Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,584 KL.
$92,584 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$92,584 KL.
$92,584 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$92,584Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$92,584Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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