The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>2.5% 39%
2.0–2.5% 35%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
低於0.5% 12.5%
$28,267 交易量
$28,267 交易量
2027-01-29
低於0.5%
13%
0.5–1.0%
11%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
25%
2.0–2.5%
35%
>2.5%
39%
>2.5% 39%
2.0–2.5% 35%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
低於0.5% 12.5%
$28,267 交易量
$28,267 交易量
2027-01-29
低於0.5%
$3,906 交易量
13%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 交易量
11%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 交易量
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 交易量
25%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 交易量
35%
>2.5%
$4,088 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$28,267結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,267結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions