Anthropic’s mid-April launch of Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored trader consensus, delivering clear leads on Arena leaderboards, SWE-bench coding tasks, and agentic benchmarks that outpace Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 by meaningful margins. The model’s stronger performance on complex, real-world workflows and lower hallucination rates in production evaluations have reinforced its frontrunner status through mid-May. With only two weeks left before the end-of-May resolution, the 92.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge, though a surprise Gemini update or OpenAI capability jump before the cutoff could still narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 93%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
字節跳動 <1%
$8,708,804 交易量
$8,708,804 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
93%
8%
OpenAI
1%
字節跳動
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
百度
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 93%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
字節跳動 <1%
$8,708,804 交易量
$8,708,804 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$633,862 交易量
93%
$576,805 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$727,186 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$535,902 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$543,195 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$506,231 交易量
<1%
Meta
$514,425 交易量
<1%
xAI
$658,069 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$517,535 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,917 交易量
<1%
百度
$469,793 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$403,756 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 交易量
<1%
美團
$311,904 交易量
<1%
微軟
$412,851 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s mid-April launch of Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored trader consensus, delivering clear leads on Arena leaderboards, SWE-bench coding tasks, and agentic benchmarks that outpace Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 by meaningful margins. The model’s stronger performance on complex, real-world workflows and lower hallucination rates in production evaluations have reinforced its frontrunner status through mid-May. With only two weeks left before the end-of-May resolution, the 92.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge, though a surprise Gemini update or OpenAI capability jump before the cutoff could still narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$8,708,804結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s mid-April launch of Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored trader consensus, delivering clear leads on Arena leaderboards, SWE-bench coding tasks, and agentic benchmarks that outpace Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 by meaningful margins. The model’s stronger performance on complex, real-world workflows and lower hallucination rates in production evaluations have reinforced its frontrunner status through mid-May. With only two weeks left before the end-of-May resolution, the 92.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge, though a surprise Gemini update or OpenAI capability jump before the cutoff could still narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$8,708,804結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s mid-April launch of Claude Opus 4.7 has anchored trader consensus, delivering clear leads on Arena leaderboards, SWE-bench coding tasks, and agentic benchmarks that outpace Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 by meaningful margins. The model’s stronger performance on complex, real-world workflows and lower hallucination rates in production evaluations have reinforced its frontrunner status through mid-May. With only two weeks left before the end-of-May resolution, the 92.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge, though a surprise Gemini update or OpenAI capability jump before the cutoff could still narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions