Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+17, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential and statewide contests that shape trader pricing for the November 2026 general election. Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination after the June primary was canceled, positioning the party with an established candidate in a seat long held by Republicans. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds from the district’s voter registration and turnout patterns. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, an unusually large national swing, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited signs of either scenario materializing before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$40,198 KL.
$40,198 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$40,198 KL.
$40,198 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$15,673 KL.
95%
Democratic Party
$24,525 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+17, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential and statewide contests that shape trader pricing for the November 2026 general election. Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination after the June primary was canceled, positioning the party with an established candidate in a seat long held by Republicans. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds from the district’s voter registration and turnout patterns. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, an unusually large national swing, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited signs of either scenario materializing before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$40,198Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+17, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential and statewide contests that shape trader pricing for the November 2026 general election. Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination after the June primary was canceled, positioning the party with an established candidate in a seat long held by Republicans. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds from the district’s voter registration and turnout patterns. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, an unusually large national swing, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited signs of either scenario materializing before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$40,198Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a Partisan Voter Index of R+17, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential and statewide contests that shape trader pricing for the November 2026 general election. Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination after the June primary was canceled, positioning the party with an established candidate in a seat long held by Republicans. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen faces structural headwinds from the district’s voter registration and turnout patterns. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, an unusually large national swing, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited signs of either scenario materializing before Election Day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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