Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97% for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored in Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual flagship smartphone launches every September since 2007, undeterred even by pandemic-era supply disruptions. Recent supply chain reports from early May 2026 confirm preparations for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max debuts in fall 2026, alongside a potential foldable model, while rumors of a standard model delay to spring 2027 have failed to dent odds amid lack of official confirmation. This skin-in-the-game sentiment prioritizes Pro-tier releases as qualifying the lineup. Realistic risks include unforeseen chip shortages, geopolitical supply chain fractures, or a full strategic pivot—though none appear imminent ahead of WWDC in June.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$95,413 KL.
$95,413 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$95,413 KL.
$95,413 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97% for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored in Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual flagship smartphone launches every September since 2007, undeterred even by pandemic-era supply disruptions. Recent supply chain reports from early May 2026 confirm preparations for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max debuts in fall 2026, alongside a potential foldable model, while rumors of a standard model delay to spring 2027 have failed to dent odds amid lack of official confirmation. This skin-in-the-game sentiment prioritizes Pro-tier releases as qualifying the lineup. Realistic risks include unforeseen chip shortages, geopolitical supply chain fractures, or a full strategic pivot—though none appear imminent ahead of WWDC in June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$95,413Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97% for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored in Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual flagship smartphone launches every September since 2007, undeterred even by pandemic-era supply disruptions. Recent supply chain reports from early May 2026 confirm preparations for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max debuts in fall 2026, alongside a potential foldable model, while rumors of a standard model delay to spring 2027 have failed to dent odds amid lack of official confirmation. This skin-in-the-game sentiment prioritizes Pro-tier releases as qualifying the lineup. Realistic risks include unforeseen chip shortages, geopolitical supply chain fractures, or a full strategic pivot—though none appear imminent ahead of WWDC in June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$95,413Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97% for an iPhone 18 release in 2026, anchored in Apple's unbroken 19-year history of annual flagship smartphone launches every September since 2007, undeterred even by pandemic-era supply disruptions. Recent supply chain reports from early May 2026 confirm preparations for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max debuts in fall 2026, alongside a potential foldable model, while rumors of a standard model delay to spring 2027 have failed to dent odds amid lack of official confirmation. This skin-in-the-game sentiment prioritizes Pro-tier releases as qualifying the lineup. Realistic risks include unforeseen chip shortages, geopolitical supply chain fractures, or a full strategic pivot—though none appear imminent ahead of WWDC in June.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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