Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật99% khả năng
$173,240 KL.
$173,240 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
99% khả năng
$173,240 KL.
$173,240 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$173,240Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$173,240Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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