SpaceX's June outcome commands a 68% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, and subsequent reporting of an early June roadshow followed by a mid-to-late month listing at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation. This positioning stems from projected 2026 revenue of $22–$24 billion—driven by Starlink's subscriber growth and launch cadence—aligning with standard IPO timelines post-filing, including an imminent public prospectus expected May 15–22. August at 21.9% and July at 9.2% capture potential SEC review delays or market volatility, while "No IPO before 2027" at just 5.3% signals strong skin-in-the-game optimism amid recent Starship milestones boosting fundamentals, though lockup and liquidity rules remain key resolution risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於六月 67%
8 月 21.8%
7 月 9.2%
2027 年前不會有 IPO 5.3%
$335,339 交易量
$335,339 交易量
五月
2%
六月
67%
7 月
9%
8 月
22%
9 月
3%
10 月
<1%
11 月
1%
12 月
<1%
2027 年前不會有 IPO
5%
六月 67%
8 月 21.8%
7 月 9.2%
2027 年前不會有 IPO 5.3%
$335,339 交易量
$335,339 交易量
五月
2%
六月
67%
7 月
9%
8 月
22%
9 月
3%
10 月
<1%
11 月
1%
12 月
<1%
2027 年前不會有 IPO
5%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
市場開放時間: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's June outcome commands a 68% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, and subsequent reporting of an early June roadshow followed by a mid-to-late month listing at a $1.75–$2 trillion valuation. This positioning stems from projected 2026 revenue of $22–$24 billion—driven by Starlink's subscriber growth and launch cadence—aligning with standard IPO timelines post-filing, including an imminent public prospectus expected May 15–22. August at 21.9% and July at 9.2% capture potential SEC review delays or market volatility, while "No IPO before 2027" at just 5.3% signals strong skin-in-the-game optimism amid recent Starship milestones boosting fundamentals, though lockup and liquidity rules remain key resolution risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions