Tucker Carlson’s implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination currently sits near 4 percent on major prediction markets, reflecting limited voter enthusiasm and his own repeated public statements ruling out a candidacy. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted November 6-9 showed only 13 percent of Republicans rating him an excellent or good potential nominee, with 28 percent saying they had never heard of him. Carlson has emphasized third-party or movement-building efforts alongside figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie following Republican midterm losses, while continuing to criticize aspects of the current administration’s foreign policy. With six weeks remaining before December 31, traders are assessing whether any short-term polling shifts, endorsements, or media developments could push his hourly odds above key thresholds like 5 or 6 percent before year-end.