Recent high-value auctions, including a $236 million Klimt in November 2025 and a $181 million Pollock in May 2026, demonstrate that the upper end of the market can clear $150 million when exceptional single-owner collections and blue-chip modern works surface. However, such sales remain infrequent, driven by scarce supply of museum-quality pieces with strong provenance rather than consistent demand. The art market's recovery in 2025–2026 has favored selective, high-end transactions over broad volume, with private sales gaining share and fewer marquee lots expected through year-end. Traders price the "No" outcome at 59% because fall 2026 auctions lack confirmed $150 million-plus consignments, and historical patterns show these records cluster around major collection dispersals rather than occurring annually. Upcoming November sales and any late-year announcements represent the main swing factors.