Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, concentrates its $5.5 billion disclosed equity book on AI infrastructure bottlenecks such as power generation, optical networking, and cryptocurrency miners repurposed for compute. The Q4 2025 13F, filed in February 2026, reflected high turnover with exits from NVIDIA, Vistra, and Broadcom alongside new positions in Bloom Energy and specialized miners, aligning with the fund’s thesis that energy and data-center constraints will drive returns more than model developers themselves. Traders monitoring the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, focus on whether the fund adds exposure to names tied to these themes amid ongoing capital inflows and macro shifts in AI spending. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated bets on continued execution of this concentrated strategy rather than broad equity exposure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$121 KL.
May 15, 2026
Constellation Energy
12%
Eaton
8%
GE Vernova
12%
MARA Holdings
9%
Micron
50%
Oklo
7%
Qualcomm
50%
TeraWulf
7%
Vertiv
29%
Vistra Energy
12%
$121 KL.
Constellation Energy
$0 KL.
12%
Eaton
$0 KL.
8%
GE Vernova
$0 KL.
12%
MARA Holdings
$0 KL.
9%
Micron
$50 KL.
50%
Oklo
$0 KL.
7%
Qualcomm
$54 KL.
50%
TeraWulf
$0 KL.
7%
Vertiv
$10 KL.
29%
Vistra Energy
$7 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, concentrates its $5.5 billion disclosed equity book on AI infrastructure bottlenecks such as power generation, optical networking, and cryptocurrency miners repurposed for compute. The Q4 2025 13F, filed in February 2026, reflected high turnover with exits from NVIDIA, Vistra, and Broadcom alongside new positions in Bloom Energy and specialized miners, aligning with the fund’s thesis that energy and data-center constraints will drive returns more than model developers themselves. Traders monitoring the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, focus on whether the fund adds exposure to names tied to these themes amid ongoing capital inflows and macro shifts in AI spending. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated bets on continued execution of this concentrated strategy rather than broad equity exposure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$121Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, concentrates its $5.5 billion disclosed equity book on AI infrastructure bottlenecks such as power generation, optical networking, and cryptocurrency miners repurposed for compute. The Q4 2025 13F, filed in February 2026, reflected high turnover with exits from NVIDIA, Vistra, and Broadcom alongside new positions in Bloom Energy and specialized miners, aligning with the fund’s thesis that energy and data-center constraints will drive returns more than model developers themselves. Traders monitoring the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, focus on whether the fund adds exposure to names tied to these themes amid ongoing capital inflows and macro shifts in AI spending. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated bets on continued execution of this concentrated strategy rather than broad equity exposure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
Khối lượng
$121Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, concentrates its $5.5 billion disclosed equity book on AI infrastructure bottlenecks such as power generation, optical networking, and cryptocurrency miners repurposed for compute. The Q4 2025 13F, filed in February 2026, reflected high turnover with exits from NVIDIA, Vistra, and Broadcom alongside new positions in Bloom Energy and specialized miners, aligning with the fund’s thesis that energy and data-center constraints will drive returns more than model developers themselves. Traders monitoring the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, focus on whether the fund adds exposure to names tied to these themes amid ongoing capital inflows and macro shifts in AI spending. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated bets on continued execution of this concentrated strategy rather than broad equity exposure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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