Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 18%
Google 16%
xAI <1%
$114,342 交易量
$114,342 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
18%
16%
xAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 18%
Google 16%
xAI <1%
$114,342 交易量
$114,342 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$18,193 交易量
63%
OpenAI
$18,632 交易量
18%
$11,032 交易量
16%
xAI
$8,724 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$6,720 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$6,536 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$6,392 交易量
1%
Meta
$6,348 交易量
1%
Baidu
$6,786 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$7,026 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$7,869 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,116 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,546 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,909 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,512 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
交易量
$114,342結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$114,342結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s implied probability of 62.5% reflects recent benchmark leadership by its Claude Mythos Preview and Opus 4.6 large language models, which posted top scores on math-specific evaluations including FrontierMath, AIME 2025, and Humanity’s Last Exam as of mid-May 2026. These results stem from hybrid reasoning architectures and extended thinking modes that improve multi-step problem solving and self-correction over prior versions. OpenAI’s 18.5% and Google’s 15.5% positions capture competitive pressure from GPT-5.4 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro previews, which lead select reasoning subsets but trail on comprehensive math leaderboards. Trader consensus appears anchored in verifiable public benchmarks rather than unconfirmed internal progress, with resolution at month-end leaving limited room for late announcements to shift the current ordering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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