Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic (68%) to claim the second-best AI model by end-June 2026, as measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena-style leaderboards, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April release dominating LMArena Code Arena and agentic benchmarks like GDPval-AA, where it leads by wide margins over GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's biweekly update cadence since January has sustained momentum, closing the gap with OpenAI's GPT-5.x family, which holds overall #1 but shows slippage in coding and domain-specific arenas. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (18% odds) excels in reasoning (e.g., GPQA Diamond) but lacks fresh iterations since February. OpenAI (8.6%) faces low risk of dropping to #2 absent delays. Watch for June model drops or I/O announcements as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 68%
Google 18%
OpenAI 8.6%
xAI 2.8%
$396,614 KL.
$396,614 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
68%
18%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 18%
OpenAI 8.6%
xAI 2.8%
$396,614 KL.
$396,614 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$14,523 KL.
68%
$5,600 KL.
18%
OpenAI
$34,191 KL.
9%
xAI
$14,875 KL.
3%
DeepSeek
$248,793 KL.
2%
ByteDance
$3,889 KL.
1%
Meta
$4,161 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$6,104 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$4,149 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$4,906 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$4,382 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,271 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$4,820 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$34,070 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,892 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic (68%) to claim the second-best AI model by end-June 2026, as measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena-style leaderboards, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April release dominating LMArena Code Arena and agentic benchmarks like GDPval-AA, where it leads by wide margins over GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's biweekly update cadence since January has sustained momentum, closing the gap with OpenAI's GPT-5.x family, which holds overall #1 but shows slippage in coding and domain-specific arenas. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (18% odds) excels in reasoning (e.g., GPQA Diamond) but lacks fresh iterations since February. OpenAI (8.6%) faces low risk of dropping to #2 absent delays. Watch for June model drops or I/O announcements as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$396,614Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic (68%) to claim the second-best AI model by end-June 2026, as measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena-style leaderboards, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April release dominating LMArena Code Arena and agentic benchmarks like GDPval-AA, where it leads by wide margins over GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's biweekly update cadence since January has sustained momentum, closing the gap with OpenAI's GPT-5.x family, which holds overall #1 but shows slippage in coding and domain-specific arenas. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (18% odds) excels in reasoning (e.g., GPQA Diamond) but lacks fresh iterations since February. OpenAI (8.6%) faces low risk of dropping to #2 absent delays. Watch for June model drops or I/O announcements as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$396,614Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic (68%) to claim the second-best AI model by end-June 2026, as measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena-style leaderboards, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April release dominating LMArena Code Arena and agentic benchmarks like GDPval-AA, where it leads by wide margins over GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Anthropic's biweekly update cadence since January has sustained momentum, closing the gap with OpenAI's GPT-5.x family, which holds overall #1 but shows slippage in coding and domain-specific arenas. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (18% odds) excels in reasoning (e.g., GPQA Diamond) but lacks fresh iterations since February. OpenAI (8.6%) faces low risk of dropping to #2 absent delays. Watch for June model drops or I/O announcements as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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