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Despite a warm rapport, the talks ended without a ceasefire agreement, reinforcing Putin's position and contributing to market skepticism about any near-term change in his presidency.
Putin’s Health Concerns Raised After Limping During Meeting with Trump
Vladimir Putin was observed limping and showing signs of physical distress during a meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska, fueling speculation about his health. Despite these concerns, no official indication of resignation or removal emerged, and the market remained cautious.
Putin and Trump hold high-profile summit in Alaska amid health rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Putin met with US President Donald Trump in Alaska, a significant diplomatic event that drew attention to Putin's health due to visible leg twitching and limping. Despite speculation, Putin remained in power, and the summit did not lead to any concessions or indications of his imminent exit.
Putin-Trump summit in Alaska ends with no deal on Ukraine ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
The August 15 summit between Putin and Trump concluded without agreement on a ceasefire, underscoring Putin's determination to continue the war and maintain power. The market responded with no increase in probability of Putin leaving office early.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Concludes Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The highly anticipated bilateral summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended with no concrete agreement or ceasefire. However, the warm reception and red-carpet treatment of Putin on US soil was widely viewed as a major political and reputational victory for the Russian leader, reinforcing his stability.
Trump and Putin Meet in Alaska Without Reaching Ukraine Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit between Trump and Putin ended without a ceasefire or peace agreement on Ukraine, with Putin maintaining his position on territorial demands. The lack of breakthrough reinforced perceptions of Putin’s continued control, slightly lowering the market’s probability of his removal.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The highly anticipated summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended without a concrete ceasefire agreement, but the meeting's optics treated Putin as an equal, stabilizing his domestic standing.
Putin Deputy Chief of Staff Urges End to War Against Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Dmitry Kozak privately advised Putin to end the war in Ukraine, reflecting internal dissent and potential pressure on Putin's leadership, which contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's political future.
European leaders pressure Trump to involve Ukraine in Putin talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On August 10, 2025, European leaders urged US President Trump to include Ukraine in negotiations with Putin, highlighting ongoing diplomatic complexities and Putin's firm grip on the conflict's direction. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's sustained power and reduced market expectations for his imminent removal.
President Trump signals likely meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss Ukraine peace
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 7, 2025, President Trump announced plans to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, indicating diplomatic efforts but no direct threat to Putin's presidency. This maintained market skepticism about Putin's removal before late 2026.
Trump signals likely meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss Ukraine peace
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 7, President Trump indicated he would likely meet soon with Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss ending the war, suggesting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no immediate resolution. Market prices briefly rose to 21% but then declined again, reflecting uncertainty about Putin's status.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Alaska on August 15
On August 6, Trump announced a planned meeting with Putin in Alaska, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement rather than a move toward Putin's removal. This maintained market expectations that Putin would remain in power through the near term.
No change in Putin's position despite US sanctions and diplomatic pressure
Despite ongoing US sanctions and diplomatic efforts, Putin remained firmly in power with no announcements of resignation or removal, maintaining market skepticism about his departure within the timeframe.
Trump and Putin agree to meet amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
Reports on August 6 indicated an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, suggesting diplomatic engagement but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency, thus having minimal impact on market expectations for his removal.
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow for three-hour talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 6, 2025, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow for about three hours to discuss the Ukraine conflict and potential peace talks. This high-profile diplomatic engagement raised hopes for negotiations but did not signal any change in Putin's presidential status, leading to a slight market price increase before stabilizing.
Kremlin confirms upcoming Putin-Trump meeting amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 6, Kremlin officials announced an agreed meeting between Putin and Trump, raising hopes for diplomatic progress but no indication of Putin stepping down. This maintained the market's low probability for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Putin doubts potency of Trump's sanctions ultimatum
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On August 5, sources reported Putin was unlikely to yield to the U.S. sanctions ultimatum, reinforcing his resolve to continue the war and maintain power. This further reduced market expectations of his removal within the timeframe.
