Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and view forcible unification as high-risk amid logistical and alliance barriers. This underpins trader consensus on a low likelihood of a clash before 2027. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait, including air incursions and coast guard patrols, have remained at lower levels through April and early May 2026 without signs of amphibious buildup or blockade preparations. Diplomatic engagement, including the May Trump-Xi summit and Taiwan's approval of a $25 billion special defense budget, has reinforced deterrence while cross-strait tensions stay contained to grey-zone tactics. Potential shifts could stem from abrupt escalations or regional crises, though no such indicators have emerged.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,793,045 交易量
$1,793,045 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,793,045 交易量
$1,793,045 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and view forcible unification as high-risk amid logistical and alliance barriers. This underpins trader consensus on a low likelihood of a clash before 2027. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait, including air incursions and coast guard patrols, have remained at lower levels through April and early May 2026 without signs of amphibious buildup or blockade preparations. Diplomatic engagement, including the May Trump-Xi summit and Taiwan's approval of a $25 billion special defense budget, has reinforced deterrence while cross-strait tensions stay contained to grey-zone tactics. Potential shifts could stem from abrupt escalations or regional crises, though no such indicators have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,793,045結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and view forcible unification as high-risk amid logistical and alliance barriers. This underpins trader consensus on a low likelihood of a clash before 2027. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait, including air incursions and coast guard patrols, have remained at lower levels through April and early May 2026 without signs of amphibious buildup or blockade preparations. Diplomatic engagement, including the May Trump-Xi summit and Taiwan's approval of a $25 billion special defense budget, has reinforced deterrence while cross-strait tensions stay contained to grey-zone tactics. Potential shifts could stem from abrupt escalations or regional crises, though no such indicators have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,793,045結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and view forcible unification as high-risk amid logistical and alliance barriers. This underpins trader consensus on a low likelihood of a clash before 2027. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait, including air incursions and coast guard patrols, have remained at lower levels through April and early May 2026 without signs of amphibious buildup or blockade preparations. Diplomatic engagement, including the May Trump-Xi summit and Taiwan's approval of a $25 billion special defense budget, has reinforced deterrence while cross-strait tensions stay contained to grey-zone tactics. Potential shifts could stem from abrupt escalations or regional crises, though no such indicators have emerged.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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