Iran has conducted multiple direct missile and drone strikes on Arab Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others since the US-Israel war began in February 2026, while Iran-backed Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi oil facilities, airports, and infrastructure in recent weeks. Diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Qatar in late October aim to de-escalate ahead of potential renewed US or Israeli action after November 3 midterms, amid Iranian warnings of expanded retaliation on energy sites, shipping routes, and bases if attacked again. These confirmed military actions and proxy operations establish the primary driver behind trader consensus on the market outcome, with any further strikes before resolution deadlines reinforcing the positioning.