Putin doubts effectiveness of Trump's sanctions ultimatum
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
On August 5, sources reported Putin's skepticism about the potency of US sanctions threats, indicating his resolve to continue the war and maintain power, which contributed to market confidence in his staying in office.
Putin unlikely to yield to US sanctions ultimatum, aims to capture Ukrainian regions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 5, sources close to the Kremlin indicated Putin's determination to continue military objectives despite looming US sanctions, signaling no intention to resign or step down, which kept market probabilities for his exit low.
Putin dismisses Trump's ultimatum to end Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Sources indicated Putin prioritized continuing the war effort over yielding to Trump's sanctions ultimatum, signaling his intent to maintain power and pursue military objectives despite international pressure.
Putin signals no change in Russia's stance on Ukraine despite sanctions deadline
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
Putin stated that Moscow hopes for future peace talks but affirmed that the momentum of the war was in Russia's favor, indicating no intention to step down or change course. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president through 2026.
Putin signs laws expanding state control amid war prolongation
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On August 1, Putin signed amendments increasing fines for VPN use and expanding citizenship revocation powers, signaling a move towards a police state to manage anti-war sentiment. This reinforced Putin's grip on power and reduced market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin claims Russian army advancing along entire front line
On August 1, Putin publicly asserted Russian military advances across the front, projecting strength and control. This bolstered market confidence in his continued leadership and reduced expectations of his early departure.
Putin affirms unchanged conditions for Ukraine conflict resolution
Putin publicly stated that the conditions for resolving the Ukraine conflict remain unchanged and expressed readiness to wait for dialogue, reinforcing his continued leadership and control over Russia's policy direction.
Putin dismisses Trump's ceasefire ultimatum, continues offensive
Putin publicly rejected Trump's deadline for a ceasefire, emphasizing ongoing military advances in Ukraine. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's resolve to remain in power and continue the war, further lowering market odds of his exit.
Putin signals no change in stance on Ukraine despite US sanctions deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On August 1, 2025, Putin stated that Russia hoped for more peace talks but that the momentum of the war was in Russia's favor, signaling no shift in his position despite looming US sanctions. This reinforced market views that Putin's presidency was stable and unlikely to end soon.
Putin asserts Russian military advances despite looming US sanctions
Putin publicly stated that Russian forces were advancing on the entire front line in Ukraine, dismissing US threats of sanctions and showing no sign of stepping down, which maintained market skepticism about his removal.
Putin signs law criminalizing access to 'extremist' online content
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 31, Putin signed amendments introducing misdemeanor penalties for intentionally searching banned online materials, demonstrating continued tightening of control and no sign of political weakening, which likely lowered market chances of his removal.
Unverified Reports of Coup Planning Within Russia’s General Staff Emerge
Reports surfaced alleging that some officers in Russia's General Staff were considering a coup due to fears of repression if the Ukraine war ends unfavorably. These rumors increased uncertainty but lacked confirmation, limiting market impact.
President Trump issues ultimatum to Putin to end Ukraine war within 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
President Trump publicly demanded that Putin cease hostilities in Ukraine within a short deadline, increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia. However, Putin's response and continued military actions suggested no immediate change in leadership, leading to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Trump sets August 8 deadline for Putin to negotiate peace or face sanctions
On July 29, US President Trump announced a deadline for Putin to engage in peace talks or face secondary sanctions. Putin and Kremlin officials dismissed the threat, reinforcing Putin's resolve to continue the war and remain in power.
Trump shortens deadline for Putin to negotiate Ukraine peace to early August
On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new deadline of 10 to 12 days for Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, reducing the previous 50-day deadline. This increased pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate change in his status, with market prices steady around 20%.
Donald Trump shortens deadline for Putin to stop Ukraine war killings
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, US President Donald Trump gave Putin a 10-12 day deadline to halt killings in Ukraine, increasing international pressure on Putin. Despite this, Putin remained defiant, which maintained market skepticism about any imminent change in his presidency.
