The October 23, 2026 deadline for a Hormuz Agreement has passed without any confirmed diplomatic resolution or treaty announcement between the relevant parties, driving trader consensus toward the No outcome at 99.6 percent. This reflects verified absence of required milestones such as bilateral signings, Senate notifications, or public statements meeting standard agreement criteria by the cutoff. The low probabilities on conditional Senate control scenarios (0.3 percent Democratic, 0.1 percent Republican) align with the lack of triggering conditions. Late developments that could still affect resolution include disputes over effective dates, classified side agreements, or procedural challenges to market criteria, though no such verified factors have emerged.