Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40-64 100.0%
少於40條 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$672,559 交易量
$672,559 交易量
2026-08-15
少於40條
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
否
115-139
否
140-164
否
165-189
否
190-214
否
215-239
否
240+
否
40-64 100.0%
少於40條 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$672,559 交易量
$672,559 交易量
2026-08-15
少於40條
$67,314 交易量
否
40-64
$182,042 交易量
是
65-89
$131,438 交易量
否
90-114
$157,204 交易量
否
115-139
$67,368 交易量
否
140-164
$29,963 交易量
否
165-189
$22,072 交易量
否
190-214
$5,952 交易量
否
215-239
$4,949 交易量
否
240+
$4,257 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$672,559結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$672,559結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions