Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside testing signals in LM Arena and Vertex AI deprecations hinting at an upgrade cycle. Google I/O on May 19-20 serves as the pivotal catalyst, matching historical patterns for major large language model announcements amid intensifying rivalry with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's February rollout and May 7 Flash-Lite GA provide recency context, fueling optimism for improved reasoning and tool calling, though unconfirmed status leaves room for typical delays before full availability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.1%
May 20 1.8%
$284,191 交易量
$284,191 交易量
2026-05-31
May 15
<1%
May 16
1%
May 17
1%
May 18
5%
May 19
90%
May 20
2%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.1%
May 20 1.8%
$284,191 交易量
$284,191 交易量
2026-05-31
May 15
$7,432 交易量
<1%
May 16
$6,495 交易量
1%
May 17
$8,391 交易量
1%
May 18
$34,236 交易量
5%
May 19
$105,235 交易量
90%
May 20
$15,414 交易量
2%
May 21
$9,674 交易量
1%
May 22
$11,236 交易量
1%
May 23
$3,483 交易量
<1%
May 24
$3,950 交易量
<1%
May 25
$2,915 交易量
<1%
May 26
$3,471 交易量
<1%
May 27
$3,941 交易量
<1%
May 28
$2,589 交易量
<1%
May 29
$1,918 交易量
<1%
May 30
$5,620 交易量
<1%
May 31
$5,006 交易量
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,166 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside testing signals in LM Arena and Vertex AI deprecations hinting at an upgrade cycle. Google I/O on May 19-20 serves as the pivotal catalyst, matching historical patterns for major large language model announcements amid intensifying rivalry with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's February rollout and May 7 Flash-Lite GA provide recency context, fueling optimism for improved reasoning and tool calling, though unconfirmed status leaves room for typical delays before full availability.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$284,191結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside testing signals in LM Arena and Vertex AI deprecations hinting at an upgrade cycle. Google I/O on May 19-20 serves as the pivotal catalyst, matching historical patterns for major large language model announcements amid intensifying rivalry with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's February rollout and May 7 Flash-Lite GA provide recency context, fueling optimism for improved reasoning and tool calling, though unconfirmed status leaves room for typical delays before full availability.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$284,191結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside testing signals in LM Arena and Vertex AI deprecations hinting at an upgrade cycle. Google I/O on May 19-20 serves as the pivotal catalyst, matching historical patterns for major large language model announcements amid intensifying rivalry with OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's February rollout and May 7 Flash-Lite GA provide recency context, fueling optimism for improved reasoning and tool calling, though unconfirmed status leaves room for typical delays before full availability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions