Recent polls position Die Linke between 18% and 22% in the lead-up to the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Forsa and Infratest dimap surveys in August showing the party at or near 20% under Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp. Strong membership growth to roughly 18,300 has bolstered its organizational reach, while voter support has held steady despite a recent power outage linked to extremists. The current CDU-SPD coalition trails in most projections and lacks a majority path, opening space for left-leaning alliances that favor Linke consolidation. These trends underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 65% implied probability for exceeding 20%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於高於
65% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
高於
65% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls position Die Linke between 18% and 22% in the lead-up to the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Forsa and Infratest dimap surveys in August showing the party at or near 20% under Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp. Strong membership growth to roughly 18,300 has bolstered its organizational reach, while voter support has held steady despite a recent power outage linked to extremists. The current CDU-SPD coalition trails in most projections and lacks a majority path, opening space for left-leaning alliances that favor Linke consolidation. These trends underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 65% implied probability for exceeding 20%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
交易量
$2,526結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls position Die Linke between 18% and 22% in the lead-up to the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Forsa and Infratest dimap surveys in August showing the party at or near 20% under Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp. Strong membership growth to roughly 18,300 has bolstered its organizational reach, while voter support has held steady despite a recent power outage linked to extremists. The current CDU-SPD coalition trails in most projections and lacks a majority path, opening space for left-leaning alliances that favor Linke consolidation. These trends underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 65% implied probability for exceeding 20%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$2,526結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETRecent polls position Die Linke between 18% and 22% in the lead-up to the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Forsa and Infratest dimap surveys in August showing the party at or near 20% under Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp. Strong membership growth to roughly 18,300 has bolstered its organizational reach, while voter support has held steady despite a recent power outage linked to extremists. The current CDU-SPD coalition trails in most projections and lacks a majority path, opening space for left-leaning alliances that favor Linke consolidation. These trends underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 65% implied probability for exceeding 20%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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