Trump Shortens Ukraine Ceasefire Ultimatum for Putin to 10-12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically shortened his previous 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to just 10 to 12 days, threatening severe secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Trump announces new peace deadline for Putin: 10-12 days to negotiate Ukraine ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Trump announced a new deadline for Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, reducing his previous 50-day deadline by 38 days. This intensified pressure on Putin and raised concerns about his ability to maintain control.
Trump shortens ultimatum for Putin to negotiate peace to 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a reduced deadline for Putin to agree to peace negotiations, reflecting increased international pressure on Putin. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, and the market price remained stable or slightly declined.
Trump Cuts 50-Day Deadline for Putin to Reach Ukraine Peace Deal in Half
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
President Donald Trump reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal on Ukraine from 50 days to less than two weeks, signaling increased pressure on Putin. This political pressure did not translate into expectations of Putin leaving office, reflected in stable market prices.
Trump Shortens Russia's Peace Deal Deadline to 10 to 12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
US President Donald Trump accelerated his ultimatum to Russia, shortening the deadline to agree to a ceasefire from 50 days to just 10 to 12 days under threat of severe tariffs. This escalation increased geopolitical tension but ultimately highlighted Putin's refusal to back down under Western pressure.
Putin attends funeral of Supreme Court Chief Justice Irina Podnosova
Putin's public attendance at the funeral of a top judicial figure on July 24 demonstrated his continued active role in state affairs, signaling no signs of stepping down or incapacitation, which supported market confidence in his presidency.
Expert analysis confirms coup against Putin remains highly unlikely
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Security experts reiterated that Putin's regime is heavily 'coup-proofed' with loyal security forces, making any forced removal improbable. This assessment dampened market speculation about an early exit, supporting the downward price trend for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Kremlin states Putin ready for Ukraine peace talks but prioritizes goals
On July 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced Putin's willingness to discuss peace in Ukraine while emphasizing Russia's main objectives. This reinforced Putin's control and strategic focus, reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Kremlin signals readiness for peace talks but insists on goals
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
On July 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin is ready to move toward peace but prioritizes achieving Russia's objectives. This maintained the status quo, with no indication of leadership change, slightly dampening hopes for early resolution.
Putin and Trump hold joint appearance discussing Ukraine ceasefire
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint appearance in Alaska discussing a ceasefire in Ukraine, but no agreement was reached. This diplomatic failure may have contributed to market volatility.
Russian Military Faces Heavy Casualties and Economic Strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Reports indicated that Russian forces suffered heavy casualties and the economy was under strain, with reluctance from Putin to mobilize reserves. This military and economic pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Putin’s political future but did not signal immediate removal.
Zelenskyy appoints Yulia Svyrydenko as new prime minister for war-weary Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister following Shmyhal's resignation. This leadership change in Ukraine may have affected market perceptions of stability and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Russian drone attack hits Kharkiv amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
A Russian drone attack on Kharkiv on July 16, 2025, underscored the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Putin maintaining military operations. This sustained conflict suggested Putin's continued grip on power, limiting market expectations of his imminent departure.
Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A Russian drone attack hit Kharkiv, damaging infrastructure and killing civilians. This military escalation increased instability and raised concerns about Putin's control over the war effort.
Putin unfazed by Trump's sanctions threats, vows to continue Ukraine offensive
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to continue the war in Ukraine despite threats of tougher sanctions from the US. This reinforced expectations that Putin would remain in power to pursue his military objectives, contributing to stable market pricing.
Putin vows to continue fighting in Ukraine despite sanctions threats
Putin declared his intention to keep fighting until Russia's goals are met, showing defiance against Western sanctions and diminishing expectations of his early removal. This stance contributed to a decline in market probability for Putin's exit.
Putin signals intent to continue fighting in Ukraine despite Western pressure
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin declared his intention to keep fighting until the West agrees to his terms, showing no sign of stepping down and reinforcing market confidence in his continued presidency.
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal resigns amid major government reshuffle
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tendered his resignation as part of a major government reshuffle, leading to a cabinet dissolution. This political change in Ukraine may have influenced market sentiment regarding the stability of the Ukraine-Russia relationship.
