Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNone in 2026 57%
Anthropic 31%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.0%
$51,329 KL.
$51,329 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
31%
13%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 31%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.0%
$51,329 KL.
$51,329 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$9,738 KL.
57%
Anthropic
$6,397 KL.
31%
$7,067 KL.
13%
OpenAI
$7,144 KL.
5%
xAI
$5,094 KL.
2%
Alibaba
$4,446 KL.
1%
Mistral
$3,371 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,490 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,582 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,329Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Khối lượng
$51,329Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism that any AI model will first reach a 1550 Elo rating on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with None implied at 57.5%, as top large language models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking hover around 1504 Elo as of early May— a 46-point gap amid signs of scaling plateaus and data constraints. Anthropic leads alternatives at 30.5% on its sustained dominance since late February's Claude 4.6 release, which claimed #1 across Arena categories including hard prompts and coding, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (11%) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants (5.9%). Recent entrants like xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491 Elo) show competitive pressure but no breakthroughs, with traders eyeing summer model drops from major labs as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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