Recent congressional disputes over immigration enforcement funding and Department of Homeland Security appropriations have sustained risks of further funding lapses ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. A partial DHS shutdown that began in February ended on April 30 after a House vote restored funding for most agencies without resolving core policy disagreements. These tensions, alongside standard midterm dynamics where the president's party typically faces headwinds, align with current forecasting models and generic ballot polling that show Democrats holding an edge for House control. Traders have incorporated these factors into the implied probabilities, placing greater weight on outcomes pairing another shutdown with a Democratic majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$323,277 交易量
$323,277 交易量
2026-11-03
政府關閉與民主黨
78%
政府關門與共和黨
22%
$323,277 交易量
$323,277 交易量
2026-11-03
政府關閉與民主黨
$50,353 交易量
78%
政府關門與共和黨
$63,323 交易量
22%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Recent congressional disputes over immigration enforcement funding and Department of Homeland Security appropriations have sustained risks of further funding lapses ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. A partial DHS shutdown that began in February ended on April 30 after a House vote restored funding for most agencies without resolving core policy disagreements. These tensions, alongside standard midterm dynamics where the president's party typically faces headwinds, align with current forecasting models and generic ballot polling that show Democrats holding an edge for House control. Traders have incorporated these factors into the implied probabilities, placing greater weight on outcomes pairing another shutdown with a Democratic majority.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
市場開放時間： Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET
交易量
$323,277結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Recent congressional disputes over immigration enforcement funding and Department of Homeland Security appropriations have sustained risks of further funding lapses ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. A partial DHS shutdown that began in February ended on April 30 after a House vote restored funding for most agencies without resolving core policy disagreements. These tensions, alongside standard midterm dynamics where the president's party typically faces headwinds, align with current forecasting models and generic ballot polling that show Democrats holding an edge for House control. Traders have incorporated these factors into the implied probabilities, placing greater weight on outcomes pairing another shutdown with a Democratic majority.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$323,277結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent congressional disputes over immigration enforcement funding and Department of Homeland Security appropriations have sustained risks of further funding lapses ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections. A partial DHS shutdown that began in February ended on April 30 after a House vote restored funding for most agencies without resolving core policy disagreements. These tensions, alongside standard midterm dynamics where the president's party typically faces headwinds, align with current forecasting models and generic ballot polling that show Democrats holding an edge for House control. Traders have incorporated these factors into the implied probabilities, placing greater weight on outcomes pairing another shutdown with a Democratic majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions