Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting. This positioning reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and modest job gains, alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, where geopolitical oil price shocks have kept inflation elevated. Major institutions now forecast the first policy adjustments only in 2027, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing that embeds near-zero odds of near-term easing. While a sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial shock could still trigger unscheduled action, current data and hawkish forward guidance limit those scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$105,161 交易量
$105,161 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$105,161 交易量
$105,161 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting. This positioning reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and modest job gains, alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, where geopolitical oil price shocks have kept inflation elevated. Major institutions now forecast the first policy adjustments only in 2027, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing that embeds near-zero odds of near-term easing. While a sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial shock could still trigger unscheduled action, current data and hawkish forward guidance limit those scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$105,161結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting. This positioning reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and modest job gains, alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, where geopolitical oil price shocks have kept inflation elevated. Major institutions now forecast the first policy adjustments only in 2027, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing that embeds near-zero odds of near-term easing. While a sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial shock could still trigger unscheduled action, current data and hawkish forward guidance limit those scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$105,161結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 90.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven by the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting. This positioning reflects a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3% and modest job gains, alongside March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, where geopolitical oil price shocks have kept inflation elevated. Major institutions now forecast the first policy adjustments only in 2027, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing that embeds near-zero odds of near-term easing. While a sharp labor market deterioration or acute financial shock could still trigger unscheduled action, current data and hawkish forward guidance limit those scenarios.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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