Putin vows to continue Ukraine war despite Western sanctions threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to keep fighting in Ukraine until his terms for peace are met, showing no sign of stepping down. This reinforced market sentiment that Putin would remain in power, stabilizing the price around 20-21%.
Trump grants Putin 50-day window to end Ukraine war before sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
President Trump publicly gave Putin a 50-day deadline to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening severe economic sanctions thereafter. This emboldened Putin to continue his military campaign, reducing market expectations for his early departure.
Putin signals no change in war stance despite Trump sanctions threat
Putin stated Russia's economy and military could withstand further Western sanctions and intended to continue fighting in Ukraine, signaling no intention to resign or change course, which dampened market optimism about his departure.
Ukraine's Prime Minister resigns amid government reshuffle
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal resigned on July 15, signaling political shifts in Ukraine but indirectly affecting perceptions of Putin's position by highlighting ongoing conflict dynamics. This event coincided with a slight market dip reflecting uncertainty but no direct impact on Putin's presidency.
Trump threatens severe tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine ceasefire in 50 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
US President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening very severe secondary tariffs starting at 100%. This increased international pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate change in his presidency, maintaining market skepticism.
Putin Announces Leadership Term Ends in 2030
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Vladimir Putin stated his leadership term would end in 2030, signaling potential resignation and affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Trump claims Putin wanted peace in Ukraine, a reversal of stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
President Trump stated that Putin had previously expressed interest in peace in Ukraine, a significant shift from his earlier criticism of Putin. This created uncertainty about Putin's intentions and stability.
Trump sharply criticizes Putin and resumes arms shipments to Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
President Trump publicly expressed frustration with Putin's peace gestures as meaningless and restarted arms shipments to Ukraine, signaling a tougher U.S. stance. This increased uncertainty about Putin's position but did not indicate imminent removal, slightly lowering market odds.
Russian Transport Minister Dies by Gunshot Hours After Dismissal by Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 25%2%
Roman Starovoit, Russian Transport Minister, died by suicide hours after being fired by Putin, raising speculation about Kremlin instability and potential pressure on Putin's administration. This event briefly increased market uncertainty about Putin's position but did not directly imply his removal.
Trump sharply criticizes Putin over Ukraine war
US President Donald Trump increased his criticism of Vladimir Putin following unsuccessful calls to end the war in Ukraine, signaling continued US pressure but no immediate political change in Russia. This maintained market skepticism about Putin's removal.
Roman Starovoit dismissed as Russian Transport Minister by Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
President Vladimir Putin dismissed Roman Starovoit as Minister of Transport, a decision confirmed by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. This event reflected internal government changes but did not indicate any threat to Putin's presidency, causing minor market impact.
Putin fires Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Putin dismissed Transport Minister Roman Starovoit unexpectedly, signaling possible internal government instability. This event briefly affected market sentiment but did not directly imply Putin's imminent departure.
US proposes sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
The US proposed a sanctions package under the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to broadly target Russia's energy sector and impose secondary sanctions. This increased pressure on Russia's economy but did not directly threaten Putin's presidency, contributing to a slight market dip.
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit dismissed and found dead
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Roman Starovoit was fired by Putin and shortly after was found dead from an apparent suicide, highlighting internal pressures within the Russian government but not indicating any direct threat to Putin's presidency. This event coincided with a market price drop from 23% to 18% for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russian President Putin appoints Andrei Nikitin as acting transport minister
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 7, 2025, Putin appointed Andrei Nikitin as acting transport minister, signaling continued consolidation of his government and control over key positions, which reinforced perceptions of regime stability and reduced chances of Putin leaving office soon.
Putin decides on resignation of Transport Minister Roman Starovoit
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
On July 7, Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the resignation of Roman Starovoit as Minister of Transport was a decision made by Vladimir Putin, indicating internal government reshuffling but no sign of Putin stepping down himself. This event had limited impact on the market's outlook for Putin's presidency.
Roman Starovoit found dead hours after dismissal
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Roman Starovoit was found dead in an apparent suicide shortly after being fired by Putin. This event raised concerns about instability within the Russian government but did not directly implicate Putin's position, resulting in a slight market decline.
Putin dismisses Transport Minister Roman Starovoit, who is later found dead
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
President Putin fired Roman Starovoit as Transport Minister, a decision confirmed by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Hours after dismissal, Starovoit was found dead in an apparent suicide, raising concerns about internal political pressures but no direct impact on Putin's presidency was indicated.
Roman Starovoit, Russian Transport Minister, found dead in Moscow region after being fired
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Starovoit, a high-ranking official reportedly caught in corruption, was found dead in his car after being fired from his post. His suicide marked the first such case in Putin's 25-year reign, raising concerns about elite instability and potential power changes within the Kremlin.
Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit found dead
Shortly after his dismissal, Roman Starovoit was found dead from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, raising concerns about political pressures within Putin's administration but not directly impacting Putin's position.
Detention of Russian elite figures signals Kremlin tightening control
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 7, two major Russian figures, Konstantin Strukov and Viktor Strigunov, were detained on corruption charges, indicating a crackdown within the elite. This suggested internal instability but no direct threat to Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Putin removes Roman Starovoit from Transport Minister post
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 7, 2025, Vladimir Putin dismissed Roman Starovoit from his position as Minister of Transport, signaling internal government reshuffles but not indicating any threat to Putin's presidency. This event had limited impact on the market's outlook for Putin's removal.
Russian transport minister dismissed by Putin found dead
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Roman Starovoit, dismissed by Putin earlier that day, was found dead from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound. This event highlighted internal turmoil but did not indicate any change in Putin's position, leading to a slight market reaction.
Putin confirms resignation of Transport Minister Roman Starovoit
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
On July 7, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the resignation of Roman Starovoit, Minister of Transport, was a decision by Vladimir Putin himself, indicating Putin's continued control over government personnel but no sign of his own resignation. This event had limited impact on the market's outlook for Putin's presidency.
Starovoyt Found Dead After Putin's Dismissal
Starovoyt died in apparent suicide hours after being fired, confirming the abrupt nature of the dismissal and adding to concerns about political instability within Russia.
Putin Fires Transport Minister Roman Starovoyt
Putin dismissed Starovoyt without stated reason, a move that raised questions about internal Kremlin dynamics and Putin's leadership stability, contributing to market uncertainty.
US Senators Propose Sanctions Targeting Russia’s Energy Sector
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal proposed the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to impose broad tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase economic pressure on Putin’s regime. This heightened economic pressure was expected to challenge Putin’s hold on power but did not immediately affect his presidency.
Putin attends pro-war 'Everything for Victory' forum amid recruitment push
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin event aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling his intent to continue the conflict and maintain power. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president, contributing to a price drop from 23% to 18% for his departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin attends 'Everything for Victory' forum to boost volunteer recruitment
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at increasing volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling his intent to continue the conflict in Ukraine and maintain his presidency. This reinforced market confidence that Putin would remain in power through the medium term.
Putin pushes for increased volunteer recruitment amid waning domestic support
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
On July 6, Putin attended the "Everything for Victory" forum to boost volunteer recruitment, signaling efforts to sustain military manpower despite declining public support for mobilization. This indicated Putin's intent to maintain his presidency and war efforts, contributing to a slight market price drop from 23% to 21% for his early exit.
Trump signals possible meeting with Putin amid Ukraine war talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Reports emerged that US President Donald Trump might meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss Ukraine peace efforts, raising some market speculation about political shifts but no direct indication of Putin leaving office.
Putin pushes volunteer recruitment amid waning domestic support
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling concerns about domestic support. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, as no signs of imminent resignation emerged.
Putin attends pro-Kremlin 'Everything for Victory' forum amid elite detentions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin forum promoting victory over Ukraine, coinciding with the Kremlin's crackdown on elites, including detentions of major business and security figures. This reinforced Putin's control but highlighted internal tensions, slightly affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin participates in BRICS summit via videolink from Moscow
Putin's active participation in the BRICS summit signaled his continued control and leadership, reinforcing market confidence in his presidency and contributing to the initial market price of 23%.
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