Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because diplomatic engagement has replaced earlier rhetoric, with the United States and Denmark maintaining NATO alliance commitments that make military action against a fellow member strategically self-defeating. Explicit statements in January 2026 ruled out force, shifting focus to negotiations over expanded U.S. military cooperation, resource access, and Arctic security arrangements rather than territorial seizure. Structural barriers, including the need for congressional approval, Danish parliamentary consent, and Greenlandic self-government approval, further reduce feasibility. Late-year developments such as private-sector drilling disputes remain confined to regulatory warnings without escalation to conflict. Unlikely triggers that could still shift odds include unforeseen great-power crises in the Arctic or abrupt policy reversals, though current evidence shows no momentum toward those outcomes.