Recent advancements in large language models position Anthropic as the market favorite for third place, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases emphasizing constitutional AI safety, 1-million-token context windows, and strong benchmark results in coding and reasoning. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Ultra launch in April, featuring a 2-million-token multimodal context, sustains its close second-place standing through ecosystem integration and agentic features. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.5 Pro updates from late April have solidified top-tier status, reducing its odds for third, while xAI and others trail due to fewer recent capability jumps. Traders monitor May benchmark refreshes and any surprise releases before month-end for potential shifts in these implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 62%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.6%
xAI <1%
$91,022 交易量
$91,022 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
62%
39%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 62%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.6%
xAI <1%
$91,022 交易量
$91,022 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$13,906 交易量
62%
$10,719 交易量
39%
OpenAI
$6,960 交易量
2%
xAI
$7,489 交易量
1%
Baidu
$5,763 交易量
<1%
Meta
$5,612 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,372 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$7,346 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$5,510 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$3,740 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$2,555 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,779 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$3,618 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,613 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent advancements in large language models position Anthropic as the market favorite for third place, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases emphasizing constitutional AI safety, 1-million-token context windows, and strong benchmark results in coding and reasoning. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Ultra launch in April, featuring a 2-million-token multimodal context, sustains its close second-place standing through ecosystem integration and agentic features. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.5 Pro updates from late April have solidified top-tier status, reducing its odds for third, while xAI and others trail due to fewer recent capability jumps. Traders monitor May benchmark refreshes and any surprise releases before month-end for potential shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$91,022結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent advancements in large language models position Anthropic as the market favorite for third place, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases emphasizing constitutional AI safety, 1-million-token context windows, and strong benchmark results in coding and reasoning. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Ultra launch in April, featuring a 2-million-token multimodal context, sustains its close second-place standing through ecosystem integration and agentic features. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.5 Pro updates from late April have solidified top-tier status, reducing its odds for third, while xAI and others trail due to fewer recent capability jumps. Traders monitor May benchmark refreshes and any surprise releases before month-end for potential shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$91,022結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent advancements in large language models position Anthropic as the market favorite for third place, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases emphasizing constitutional AI safety, 1-million-token context windows, and strong benchmark results in coding and reasoning. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Ultra launch in April, featuring a 2-million-token multimodal context, sustains its close second-place standing through ecosystem integration and agentic features. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.5 Pro updates from late April have solidified top-tier status, reducing its odds for third, while xAI and others trail due to fewer recent capability jumps. Traders monitor May benchmark refreshes and any surprise releases before month-end for potential shifts in these implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions