The Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16 to a 3.75-4% federal funds target range, the first tightening since 2023, reflects resilient U.S. growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated inflation now projected at 3.7% PCE for 2026 amid energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Updated FOMC projections signal potential further hikes this year and steady policy through 2027, with no indications of financial stress or recession risks that historically trigger unscheduled easing. This backdrop underpins the 96.1% market-implied odds against an emergency cut before 2027, as traders price in continued data-dependent tightening rather than crisis response. Tail risks include a severe escalation in conflicts disrupting energy supplies or an abrupt labor market collapse, though neither appears imminent based on recent indicators.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$222,745 交易量
$222,745 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$222,745 交易量
$222,745 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16 to a 3.75-4% federal funds target range, the first tightening since 2023, reflects resilient U.S. growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated inflation now projected at 3.7% PCE for 2026 amid energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Updated FOMC projections signal potential further hikes this year and steady policy through 2027, with no indications of financial stress or recession risks that historically trigger unscheduled easing. This backdrop underpins the 96.1% market-implied odds against an emergency cut before 2027, as traders price in continued data-dependent tightening rather than crisis response. Tail risks include a severe escalation in conflicts disrupting energy supplies or an abrupt labor market collapse, though neither appears imminent based on recent indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$222,745結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16 to a 3.75-4% federal funds target range, the first tightening since 2023, reflects resilient U.S. growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated inflation now projected at 3.7% PCE for 2026 amid energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Updated FOMC projections signal potential further hikes this year and steady policy through 2027, with no indications of financial stress or recession risks that historically trigger unscheduled easing. This backdrop underpins the 96.1% market-implied odds against an emergency cut before 2027, as traders price in continued data-dependent tightening rather than crisis response. Tail risks include a severe escalation in conflicts disrupting energy supplies or an abrupt labor market collapse, though neither appears imminent based on recent indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$222,745結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETThe Fed's unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16 to a 3.75-4% federal funds target range, the first tightening since 2023, reflects resilient U.S. growth, stable unemployment near 4.1%, and elevated inflation now projected at 3.7% PCE for 2026 amid energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Updated FOMC projections signal potential further hikes this year and steady policy through 2027, with no indications of financial stress or recession risks that historically trigger unscheduled easing. This backdrop underpins the 96.1% market-implied odds against an emergency cut before 2027, as traders price in continued data-dependent tightening rather than crisis response. Tail risks include a severe escalation in conflicts disrupting energy supplies or an abrupt labor market collapse, though neither appears imminent based on recent indicators.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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