The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and resulting Western sanctions regime remain the dominant drivers behind the 98.4% implied probability that Russia will not rejoin the G7 before 2027. G7 leaders have maintained unified exclusion since 2014, reinforced by coordinated diplomatic statements, energy restrictions, and support for Ukraine that show no sign of reversal. With less than 18 months until the cutoff, no bilateral thaw, territorial concessions, or leadership shifts have emerged to alter the consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a verified ceasefire agreement, major policy realignment among G7 members, or successful multilateral negotiations addressing security guarantees, though these remain low-probability outcomes given current trajectories.