Bipartisan congressional resolutions and longstanding executive policy reaffirm United States support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its 1991 borders, establishing clear institutional resistance to formal recognition of Russian claims over occupied regions. Through May 2026, three rounds of US-brokered talks have stalled without agreement on territorial concessions, with Ukraine rejecting demands that would require ceding sovereignty and Congress signaling opposition to any implied acknowledgment of annexations. Although the Trump administration continues diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire, no policy shift toward official recognition has emerged, leaving traders with a 76 percent implied probability that such recognition will not occur before 2027 absent a major reversal in negotiations or legislation.