Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, driven primarily by the April 2026 release of Claude Opus 4.7 and its strong showing on style-controlled benchmarks that reward consistent tone, instruction following, and creative control in large language models. Google’s 22% reflects ongoing refinements to Gemini 3.1 Pro and its competitive reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 5.5% trails amid expectations for further GPT-5.5 tuning. xAI and DeepSeek remain lower at 2.5% and 1.1% due to narrower gaps on the specific style metrics tracked. Resolution hinges on June leaderboard data, with any new frontier releases or benchmark shifts likely to influence final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 68%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 交易量
$1,455,902 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
68%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
微軟
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
美團
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 交易量
$1,455,902 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$30,350 交易量
68%
$18,356 交易量
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 交易量
6%
xAI
$14,949 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$201,120 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$136,496 交易量
1%
微軟
$11,868 交易量
1%
Meta
$8,140 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$203,349 交易量
1%
美團
$270,689 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$59,334 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$17,641 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$12,804 交易量
<1%
百度
$8,606 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, driven primarily by the April 2026 release of Claude Opus 4.7 and its strong showing on style-controlled benchmarks that reward consistent tone, instruction following, and creative control in large language models. Google’s 22% reflects ongoing refinements to Gemini 3.1 Pro and its competitive reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 5.5% trails amid expectations for further GPT-5.5 tuning. xAI and DeepSeek remain lower at 2.5% and 1.1% due to narrower gaps on the specific style metrics tracked. Resolution hinges on June leaderboard data, with any new frontier releases or benchmark shifts likely to influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,455,902結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, driven primarily by the April 2026 release of Claude Opus 4.7 and its strong showing on style-controlled benchmarks that reward consistent tone, instruction following, and creative control in large language models. Google’s 22% reflects ongoing refinements to Gemini 3.1 Pro and its competitive reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 5.5% trails amid expectations for further GPT-5.5 tuning. xAI and DeepSeek remain lower at 2.5% and 1.1% due to narrower gaps on the specific style metrics tracked. Resolution hinges on June leaderboard data, with any new frontier releases or benchmark shifts likely to influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,455,902結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 67.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by end of June, driven primarily by the April 2026 release of Claude Opus 4.7 and its strong showing on style-controlled benchmarks that reward consistent tone, instruction following, and creative control in large language models. Google’s 22% reflects ongoing refinements to Gemini 3.1 Pro and its competitive reasoning scores, while OpenAI’s 5.5% trails amid expectations for further GPT-5.5 tuning. xAI and DeepSeek remain lower at 2.5% and 1.1% due to narrower gaps on the specific style metrics tracked. Resolution hinges on June leaderboard data, with any new frontier releases or benchmark shifts likely to influence final positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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