Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks

Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.

U.S. Energy Secretary says any Trump‑ordered tests would be non‑nuclear

Clarification that any U.S. tests would not involve nuclear explosions reduced the perceived trigger for a Russian nuclear test, contributing to the final drop to 4%‑5%.

Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%

Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.

Russia reiterates readiness to keep New START limits for another year

Putin’s reaffirmation that Russia would honor the treaty’s caps for an additional year if the U.S. does so removed a key catalyst for a test, pushing prices toward single‑digit levels.

Russia’s deputy security council head Medvedev warns of “proportional” response to U.S. missile defenses

Medvedev’s warning that Russia would act proportionately if the U.S. pursues new missile defenses was interpreted as a diplomatic threat rather than an imminent test, further lowering market odds.

Ukraine drone strike hits Russian oil facility in Tuapse

The attack raised concerns about Russia’s domestic stability and its need to conserve strategic assets, reducing the perceived incentive for a risky nuclear test.

U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.

U.S. President Trump signals intent to resume nuclear testing

Trump’s public remarks about restarting U.S. nuclear tests heightened the risk of reciprocal Russian testing, initially spiking the market before the subsequent diplomatic reassurance pulled prices down further.

Russian diplomat says Moscow will observe New START limits as long as the U.S. does

Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that Russia will stick to the treaty’s caps if the U.S. follows suit reassured markets that Moscow is not seeking to expand its arsenal through testing.

Russia commits to adhering to New START nuclear arms limits despite treaty expiration

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

On April 7, 2026, Russian officials stated that Russia would continue to observe the limits of the expired New START treaty as long as the United States did the same. This commitment reduced market fears of imminent Russian nuclear testing, contributing to a sharp decline in the market price for a test by September 30, 2026.

Russia says its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles have entered service in Belarus

Moscow announced the operational deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic system, a move seen as a deterrent rather than a prelude to testing, which helped push prices lower.

Russia conducts missile strikes including nuclear-capable missiles but no nuclear test

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine using nuclear-capable missiles, heightening fears of escalation. Despite the use of nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test detonation occurred, leading to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.

U.S. and Russia’s nuclear arms pact expires, raising fears of a new arms race

The New START treaty expired on Feb. 5, and analysts warned that the lack of limits could trigger a competitive buildup, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a Russian test.

Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.

Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles but no nuclear test reported

December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%

Russia announced the active service deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, increasing nuclear tensions. However, no nuclear test was conducted or reported, contributing to the market's reassessment and price drop for the December 31, 2026 outcome.

No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions

December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.

No credible reports of Russian nuclear test emerge amid heightened tensions

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Despite increased military activity and deployment of nuclear-capable missiles by Russia, no credible news or official confirmation of a nuclear test by Russia was reported during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a sharp decline in market prices for the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test by September 30, 2026.

Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict

September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%

On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.