Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian military targets across Crimea in recent weeks, including Iskander systems, radars, and naval assets, yet these operations have produced no territorial gains on the peninsula. With only six weeks remaining until the June 30, 2026 resolution date and Russian defenses remaining entrenched since 2014, traders assign a 98.8 percent probability to “No.” The front lines elsewhere in Ukraine remain largely static amid ongoing attrition, and any overland or amphibious push into Crimea would require major breakthroughs in adjacent regions that have not materialized. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden large-scale escalation involving unrestricted Western long-range weapons or direct external military intervention, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow timeframe.