Redistricting consolidated two longtime Democratic strongholds into Texas’s 18th Congressional District, forcing a May 26 runoff between incumbents Christian Menefee and Al Green after neither topped 50 percent in the March primary. Menefee, who secured the seat via special election last year, holds a commanding lead in recent University of Houston and Lake Research polls while outraising Green by roughly two-to-one in the latest quarter. The 38-year-old’s incumbency advantage in the district’s core areas and stronger recent fundraising have shaped trader consensus around his high probability of nomination. Green, the 78-year-old veteran, retains name recognition but trails on momentum and resources. Minor candidates remain negligible factors. Late developments such as shared emphasis on voting-rights legislation have not materially altered the positioning ahead of the runoff.