The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August, despite three early tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal), has positioned Dolly as the market leader at 41% implied probability, with Edouard next at 24%. Persistent El Niño-driven wind shear has limited intensification of these short-lived systems, keeping activity well below the 1991–2020 average and aligning with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. Official NHC monitoring shows no active threats, while climatological peaks in September could favor the next named system reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold first. Forecasters note that any reduction in shear or warmer sea-surface temperatures could accelerate development, though model consensus currently supports continued suppression.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Dolly 41%
Edouard 24%
Fay 21%
Isaias 7.1%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
2%
Dolly
41%
Edouard
24%
Fay
16%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
7%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
3%
Leah
3%
Marco
5%
Nana
5%
Omar
5%
Paulette
5%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
4%
Wilfred
4%
Other
4%
Dolly 41%
Edouard 24%
Fay 21%
Isaias 7.1%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$1,667 KL.
2%
Dolly
$383 KL.
41%
Edouard
$1,073 KL.
24%
Fay
$514 KL.
16%
Gonzalo
$472 KL.
4%
Hanna
$98 KL.
5%
Isaias
$350 KL.
7%
Josephine
$55 KL.
5%
Kyle
$94 KL.
3%
Leah
$59 KL.
3%
Marco
$111 KL.
5%
Nana
$51 KL.
5%
Omar
$67 KL.
5%
Paulette
$71 KL.
5%
Rene
$63 KL.
5%
Sally
$131 KL.
3%
Teddy
$63 KL.
5%
Vicky
$90 KL.
4%
Wilfred
$118 KL.
4%
Other
$63 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August, despite three early tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal), has positioned Dolly as the market leader at 41% implied probability, with Edouard next at 24%. Persistent El Niño-driven wind shear has limited intensification of these short-lived systems, keeping activity well below the 1991–2020 average and aligning with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. Official NHC monitoring shows no active threats, while climatological peaks in September could favor the next named system reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold first. Forecasters note that any reduction in shear or warmer sea-surface temperatures could accelerate development, though model consensus currently supports continued suppression.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,595Ngày kết thúc
Dec 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August, despite three early tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal), has positioned Dolly as the market leader at 41% implied probability, with Edouard next at 24%. Persistent El Niño-driven wind shear has limited intensification of these short-lived systems, keeping activity well below the 1991–2020 average and aligning with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. Official NHC monitoring shows no active threats, while climatological peaks in September could favor the next named system reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold first. Forecasters note that any reduction in shear or warmer sea-surface temperatures could accelerate development, though model consensus currently supports continued suppression.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Khối lượng
$5,595Ngày kết thúc
Dec 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August, despite three early tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal), has positioned Dolly as the market leader at 41% implied probability, with Edouard next at 24%. Persistent El Niño-driven wind shear has limited intensification of these short-lived systems, keeping activity well below the 1991–2020 average and aligning with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. Official NHC monitoring shows no active threats, while climatological peaks in September could favor the next named system reaching the 74 mph hurricane threshold first. Forecasters note that any reduction in shear or warmer sea-surface temperatures could accelerate development, though model consensus currently supports continued suppression.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp