Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (98.7% implied probability), driven by the absence of any SEC S-1 filing or official public offering announcement amid reports positioning a potential debut in Q4 2026 or later. The AI lab's explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion annual run rate—surpassing OpenAI—and investor bids exceeding $800 billion valuation underscore its private market strength, reducing urgency for a near-term listing in a volatile tech environment. Typical IPO timelines require months post-filing for roadshows and pricing, leaving scant window for resolution. A surprise S-1 submission or accelerated regulatory fast-track could challenge this, though frontier AI regulatory scrutiny adds hurdles. Watch for funding updates or leadership signals ahead of mid-year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年6月30日前未IPO 98.6%
6000億+ <1%
3,000–4,000 億 <1%
4,000–6,000 億 <1%
$1,290,604 交易量
$1,290,604 交易量
低於 1000 億
<1%
1000–2000 億美元
<1%
2,000–3,000 億
<1%
3,000–4,000 億
<1%
4,000–6,000 億
<1%
6000億+
1%
2026年6月30日前未IPO
99%
2026年6月30日前未IPO 98.6%
6000億+ <1%
3,000–4,000 億 <1%
4,000–6,000 億 <1%
$1,290,604 交易量
$1,290,604 交易量
低於 1000 億
<1%
1000–2000 億美元
<1%
2,000–3,000 億
<1%
3,000–4,000 億
<1%
4,000–6,000 億
<1%
6000億+
1%
2026年6月30日前未IPO
99%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (98.7% implied probability), driven by the absence of any SEC S-1 filing or official public offering announcement amid reports positioning a potential debut in Q4 2026 or later. The AI lab's explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion annual run rate—surpassing OpenAI—and investor bids exceeding $800 billion valuation underscore its private market strength, reducing urgency for a near-term listing in a volatile tech environment. Typical IPO timelines require months post-filing for roadshows and pricing, leaving scant window for resolution. A surprise S-1 submission or accelerated regulatory fast-track could challenge this, though frontier AI regulatory scrutiny adds hurdles. Watch for funding updates or leadership signals ahead of mid-year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions