Recent parliamentary calls by 130 Iranian lawmakers on September 15 for initiating NPT withdrawal proceedings, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA disputes, have not shifted the market. Iran's Supreme National Security Council and senior officials continue to frame exit as a possible but evaluated option requiring parliamentary approval, Guardian Council review, and three months' notice under Article X, with no such steps completed. Ongoing IAEA non-compliance reports and limited verification access reflect heightened tensions since early 2026 strikes, yet decision-makers appear to weigh diplomatic isolation and loss of treaty-based leverage against any short-term gains. Trader consensus at 86.7% for no withdrawal before 2027 aligns with this pattern of assertive rhetoric without decisive action.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
13% khả năng
$567,166 KL.
$567,166 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
13% khả năng
$567,166 KL.
$567,166 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent parliamentary calls by 130 Iranian lawmakers on September 15 for initiating NPT withdrawal proceedings, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA disputes, have not shifted the market. Iran's Supreme National Security Council and senior officials continue to frame exit as a possible but evaluated option requiring parliamentary approval, Guardian Council review, and three months' notice under Article X, with no such steps completed. Ongoing IAEA non-compliance reports and limited verification access reflect heightened tensions since early 2026 strikes, yet decision-makers appear to weigh diplomatic isolation and loss of treaty-based leverage against any short-term gains. Trader consensus at 86.7% for no withdrawal before 2027 aligns with this pattern of assertive rhetoric without decisive action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$567,166Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent parliamentary calls by 130 Iranian lawmakers on September 15 for initiating NPT withdrawal proceedings, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA disputes, have not shifted the market. Iran's Supreme National Security Council and senior officials continue to frame exit as a possible but evaluated option requiring parliamentary approval, Guardian Council review, and three months' notice under Article X, with no such steps completed. Ongoing IAEA non-compliance reports and limited verification access reflect heightened tensions since early 2026 strikes, yet decision-makers appear to weigh diplomatic isolation and loss of treaty-based leverage against any short-term gains. Trader consensus at 86.7% for no withdrawal before 2027 aligns with this pattern of assertive rhetoric without decisive action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$567,166Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent parliamentary calls by 130 Iranian lawmakers on September 15 for initiating NPT withdrawal proceedings, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA disputes, have not shifted the market. Iran's Supreme National Security Council and senior officials continue to frame exit as a possible but evaluated option requiring parliamentary approval, Guardian Council review, and three months' notice under Article X, with no such steps completed. Ongoing IAEA non-compliance reports and limited verification access reflect heightened tensions since early 2026 strikes, yet decision-makers appear to weigh diplomatic isolation and loss of treaty-based leverage against any short-term gains. Trader consensus at 86.7% for no withdrawal before 2027 aligns with this pattern of assertive rhetoric without decisive action.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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