The slow start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only three named tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) through mid-August and zero hurricanes, positions the next names in the official list—Dolly, Edouard, and Fay—as frontrunners for the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, reflecting suppressed conditions that have delayed intensification and reduced overall activity compared with historical averages. Traders appear to weigh the potential for an early Dolly formation against later-season development from subsequent names, given typical August–September peak timing and the possibility of model shifts in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts and any new tropical cyclone formation will likely drive the next adjustments in these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Dolly 42%
Edouard 23%
Fay 22%
Isaias 6.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
2%
Dolly
42%
Edouard
23%
Fay
22%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
7%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
3%
Leah
3%
Marco
5%
Nana
5%
Omar
5%
Paulette
5%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
4%
Wilfred
4%
Other
4%
Dolly 42%
Edouard 23%
Fay 22%
Isaias 6.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$1,667 KL.
2%
Dolly
$383 KL.
42%
Edouard
$1,073 KL.
23%
Fay
$514 KL.
22%
Gonzalo
$472 KL.
4%
Hanna
$98 KL.
5%
Isaias
$350 KL.
7%
Josephine
$55 KL.
5%
Kyle
$94 KL.
3%
Leah
$59 KL.
3%
Marco
$111 KL.
5%
Nana
$51 KL.
5%
Omar
$67 KL.
5%
Paulette
$71 KL.
5%
Rene
$63 KL.
5%
Sally
$131 KL.
3%
Teddy
$63 KL.
5%
Vicky
$90 KL.
4%
Wilfred
$118 KL.
4%
Other
$63 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The slow start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only three named tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) through mid-August and zero hurricanes, positions the next names in the official list—Dolly, Edouard, and Fay—as frontrunners for the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, reflecting suppressed conditions that have delayed intensification and reduced overall activity compared with historical averages. Traders appear to weigh the potential for an early Dolly formation against later-season development from subsequent names, given typical August–September peak timing and the possibility of model shifts in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts and any new tropical cyclone formation will likely drive the next adjustments in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,595Ngày kết thúc
Dec 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The slow start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only three named tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) through mid-August and zero hurricanes, positions the next names in the official list—Dolly, Edouard, and Fay—as frontrunners for the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, reflecting suppressed conditions that have delayed intensification and reduced overall activity compared with historical averages. Traders appear to weigh the potential for an early Dolly formation against later-season development from subsequent names, given typical August–September peak timing and the possibility of model shifts in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts and any new tropical cyclone formation will likely drive the next adjustments in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Khối lượng
$5,595Ngày kết thúc
Dec 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The slow start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only three named tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) through mid-August and zero hurricanes, positions the next names in the official list—Dolly, Edouard, and Fay—as frontrunners for the first system to reach 74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA’s August update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, reflecting suppressed conditions that have delayed intensification and reduced overall activity compared with historical averages. Traders appear to weigh the potential for an early Dolly formation against later-season development from subsequent names, given typical August–September peak timing and the possibility of model shifts in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts and any new tropical cyclone formation will likely drive the next adjustments in these market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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