Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 91%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.3%
Alibaba <1%
$593,854 交易量
$593,854 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
91%
10%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.3%
Alibaba <1%
$593,854 交易量
$593,854 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$56,843 交易量
91%
$61,067 交易量
10%
OpenAI
$36,196 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$58,438 交易量
<1%
Meta
$40,184 交易量
<1%
xAI
$50,157 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$593,854結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$593,854結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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