Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" at 53% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid a string of distractions from core AI priorities. January reports of an internal bot-resistant platform using biometric verification like Worldcoin sparked early optimism, but the March shutdown of OpenAI's Sora AI video-sharing app due to deepfake concerns eroded momentum, highlighting regulatory and safety hurdles in social media. Recent focus on enterprise expansions—such as the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched this week and rumored AI smartphone hardware for 2027—signals resource allocation away from consumer platforms. Key catalysts include Sam Altman's public roadmap updates or developer conferences through year-end, where feature demos or partnerships could decisively swing odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$45,636 交易量
$45,636 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$45,636 交易量
$45,636 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" at 53% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid a string of distractions from core AI priorities. January reports of an internal bot-resistant platform using biometric verification like Worldcoin sparked early optimism, but the March shutdown of OpenAI's Sora AI video-sharing app due to deepfake concerns eroded momentum, highlighting regulatory and safety hurdles in social media. Recent focus on enterprise expansions—such as the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched this week and rumored AI smartphone hardware for 2027—signals resource allocation away from consumer platforms. Key catalysts include Sam Altman's public roadmap updates or developer conferences through year-end, where feature demos or partnerships could decisively swing odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$45,636結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" at 53% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid a string of distractions from core AI priorities. January reports of an internal bot-resistant platform using biometric verification like Worldcoin sparked early optimism, but the March shutdown of OpenAI's Sora AI video-sharing app due to deepfake concerns eroded momentum, highlighting regulatory and safety hurdles in social media. Recent focus on enterprise expansions—such as the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched this week and rumored AI smartphone hardware for 2027—signals resource allocation away from consumer platforms. Key catalysts include Sam Altman's public roadmap updates or developer conferences through year-end, where feature demos or partnerships could decisively swing odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$45,636結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" at 53% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid a string of distractions from core AI priorities. January reports of an internal bot-resistant platform using biometric verification like Worldcoin sparked early optimism, but the March shutdown of OpenAI's Sora AI video-sharing app due to deepfake concerns eroded momentum, highlighting regulatory and safety hurdles in social media. Recent focus on enterprise expansions—such as the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched this week and rumored AI smartphone hardware for 2027—signals resource allocation away from consumer platforms. Key catalysts include Sam Altman's public roadmap updates or developer conferences through year-end, where feature demos or partnerships could decisively swing odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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