Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, featuring a one-million-token context window and leading results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, have driven the strong trader consensus favoring the company at 69.3% implied probability. These large language models demonstrate superior agentic capabilities and reasoning on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 compared with competitors, widening the gap since their February rollout. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in select reasoning tasks, accounts for the secondary 21% positioning, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum. With the end-of-June resolution approaching, any new model previews or major benchmark updates from frontier labs could still alter the current ordering before final assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 69.4%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.4%
$5,903,764 交易量
$5,903,764 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
69%
21%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
微軟
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 69.4%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.4%
$5,903,764 交易量
$5,903,764 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$834,197 交易量
69%
$526,670 交易量
21%
OpenAI
$336,256 交易量
6%
xAI
$1,061,386 交易量
1%
Meta
$131,347 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$499,344 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$158,414 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$298,056 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$477,719 交易量
<1%
微軟
$151,593 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$155,108 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$375,767 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$359,620 交易量
<1%
美團
$377,558 交易量
<1%
百度
$160,727 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, featuring a one-million-token context window and leading results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, have driven the strong trader consensus favoring the company at 69.3% implied probability. These large language models demonstrate superior agentic capabilities and reasoning on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 compared with competitors, widening the gap since their February rollout. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in select reasoning tasks, accounts for the secondary 21% positioning, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum. With the end-of-June resolution approaching, any new model previews or major benchmark updates from frontier labs could still alter the current ordering before final assessment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$5,903,764結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, featuring a one-million-token context window and leading results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, have driven the strong trader consensus favoring the company at 69.3% implied probability. These large language models demonstrate superior agentic capabilities and reasoning on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 compared with competitors, widening the gap since their February rollout. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in select reasoning tasks, accounts for the secondary 21% positioning, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum. With the end-of-June resolution approaching, any new model previews or major benchmark updates from frontier labs could still alter the current ordering before final assessment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$5,903,764結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, featuring a one-million-token context window and leading results on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, have driven the strong trader consensus favoring the company at 69.3% implied probability. These large language models demonstrate superior agentic capabilities and reasoning on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 compared with competitors, widening the gap since their February rollout. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in select reasoning tasks, accounts for the secondary 21% positioning, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch in late April has not yet shifted momentum. With the end-of-June resolution approaching, any new model previews or major benchmark updates from frontier labs could still alter the current ordering before final assessment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions