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icon for 2026年12月31日最富有的人？

2026年12月31日最富有的人？

icon for 2026年12月31日最富有的人？

2026年12月31日最富有的人？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

埃隆·馬斯克 96.4%

沃倫·巴菲特 1.1%

馬克·祖克柏 <1%

拉里·埃里森 <1%

Polymarket

$1,933,627 交易量

埃隆·馬斯克 96.4%

沃倫·巴菲特 1.1%

馬克·祖克柏 <1%

拉里·埃里森 <1%

Polymarket

$1,933,627 交易量

icon for 埃隆·馬斯克

埃隆·馬斯克

$196,716 交易量

96%

icon for 沃倫·巴菲特

沃倫·巴菲特

$92,785 交易量

1%

icon for 馬克·祖克柏

馬克·祖克柏

$133,858 交易量

<1%

icon for 拉里·埃里森

拉里·埃里森

$61,786 交易量

<1%

icon for 貝爾納·阿爾諾

貝爾納·阿爾諾

$369,153 交易量

<1%

icon for 傑夫·貝佐斯

傑夫·貝佐斯

$345,078 交易量

<1%

icon for 黃仁勳

黃仁勳

$180,859 交易量

<1%

icon for 史蒂夫·鮑爾默

史蒂夫·鮑爾默

$312,349 交易量

<1%

icon for 謝爾蓋·布林

謝爾蓋·布林

$89,152 交易量

<1%

icon for 拉里·佩奇

拉里·佩奇

$151,624 交易量

<1%

icon for 邁克爾·戴爾

邁克爾·戴爾

$268 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk's overwhelming market dominance at 96.4% reflects his massive lead in net worth, fueled by SpaceX's post-IPO valuation surge and Tesla's sustained equity strength through mid-2026. His combined stakes in these ventures, alongside xAI, have widened the gap to hundreds of billions over rivals like Larry Page or Jeff Bezos. Traders see limited scope for reversal before year-end, given the scale of his holdings and recent momentum from SpaceX trading. An upset would require a sharp, sustained decline in those key assets or extraordinary gains elsewhere, scenarios viewed as low-probability given current trajectories and historical patterns of wealth concentration at the top.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
交易量
$1,933,627
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk's overwhelming market dominance at 96.4% reflects his massive lead in net worth, fueled by SpaceX's post-IPO valuation surge and Tesla's sustained equity strength through mid-2026. His combined stakes in these ventures, alongside xAI, have widened the gap to hundreds of billions over rivals like Larry Page or Jeff Bezos. Traders see limited scope for reversal before year-end, given the scale of his holdings and recent momentum from SpaceX trading. An upset would require a sharp, sustained decline in those key assets or extraordinary gains elsewhere, scenarios viewed as low-probability given current trajectories and historical patterns of wealth concentration at the top.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
交易量
$1,933,627
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年12月31日最富有的人？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃隆·馬斯克" at 96%, followed by "沃倫·巴菲特" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年12月31日最富有的人？" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年12月31日最富有的人？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年12月31日最富有的人？" is "埃隆·馬斯克" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "沃倫·巴菲特" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年12月31日最富有的人？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.